$680.16
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
US Watchlist · entry card
APPENDIX · LITE · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 63.2
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 8.6 + 4.3 = 12.9 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 25 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 63.2 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Up |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Up |
| Trend (confirmed) | Up |
✔ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 6/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✔ No lower high vs cycle high 5/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Up → 10-02 Up → 10-09 Up → 10-16 Neutral → 10-23 Down → 10-30 Up. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 26.8
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 0.0 + 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 8 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — negative & falling | 2.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 16.2 / 20 |
| Raw | 26.8 (Established Down) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 26.8 Established Down |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✖ Close above 200-day SMA 0/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (LITE close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 4 Early Down (+) ↑ | -3.41% | +3.08% | Est. Up ≥ 881.12 (+29.5%) · Est. Down < 706.66 |
| Trend · XLK | 4 Early Down (+) → | -0.59% | +4.26% | Est. Up ≥ 854.42 (+25.6%) · Est. Down < 683.43 |
| Trading · S&P | 5 Established Down (−) → | -16.05% | -24.55% | Early Up ≥ 807.42 · Est. Down < 803.11 |
| Trading · XLK | 5 Established Down (−) → | -13.17% | -20.91% | Early Up ≥ 782.03 · Est. Down < 777.85 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 680.16)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 858.33–881.23 | +26.2% to +29.6% | 50% 858.33 · wk low 10-02 881.23 |
| R2 | 804.66–816.31 | +18.3% to +20.0% | 200-day SMA 804.66 · 40-wk SMA 816.31 |
| R1 | 776.01–791.15 | +14.1% to +16.3% | wk low 06-12 776.01 · wk low 05-01 780.48 · wk high 03-06 783.80 · wk low 08-28 784.47 · 61.8% 791.15 |
| S1 | 642.37–650.82 | -4.3% to -5.6% | wk low 07-17 650.82 · wk low 04-03 642.37 |
| S2 | 401.60–402.80 | -40.8% to -41.0% | wk high 01-09 402.80 · wk high ’25-12-26 401.60 |
| S3 | 309.07–317.44 | -53.3% to -54.6% | wk low 01-16 317.44 · wk low ’25-12-19 309.07 |
| ATH | 1143.00 | +68.0% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 642.37 (-5.6%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 401.60–402.80.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 401.60 (-41.0%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 309.07–317.44.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 881.12 (+29.5%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 881.12 · Est. Down < 706.66 (+3.9%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Early Up ≥ 807.42 · Est. Down < 803.11.
Sluymer context
- Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Notes & caveats
US Watchlist entry card. Universe: Quant + Fund Scorecard US Watchlist (/home/box/hq-fundamentals-scorecard/latest.json, read-only). Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLK (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
