$222.20
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
US Watchlist · entry card
| Buy zone (breakout retest) | — | — | no confirmed breakout, so no retest zone |
| Profit-Taking Zone | $233.51–237.24 | +5.1% to +6.8% | wk low ’25-10-03, wk low ’25-11-07, wk low ’25-09-05 |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $220.29 | -0.9% | trading downgrade |
| Trend stop · Friday close | below $193.56 | -12.9% | trend downgrade one state |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $232.77 | +4.8% | top of R1 (wk low ’25-08-15, wk low ’25-04-11) |
APPENDIX · CRM · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 71.7
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 18.0 + 9.0 = 27.0 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 16 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 71.7 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Up |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Up |
| Trend (confirmed) | Up |
✔ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 6/6 · ✖ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 0/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 5/5 · ✖ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 0/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Up → 10-02 Up → 10-09 Up → 10-16 Up → 10-23 Up → 10-30 Up. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 43.0
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 0.0 + 4.3 / 30 |
| Structure | 17 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — negative & falling | 2.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 19.1 / 20 |
| Raw | 43.0 (Early Down) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 43.0 Early Down |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✔ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 3/3 · ✔ Close above 100-day SMA 4/4 · ✔ Close above 200-day SMA 5/5 · ✖ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 0/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (CRM close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 1 Established Up (−) → | +4.87% | -3.79% | Est. Up ≥ 222.13 (-0.0%) · Est. Down < 155.54 |
| Trend · XLK | 1 Established Up (−) → | +7.77% | -2.69% | Est. Up ≥ 215.77 (-2.9%) · Est. Down < 155.54 |
| Trading · S&P | 5 Established Down (−) ↓ | -5.80% | -1.84% | Est. Up ≥ 239.74 (+7.9%) · Early Up ≥ 236.83 · Est. Down < 235.57 |
| Trading · XLK | 4 Early Down (+) ↓ | -2.68% | +2.90% | Est. Up ≥ 229.62 (+3.3%) · Est. Down < 191.66 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 222.20)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 251.36–258.00 | +13.1% to +16.1% | wk high ’25-09-26 251.36 · wk low ’25-12-19 252.11 · wk high 10-23 252.42 · wk low ’25-05-30 254.50 · wk low ’25-07-18 254.52 · wk low ’25-06-20 257.47 · wk high ’25-09-05 258.00 |
| R2 | 233.51–237.24 | +5.1% to +6.8% | wk low ’25-10-03 233.51 · wk low ’25-11-07 234.48 · wk low ’25-09-05 234.62 · wk high 01-30 235.74 · wk low ’25-09-19 237.24 |
| R1 | 226.48–232.77 | +1.9% to +4.8% | wk low ’25-08-15 226.48 · wk low ’25-04-11 230.00 · wk low ’25-04-25 232.77 |
| S1 | 220.29–221.96 | -0.1% to -0.9% | wk low ’25-11-21 221.96 · wk low 10-09 220.29 |
| S2 | 193.56–198.25 | -10.8% to -12.9% | 200-day SMA 198.25 · 40-wk SMA 197.26 · wk high 04-24 193.56 |
| S3 | 189.91–190.31 | -14.4% to -14.5% | wk high 05-08 190.31 · wk low 08-21 189.91 |
| ATH | 369.00 | +66.1% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 220.29 (-0.9%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 193.56–198.25.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 193.56 (-12.9%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 189.91–190.31.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 222.13 (-0.0%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 222.13 · Est. Down < 155.54 (-30.0%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 239.74 · Early Up ≥ 236.83 · Est. Down < 235.57.
Sluymer context
- Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Notes & caveats
US Watchlist entry card. Universe: Quant + Fund Scorecard US Watchlist (/home/box/hq-fundamentals-scorecard/latest.json, read-only). Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLK (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
