$180.25
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
US Watchlist · entry card
| Buy zone (breakout retest) | — | — | no confirmed breakout, so no retest zone |
| Profit-Taking Zone | $187.74–192.09 | +4.2% to +6.6% | wk high ’25-01-24, wk high 09-25, wk low 05-01 |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $175.47 | -2.7% | trading downgrade |
| Trend stop · Friday close | below $168.05 | -6.8% | trend downgrade one state |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $185.16 | +2.7% | top of R1 (wk high ’25-07-25, wk high ’25-10-24) |
APPENDIX · DLR · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 33.8
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 2.0 + 4.3 = 6.3 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 14 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 33.8 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Down |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Down |
| Trend (confirmed) | Down |
✖ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 0/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Down → 10-02 Down → 10-09 Down → 10-16 Down → 10-23 Down → 10-30 Down. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 69.4
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 20.0 + 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 8 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — positive & rising | 25.0 / 25 |
| Band position | 16.4 / 20 |
| Raw | 69.4 (Early Up) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 69.4 Early Up |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✖ Close above 200-day SMA 0/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (DLR close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 5 Established Down (+) → | -1.25% | +3.76% | Est. Up ≥ 183.90 (+2.0%) · Est. Down < 176.56 |
| Trend · XLRE | 4 Early Down (+) → | -1.17% | +0.29% | Est. Up ≥ 184.50 (+2.4%) · Est. Down < 159.79 |
| Trading · S&P | 1 Established Up (+) ↑ | +3.70% | +0.52% | Est. Up ≥ 174.65 (-3.1%) · Est. Down < 159.31 |
| Trading · XLRE | 5 Established Down (−) ↓ | -0.43% | -2.83% | Est. Up ≥ 198.47 (+10.1%) · Early Up ≥ 181.52 · Est. Down < 180.55 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 180.25)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 193.88–198.00 | +7.6% to +9.8% | wk high 2024-10-25 193.88 · wk high 06-26 197.03 · wk high 2024-11-29 198.00 |
| R2 | 187.74–192.09 | +4.2% to +6.6% | wk high ’25-01-24 187.74 · wk high 09-25 188.37 · wk low 05-01 191.56 · wk high 09-11 192.09 |
| R1 | 182.00–185.16 | +1.0% to +2.7% | wk high ’25-07-25 182.00 · wk high ’25-10-24 182.48 · 200-day SMA 183.48 · wk high 03-13 183.52 · 40-wk SMA 184.45 · wk high ’25-01-10 184.64 · wk high 02-13 184.79 · wk low 05-22 184.95 · wk high 10-09 185.10 · wk low 08-07 185.16 |
| S1 | 175.47–179.74 | -0.3% to -2.7% | wk low 09-04 179.74 · wk high ’25-06-27 178.85 · wk high ’25-06-13 178.71 · wk low 06-12 178.41 · wk high ’25-10-03 178.30 · 50% 177.18 · wk low 2024-12-20 175.78 · wk low 09-18 175.47 |
| S2 | 168.05–172.91 | -4.1% to -6.8% | wk low 03-13 172.91 · wk high ’25-02-21 172.11 · wk low 07-03 172.01 · wk low 2024-11-08 171.25 · wk low 07-17 171.03 · … +2 more · 61.8% 169.88 · wk high ’25-02-07 169.17 · wk low ’25-10-10 168.45 · wk low ’25-06-06 168.40 · wk low ’25-07-11 168.05 |
| S3 | 162.51–167.17 | -7.3% to -9.8% | wk low 10-16 167.17 · wk high ’25-12-05 166.00 · wk high 01-16 165.21 · wk low ’25-06-27 163.64 · wk low ’25-08-22 162.51 |
| ATH | 208.14 | +15.5% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 175.47 (-2.7%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 168.05–172.91.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 168.05 (-6.8%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 162.51–167.17.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 183.90 (+2.0%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 183.90 · Est. Down < 176.56 (-2.0%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 174.65 · Est. Down < 159.31.
Sluymer context
- Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Notes & caveats
US Watchlist entry card. Universe: Quant + Fund Scorecard US Watchlist (/home/box/hq-fundamentals-scorecard/latest.json, read-only). Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLRE (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
