$312.49
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
US Watchlist · entry card
APPENDIX · TXN · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 80.2
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 15.4 + 7.7 = 23.1 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 25 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 80.2 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Up |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Up |
| Trend (confirmed) | Up |
✔ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 6/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 5/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Down → 10-02 Up → 10-09 Down → 10-16 Neutral → 10-23 Up → 10-30 Up. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 91.3
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 20.0 + 10.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 25 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — positive & rising | 25.0 / 25 |
| Band position | 11.3 / 20 |
| Raw | 91.3 (Established Up) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 91.3 Established Up |
| ✔ Close above 50-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 3/3 · ✔ Close above 100-day SMA 4/4 · ✔ Close above 200-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (TXN close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 2 Early Up (+) → | +9.44% | +9.95% | Est. Up ≥ 299.50 (-4.2%) · Early Up ≥ 274.70 · Est. Down < 273.24 |
| Trend · XLK | 2 Early Up (+) → | +12.30% | +11.21% | Est. Up ≥ 290.47 (-7.0%) · Early Up ≥ 267.10 · Est. Down < 265.68 |
| Trading · S&P | 1 Established Up (+) → | +8.39% | +1.85% | Est. Up ≥ 290.01 (-7.2%) · Est. Down < 218.74 |
| Trading · XLK | 1 Established Up (+) → | +11.93% | +6.78% | Est. Up ≥ 281.30 (-10.0%) · Est. Down < 218.74 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 312.49)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R1 | 331.51–334.03 | +6.1% to +6.9% | wk high 05-29 331.51 · ATH 06-22 334.03 |
| S1 | 287.83–289.62 | -7.3% to -7.9% | wk high 08-14 289.62 · wk high 04-24 287.83 |
| S2 | 272.01–275.78 | -11.7% to -13.0% | wk low 07-03 275.78 · wk low 06-12 273.88 · wk high 09-11 273.33 · wk low 10-23 272.01 |
| S3 | 260.83–264.74 | -15.3% to -16.5% | wk low 08-07 264.74 · 40-wk SMA 262.45 · 200-day SMA 260.83 |
| ATH | 334.03 | +6.9% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 287.83 (-7.9%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 272.01–275.78.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 272.01 (-13.0%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 260.83–264.74.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 299.50 (-4.2%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 274.70 · Est. Down < 273.24 (-12.6%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 290.01 · Est. Down < 218.74.
Sluymer context
- 2026-09-15 chartbook: “TXN – Analog semis were relatively resilient during this week’s semiconductor volatility with TXN oversold intermediate- term (weekly) and showing early signs of bottoming near its 50-62% retracement band above its 200-day ma.”
- 2026-09-22 chartbook: “TXN, similar to AMAT, is oversold with early signs of bottoming at key support near its rising 200-day ma.”
- 2026-10-06 chartbook: “TXN’s weekly momentum is also early in an upturn suggesting near-term pullbacks will be short lived.”
Notes & caveats
US Watchlist entry card. Universe: Quant + Fund Scorecard US Watchlist (/home/box/hq-fundamentals-scorecard/latest.json, read-only). Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLK (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
