$128.11
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
US Watchlist · entry card
APPENDIX · FTNT · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 45.5
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 0.0 + 2.3 = 2.3 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 25 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 45.5 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Neutral |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Up; Neutral pending 1/2 |
| Trend (confirmed) | Up |
✔ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 6/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✔ No lower high vs cycle high 5/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Up → 10-02 Up → 10-09 Up → 10-16 Up → 10-23 Up → 10-30 Neutral. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 13.2
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 0.0 + 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 6 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — negative & falling | 2.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 4.7 / 20 |
| Raw | 13.2 (Established Down) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 13.2 Established Down |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✔ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 3/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✖ Close above 200-day SMA 0/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✖ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 0/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (FTNT close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 5 Established Down (−) ↓ | -16.44% | -18.70% | Early Up ≥ 163.20 · Est. Down < 162.33 |
| Trend · XLK | 4 Early Down (−) ↓ | -14.14% | -17.77% | Early Up ≥ 158.47 · Est. Down < 157.62 |
| Trading · S&P | 5 Established Down (−) ↓ | -21.26% | -6.06% | Early Up ≥ 161.87 · Est. Down < 161.01 |
| Trading · XLK | 5 Established Down (−) ↓ | -18.54% | -1.52% | Early Up ≥ 156.74 · Est. Down < 155.90 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 128.11)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 148.25–150.07 | +15.7% to +17.1% | wk low 08-21 148.25 · wk high 06-05 150.07 |
| R2 | 133.05–136.57 | +3.9% to +6.6% | wk low 06-12 133.05 · 50% 136.57 |
| R1 | 128.90–129.71 | +0.6% to +1.2% | 200-day SMA 128.90 · 40-wk SMA 129.71 |
| S1 | 106.06–109.33 | -14.7% to -17.2% | wk high ’25-05-09 109.33 · wk high ’25-07-11 108.77 · wk high ’25-07-25 107.52 · wk high ’25-05-30 106.06 |
| S2 | 99.85–102.34 | -20.1% to -22.1% | wk high ’25-03-28 102.34 · wk high ’25-01-10 101.00 · wk high 2024-11-15 100.59 · wk high ’25-04-11 100.50 · wk high 2024-12-13 100.40 · wk low ’25-06-06 99.85 |
| S3 | 98.60–98.70 | -23.0% to -23.0% | wk low ’25-07-11 98.70 · wk low ’25-06-27 98.60 |
| ATH | 197.13 | +53.9% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 106.06 (-17.2%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 99.85–102.34.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 99.85 (-22.1%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 98.60–98.70.
- Trend vs S&P: above its 16-wk avg ≥ 163.20 · Est. Down < 162.33 (+26.7%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Early Up ≥ 161.87 · Est. Down < 161.01.
Sluymer context
- Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Notes & caveats
US Watchlist entry card. Universe: Quant + Fund Scorecard US Watchlist (/home/box/hq-fundamentals-scorecard/latest.json, read-only). Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLK (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
