MRVL

APPENDIX · MRVL · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD

Scores · Trend 33.3

RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10)	0.0 + 0.0 = 0.0 / 30
Structure (6 checks)	20 / 30
Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60	33.3 / 100
Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45)	Down
Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays)	confirmed Up; Down pending 1/2
Trend (confirmed)	Up
✔ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 6/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5 Weekly raw states: 09-25 Up → 10-02 Up → 10-09 Up → 10-16 Down → 10-23 Neutral → 10-30 Down. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only).

Scores · Trading 29.1

RS (S&P 20 + sector 10)	0.0 + 0.0 / 30
Structure	8 / 25
Coppock (daily) — negative & falling	2.5 / 25
Band position	18.6 / 20
Raw	29.1 (Established Down)
Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2)	+0
Final	29.1 Established Down
✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✖ Close above 200-day SMA 0/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5

Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)

Horizon · benchmark	State	RS vs SMA	RS chg	Phase-transition price (MRVL close needed)
Trend · S&P	5 Established Down (−) ↓	-12.52%	-12.89%	Est. Up ≥ 231.34 (+34.5%) · Early Up ≥ 227.31 · Est. Down < 226.10
Trend · XLK	5 Established Down (−) ↓	-9.98%	-11.89%	Est. Up ≥ 224.35 (+30.5%) · Early Up ≥ 220.44 · Est. Down < 219.27
Trading · S&P	5 Established Down (−) →	-22.45%	-19.66%	Early Up ≥ 221.02 · Est. Down < 219.84
Trading · XLK	5 Established Down (−) →	-19.76%	-15.78%	Early Up ≥ 213.98 · Est. Down < 212.83

Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 171.97)

Band	Range	Distance	Tools in the cluster
R3	324.20–329.88	+88.5% to +91.8%	wk high 06-05 324.20 · ATH 06-18 329.88
R2	200.29–200.62	+16.5% to +16.7%	50% 200.29 · wk low 09-04 200.62
R1	184.11–186.12	+7.1% to +8.2%	200-day SMA 184.11 · 40-wk SMA 186.12
S1	169.70–170.84	-0.7% to -1.3%	wk high 04-24 170.84 · 61.8% 169.70
S2	126.15–127.48	-25.9% to -26.6%	wk high ’25-01-24 127.48 · wk high 2024-12-20 126.15
S3	109.78–111.55	-35.1% to -36.2%	wk low ’25-01-17 111.55 · wk low ’25-01-03 109.78
ATH	329.88	+91.8%	all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used)

Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)

Stops & phase transitions

Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 169.70 (-1.3%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 126.15–127.48.
Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 126.15 (-26.6%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 109.78–111.55.
Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 231.34 (+34.5%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 227.31 · Est. Down < 226.10 (+31.5%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
Trading vs S&P: Early Up ≥ 221.02 · Est. Down < 219.84.

Sluymer context

2026-09-08 chartbook: “MRVL is also in the early stages of establishing a secondary low near support at 200.”
2026-10-13 chartbook: “MRVL rallied over 50% from its July lows followed by an 18% correction followed by another 50% move in September-October with support just below the blue 50-day ma between 216-232.”

Notes & caveats

US Watchlist entry card. Universe: Quant + Fund Scorecard US Watchlist (/home/box/hq-fundamentals-scorecard/latest.json, read-only). Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLK (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).

Buy zone (breakout retest)	—	—	no confirmed breakout, so no retest zone
Profit-Taking Zone	$200.29–200.62	+16.5% to +16.7%	50% retr., wk low 09-04
Trading stop · daily close	below $169.70	-1.3%	trading downgrade
Trend stop · Friday close	below $126.15	-26.6%	trend downgrade one state
Breakout Buy Level	close above $186.12	+8.2%	top of R1 (200-day SMA, 40-wk SMA)

Action levels

Trend at a glance