$144.67
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
US Watchlist · entry card
APPENDIX · MRK · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 78.8
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 20.0 + 2.3 = 22.3 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 25 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 78.8 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Up |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Up |
| Trend (confirmed) | Up |
✔ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 6/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 5/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Up → 10-02 Up → 10-09 Up → 10-16 Up → 10-23 Up → 10-30 Up. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 64.2
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 20.0 + 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 15 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — positive but decelerating | 12.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 16.7 / 20 |
| Raw | 64.2 (Early Up) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 64.2 Early Up |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✔ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 3/3 · ✔ Close above 100-day SMA 4/4 · ✔ Close above 200-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✖ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 0/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (MRK close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 1 Established Up (+) → | +6.21% | +3.52% | Est. Up ≥ 141.90 (-1.9%) · Est. Down < 103.69 |
| Trend · XLV | 4 Early Down (−) → | -3.31% | -2.08% | Est. Up ≥ 155.61 (+7.6%) · Est. Down < 138.80 |
| Trading · S&P | 1 Established Up (+) ↑ | +0.69% | +0.84% | Est. Up ≥ 144.01 (-0.5%) · Est. Down < 129.63 |
| Trading · XLV | 5 Established Down (−) → | -2.93% | -1.12% | Est. Up ≥ 172.95 (+19.5%) · Early Up ≥ 148.95 · Est. Down < 148.16 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 144.67)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R1 | 153.57–156.92 | +6.2% to +8.5% | wk high 09-25 153.57 · wk high 10-23 154.02 · ATH 08-25 156.92 |
| S1 | 138.80–142.32 | -1.6% to -4.1% | wk low 09-18 142.32 · wk low 10-09 138.80 |
| S2 | 131.47–135.05 | -6.6% to -9.1% | wk high 07-31 135.05 · wk high 07-17 131.74 · 50% 131.47 |
| S3 | 127.07–130.29 | -9.9% to -12.2% | wk high 07-03 130.29 · 40-wk SMA 128.11 · 200-day SMA 127.07 |
| ATH | 156.92 | +8.5% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 138.80 (-4.1%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 131.47–135.05.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 131.47 (-9.1%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 127.07–130.29.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 141.90 (-1.9%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 141.90 · Est. Down < 103.69 (-28.3%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 144.01 · Est. Down < 129.63.
Sluymer context
- Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Notes & caveats
US Watchlist entry card. Universe: Quant + Fund Scorecard US Watchlist (/home/box/hq-fundamentals-scorecard/latest.json, read-only). Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLV (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
