TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
$347.35
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
US Watchlist · entry card
AVOIDAvoid for now: Trend Down. Re-check when the trend repairs.
Action levels
| Buy zone (breakout retest) | — | — | no confirmed breakout, so no retest zone |
| Profit-Taking Zone | $419.54–430.52 | +20.8% to +23.9% | wk low 08-28, 200-day SMA, 40-wk SMA |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $54.62 | -84.3% | trading downgrade |
| Trend stop · Friday close | below $53.28 | -84.7% | trend downgrade one state |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $407.48 | +17.3% | top of R1 (wk low 09-18, wk low 08-07) |
Trend at a glance
Trend Score (8–16 wk)
● Down
Score 28/100. Lags S&P and sector; below rising 40-wk.
Trading (10–20 day)
● Established Down
Below 50-day; daily RS vs S&P Est. Down.
Sluymer's view: Oversold; early bottoming at rising 200-day: “WDC’s weekly momentum is becoming oversold and WDC shows early signs of bottoming near its rising 200-day ma.” (Chartbook, Sep 29, 2026).
Watch this week: Fri Nov 6: breakout entry on a close above $407.48 (+17.3%); a Friday close below $53.28 (-84.7%) invalidates.
APPENDIX · WDC · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 28.3
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 2.0 + 1.0 = 3.0 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 14 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 28.3 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Down |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Down |
| Trend (confirmed) | Down |
✖ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 0/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Down → 10-02 Down → 10-09 Down → 10-16 Down → 10-23 Down → 10-30 Down. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 26.2
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 0.0 + 9.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 8 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — BOUNCE tag — oversold & turning up inside a down structure (no boost) | 2.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 6.7 / 20 |
| Raw | 26.2 (Established Down) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 26.2 Established Down |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✖ Close above 200-day SMA 0/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (WDC close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 5 Established Down (+) → | -16.42% | +11.43% | Early Up ≥ 436.09 · Est. Down < 433.77 |
| Trend · XLK | 5 Established Down (+) → | -14.32% | +12.71% | Early Up ≥ 424.39 · Est. Down < 422.13 |
| Trading · S&P | 5 Established Down (−) ↓ | -2.62% | -10.40% | Est. Up ≥ 414.15 (+19.2%) · Early Up ≥ 357.62 · Est. Down < 355.71 |
| Trading · XLK | 1 Established Up (−) ↑ | +0.63% | -6.07% | Est. Up ≥ 346.65 (-0.2%) · Est. Down < 337.29 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 347.35)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 466.15–475.66 | +34.2% to +36.9% | 50% 466.15 · wk high 09-25 475.66 |
| R2 | 419.54–430.52 | +20.8% to +23.9% | wk low 08-28 419.54 · 200-day SMA 420.19 · 40-wk SMA 422.24 · wk low 07-17 430.52 |
| R1 | 407.12–407.48 | +17.2% to +17.3% | wk low 09-18 407.12 · wk low 08-07 407.48 |
| S1 | 54.62–56.02 | -83.9% to -84.3% | wk high 2024-12-06 56.02 · wk high 2024-10-25 55.56 · wk high ’25-02-21 54.62 |
| S2 | 53.28–53.84 | -84.5% to -84.7% | wk high 2024-11-08 53.84 · wk high ’25-01-24 53.28 |
| S3 | 47.96–49.13 | -85.9% to -86.2% | wk low 2024-11-01 49.13 · wk low 2024-10-11 47.96 |
| ATH | 799.87 | +130.3% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 54.62 (-84.3%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 53.28–53.84.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 53.28 (-84.7%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 47.96–49.13.
- Trend vs S&P: above its 16-wk avg ≥ 436.09 · Est. Down < 433.77 (+24.9%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 414.15 · Early Up ≥ 357.62 · Est. Down < 355.71.
Sluymer context
- 2026-09-29 chartbook: “WDC’s weekly momentum is becoming oversold and WDC shows early signs of bottoming near its rising 200-day ma.”
Notes & caveats
US Watchlist entry card. Universe: Quant + Fund Scorecard US Watchlist (/home/box/hq-fundamentals-scorecard/latest.json, read-only). Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLK (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).