$230.72
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
US Watchlist · entry card
| Buy zone (breakout retest) | — | — | no confirmed breakout, so no retest zone |
| Profit-Taking Zone | $250.50–256.68 | +8.6% to +11.3% | wk low 07-31, 61.8% retr., wk high 01-30 |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $198.60 | -13.9% | trading downgrade |
| Trend stop · Friday close | below $167.15 | -27.6% | trend downgrade one state |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $241.60 | +4.7% | top of R1 (wk high 03-27, wk low 05-01) |
APPENDIX · LRCX · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 23.3
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 0.0 + 0.0 = 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 14 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 23.3 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Down |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Down |
| Trend (confirmed) | Down |
✖ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 0/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Down → 10-02 Up → 10-09 Down → 10-16 Down → 10-23 Down → 10-30 Down. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 14.1
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 0.0 + 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 3 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — BOUNCE tag — oversold & turning up inside a down structure (no boost) | 2.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 8.6 / 20 |
| Raw | 14.1 (Established Down) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 14.1 Established Down |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✖ Close above 200-day SMA 0/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✖ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 0/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (LRCX close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 5 Established Down (−) → | -19.16% | -8.46% | Early Up ≥ 295.08 · Est. Down < 293.51 |
| Trend · XLK | 5 Established Down (−) → | -16.95% | -7.41% | Early Up ≥ 286.52 · Est. Down < 284.99 |
| Trading · S&P | 5 Established Down (−) → | -6.86% | -7.49% | Early Up ≥ 245.97 · Est. Down < 244.65 |
| Trading · XLK | 5 Established Down (−) → | -3.72% | -3.02% | Early Up ≥ 238.41 · Est. Down < 237.14 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 230.72)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 263.71–265.37 | +14.3% to +15.0% | wk low 05-22 263.71 · wk low 09-18 265.37 |
| R2 | 250.50–256.68 | +8.6% to +11.3% | wk low 07-31 250.50 · 61.8% 251.25 · wk high 01-30 251.87 · wk high 02-27 256.68 |
| R1 | 241.37–241.60 | +4.6% to +4.7% | wk high 03-27 241.37 · wk low 05-01 241.60 |
| S1 | 198.60–204.57 | -11.3% to -13.9% | wk low 02-06 204.57 · wk low 04-03 198.60 |
| S2 | 167.15–170.76 | -26.0% to -27.6% | wk low 01-02 170.76 · wk high ’25-11-14 167.15 |
| S3 | 153.60–153.70 | -33.4% to -33.4% | wk high ’25-10-10 153.70 · wk low ’25-12-19 153.60 |
| ATH | 438.50 | +90.1% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 198.60 (-13.9%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 167.15–170.76.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 167.15 (-27.6%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 153.60–153.70.
- Trend vs S&P: above its 16-wk avg ≥ 295.08 · Est. Down < 293.51 (+27.2%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Early Up ≥ 245.97 · Est. Down < 244.65.
Sluymer context
- 2026-09-08 chartbook: “LRCX is establishing a secondary low near support with 316 followed by 345 next important resistance levels.”
- 2026-09-29 chartbook: “LRCX is also bottoming near support at its 200-day ma with weekly momentum moving back to oversold levels that should support a rebound in Q4.”
Notes & caveats
US Watchlist entry card. Universe: Quant + Fund Scorecard US Watchlist (/home/box/hq-fundamentals-scorecard/latest.json, read-only). Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLK (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
