$50.20
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
US Watchlist · entry card
| Buy zone (breakout retest) | — | — | no confirmed breakout, so no retest zone |
| Profit-Taking Zone | $53.10–54.37 | +5.8% to +8.3% | wk low 07-24, wk low ’25-08-15, wk low ’25-08-01 |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $49.37 | -1.7% | trading downgrade |
| Trend stop · Friday close | below $47.12 | -6.1% | trend downgrade one state |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $51.60 | +2.8% | top of R1 (wk low 2024-12-20, wk high 10-02) |
APPENDIX · MONRY · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 3.3
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 2.0 + 0.0 = 2.0 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 0 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 3.3 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Down |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Down |
| Trend (confirmed) | Down |
✖ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 0/6 · ✖ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 0/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 0/5 · ✖ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 0/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Down → 10-02 Down → 10-09 Down → 10-16 Down → 10-23 Down → 10-30 Down. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 46.4
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 20.0 + 7.7 / 30 |
| Structure | 0 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — BOUNCE tag — oversold & turning up inside a down structure (no boost) | 2.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 16.2 / 20 |
| Raw | 46.4 (Neutral) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 46.4 Neutral |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✖ Close above 200-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 0/3 · ✖ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 0/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (MONRY close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 5 Established Down (+) → | -7.61% | +0.85% | Early Up ≥ 51.65 · Est. Down < 51.38 |
| Trend · XLY | 5 Established Down (−) → | -9.33% | -2.73% | Est. Up ≥ 66.10 (+31.7%) · Early Up ≥ 52.77 · Est. Down < 52.49 |
| Trading · S&P | 1 Established Up (+) ↑ | +5.26% | +8.88% | Est. Up ≥ 47.76 (-4.9%) · Est. Down < 43.00 |
| Trading · XLY | 2 Early Up (+) ↑ | +1.63% | +5.71% | Est. Up ≥ 54.41 (+8.4%) · Early Up ≥ 49.34 · Est. Down < 49.08 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 50.20)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 54.82–56.38 | +9.2% to +12.3% | wk low ’25-09-12 54.82 · wk high 2024-12-13 55.35 · wk low ’25-10-17 56.04 · wk high 08-28 56.29 · wk low 06-26 56.31 · wk low 02-06 56.38 |
| R2 | 53.10–54.37 | +5.8% to +8.3% | wk low 07-24 53.10 · wk low ’25-08-15 53.24 · wk low ’25-08-01 53.27 · wk low ’25-04-11 53.51 · wk low 08-21 53.90 · wk low ’25-06-27 54.37 |
| R1 | 50.65–51.60 | +0.9% to +2.8% | wk low 2024-12-20 50.65 · wk high 10-02 51.60 |
| S1 | 49.37–50.06 | -0.3% to -1.7% | wk high 10-16 50.06 · wk low ’25-01-03 49.37 |
| S2 | 47.12–47.67 | -5.0% to -6.1% | wk low 2024-12-06 47.67 · wk low 10-09 47.56 · wk low 2024-11-15 47.12 |
| ATH | 71.79 | +43.0% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 49.37 (-1.7%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 47.12–47.67.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 47.12 (-6.1%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to the next lower level (none computed).
- Trend vs S&P: above its 16-wk avg ≥ 51.65 · Est. Down < 51.38 (+2.4%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 47.76 · Est. Down < 43.00.
Sluymer context
- Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Notes & caveats
US Watchlist entry card. Universe: Quant + Fund Scorecard US Watchlist (/home/box/hq-fundamentals-scorecard/latest.json, read-only). Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLY (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Short history: the 200-wk SMA is not available, so that structure check scores 0. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
