TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
$855.10
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
US Watchlist · entry card
AVOIDAvoid for now: Trend Down. Re-check when the trend repairs.
Action levels
| Buy zone (breakout retest) | — | — | no confirmed breakout, so no retest zone |
| Profit-Taking Zone | $1011.77–1036.13 | +18.3% to +21.2% | wk high 07-24, wk high 08-21 |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $849.25 | -0.7% | trading downgrade |
| Trend stop · Friday close | below $804.00 | -6.0% | trend downgrade one state |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $902.60 | +5.6% | top of R1 (wk low 08-28, wk low 09-18) |
Trend at a glance
Trend Score (8–16 wk)
● Down
Score 38/100. Lags S&P and sector; above rising 40-wk.
Trading (10–20 day)
● Neutral
Below 50-day; daily RS vs S&P Est. Down.
Sluymer's view: Pulling back; support 895, stop band 672–783: “MU is also pulling back after a strong rebound from its July lows with support starting at 895 followed by a key band/stop loss range between 672-783.” (Chartbook, Oct 13, 2026).
Watch this week: Fri Nov 6: breakout entry on a close above $902.60 (+5.6%); a Friday close below $804.00 (-6.0%) invalidates.
APPENDIX · MU · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 38.3
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 2.0 + 1.0 = 3.0 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 20 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 38.3 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Down |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Down |
| Trend (confirmed) | Down |
✔ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 6/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Up → 10-02 Up → 10-09 Up → 10-16 Down → 10-23 Down → 10-30 Down. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 51.4
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 0.0 + 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 13 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — oversold & turning up (with structure) | 18.8 / 25 |
| Band position | 19.6 / 20 |
| Raw | 51.4 (Neutral) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 51.4 Neutral |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✔ Close above 200-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (MU close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 5 Established Down (+) → | -5.77% | +1.73% | Est. Up ≥ 958.05 (+12.0%) · Early Up ≥ 946.55 · Est. Down < 941.51 |
| Trend · XLK | 5 Established Down (+) → | -3.13% | +2.89% | Est. Up ≥ 929.42 (+8.7%) · Early Up ≥ 918.80 · Est. Down < 913.91 |
| Trading · S&P | 5 Established Down (−) → | -3.61% | -6.64% | Est. Up ≥ 1087.79 (+27.2%) · Early Up ≥ 888.85 · Est. Down < 884.11 |
| Trading · XLK | 5 Established Down (−) → | -0.39% | -2.13% | Est. Up ≥ 893.91 (+4.5%) · Early Up ≥ 861.54 · Est. Down < 856.93 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 855.10)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 1089.29–1108.72 | +27.4% to +29.7% | wk high 06-05 1089.29 · wk high 09-25 1108.72 |
| R2 | 1011.77–1036.13 | +18.3% to +21.2% | wk high 07-24 1011.77 · wk high 08-21 1036.13 |
| R1 | 887.61–902.60 | +3.8% to +5.6% | wk low 08-28 887.61 · wk low 09-18 902.60 |
| S1 | 849.25–854.35 | -0.1% to -0.7% | wk low 06-12 854.35 · wk low 10-23 849.25 |
| S2 | 804.00–818.67 | -4.3% to -6.0% | wk high 05-15 818.67 · wk low 07-17 804.00 |
| S3 | 737.88–758.90 | -11.3% to -13.7% | 40-wk SMA 758.90 · 200-day SMA 751.78 · wk low 07-31 737.88 |
| ATH | 1255.00 | +46.8% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 849.25 (-0.7%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 804.00–818.67.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 804.00 (-6.0%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 737.88–758.90.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 958.05 (+12.0%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 946.55 · Est. Down < 941.51 (+10.1%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 1087.79 · Early Up ≥ 888.85 · Est. Down < 884.11.
Sluymer context
- 2026-08-18 chartbook: “MU’s recovery continues from support near 800 with 1255 next resistance.”
- 2026-09-08 chartbook: “MU has held above support near its rising 20-week ma with a test of 1032 underway and 1255 next resistance.”
- 2026-09-15 chartbook: “MU remains in a choppy trading range stalling at 1032 last week while testing/holding important near-term support at 895 near its rising yellow 100-day moving average.”
- 2026-09-22 chartbook: “MU is beginning to resolve its August-September trading range to the upside consistent with a broader intermediate- term bottoming pattern across the semiconductor group.”
- 2026-09-29 chartbook: “MU is beginning to resolve its August-September trading range to the upside consistent with a broader intermediate- term bottoming pattern across the semiconductor group with a short-term pause underway.”
- 2026-10-13 chartbook: “MU is also pulling back after a strong rebound from its July lows with support starting at 895 followed by a key band/stop loss range between 672-783.”
Notes & caveats
US Watchlist entry card. Universe: Quant + Fund Scorecard US Watchlist (/home/box/hq-fundamentals-scorecard/latest.json, read-only). Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLK (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).