$66.78
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
US Watchlist · entry card
APPENDIX · D · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 77.3
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 15.4 + 6.0 = 21.4 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 25 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 77.3 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Up |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Down; Up pending 1/2 |
| Trend (confirmed) | Down |
✔ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 6/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 5/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Down → 10-02 Down → 10-09 Down → 10-16 Down → 10-23 Down → 10-30 Up. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 88.0
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 20.0 + 10.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 22 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — positive & rising | 25.0 / 25 |
| Band position | 11.0 / 20 |
| Raw | 88.0 (Established Up) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 88.0 Established Up |
| ✔ Close above 50-day SMA 5/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✔ Close above 100-day SMA 4/4 · ✔ Close above 200-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (D close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 2 Early Up (+) ↑ | +2.19% | +5.91% | Est. Up ≥ 75.71 (+13.4%) · Early Up ≥ 64.90 · Est. Down < 64.55 |
| Trend · XLU | 3 Neutral (+) ↑ | -0.17% | +1.87% | Est. Up ≥ 68.71 (+2.9%) · Early Up ≥ 66.81 · Est. Down < 66.46 |
| Trading · S&P | 1 Established Up (+) → | +4.88% | +4.60% | Est. Up ≥ 64.00 (-4.2%) · Est. Down < 47.79 |
| Trading · XLU | 1 Established Up (+) → | +1.33% | +1.89% | Est. Up ≥ 66.12 (-1.0%) · Est. Down < 60.99 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 66.78)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 71.93–72.99 | +7.7% to +9.3% | wk high 07-31 71.93 · wk high 07-17 72.99 |
| R2 | 69.75–70.17 | +4.4% to +5.1% | wk high 08-21 69.75 · wk high 06-26 70.17 |
| R1 | 67.38–68.97 | +0.9% to +3.3% | wk low 07-03 67.38 · wk high 02-20 67.57 · wk high 05-22 68.97 |
| S1 | 64.03–66.00 | -1.2% to -4.1% | wk low 08-07 66.00 · wk high 05-01 65.61 · wk high 04-10 65.13 · 40-wk SMA 65.10 · 200-day SMA 64.87 · wk low 06-05 64.55 · wk high 03-20 64.03 |
| S2 | 61.04–62.87 | -5.9% to -8.6% | wk high ’25-11-28 62.87 · wk high ’25-10-17 62.52 · wk high ’25-08-22 62.46 · wk high ’25-08-08 62.26 · wk high 2024-11-01 61.97 · wk high 01-23 61.81 · wk high ’25-11-07 61.61 · wk low 05-08 61.04 |
| S3 | 59.09–60.77 | -9.0% to -11.5% | wk low 03-06 60.77 · wk high ’25-12-19 60.48 · wk low 04-24 60.44 · wk high 2024-11-29 60.27 · wk low ’25-11-21 60.18 · wk low ’25-10-10 60.02 · wk high 01-02 59.73 · wk low 02-06 59.53 · wk low 10-02 59.44 · wk low 03-20 59.09 |
| ATH | 90.89 | +36.1% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 64.03 (-4.1%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 61.04–62.87.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 61.04 (-8.6%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 59.09–60.77.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 75.71 (+13.4%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 64.90 · Est. Down < 64.55 (-3.3%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 64.00 · Est. Down < 47.79.
Sluymer context
- 2026-09-08 chartbook: “D line bears close monitoring over NYSE A-D line the coming weeks.”
- 2026-09-22 chartbook: “D line to begin improving in the coming weeks.”
Notes & caveats
US Watchlist entry card. Universe: Quant + Fund Scorecard US Watchlist (/home/box/hq-fundamentals-scorecard/latest.json, read-only). Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLU (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
