$263.40
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
US Watchlist · entry card
| Buy zone (breakout retest) | — | — | no confirmed breakout, so no retest zone |
| Profit-Taking Zone | $276.84–282.77 | +5.1% to +7.4% | wk low 04-24, wk low 03-20, 40-wk SMA |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $256.10 | -2.8% | trading downgrade |
| Trend stop · Friday close | below $243.30 | -7.6% | trend downgrade one state |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $268.00 | +1.7% | top of R1 (wk low 04-03, wk low 08-21) |
APPENDIX · CEG · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 19.8
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 4.6 + 2.3 = 6.9 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 5 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 19.8 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Down |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Down |
| Trend (confirmed) | Down |
✖ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 0/6 · ✖ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 0/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✖ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 0/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Down → 10-02 Down → 10-09 Up → 10-16 Up → 10-23 Down → 10-30 Down. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 25.7
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 15.4 + 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 0 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — BOUNCE tag — oversold & turning up inside a down structure (no boost) | 2.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 7.8 / 20 |
| Raw | 25.7 (Established Down) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 25.7 Established Down |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✖ Close above 200-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 0/3 · ✖ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 0/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (CEG close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 4 Early Down (−) → | -2.23% | -2.30% | Est. Up ≥ 269.87 (+2.5%) · Est. Down < 245.69 |
| Trend · XLU | 4 Early Down (−) → | -4.73% | -6.03% | Est. Up ≥ 278.35 (+5.7%) · Est. Down < 220.71 |
| Trading · S&P | 2 Early Up (+) ↑ | +1.57% | +1.55% | Est. Up ≥ 324.27 (+23.1%) · Early Up ≥ 258.97 · Est. Down < 257.59 |
| Trading · XLU | 5 Established Down (−) → | -1.96% | -1.09% | Early Up ≥ 267.79 · Est. Down < 266.36 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 263.40)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 286.00–293.15 | +8.6% to +11.3% | wk low ’25-06-06 286.00 · wk high 08-14 287.00 · 50% 287.03 · wk high 2024-10-11 288.75 · wk low ’25-09-05 293.15 |
| R2 | 276.84–282.77 | +5.1% to +7.4% | wk low 04-24 276.84 · wk low 03-20 277.86 · 40-wk SMA 279.06 · 200-day SMA 279.40 · wk high 07-24 279.60 · wk high 06-19 282.77 |
| R1 | 264.74–268.00 | +0.5% to +1.7% | wk low 04-03 264.74 · wk low 08-21 264.82 · wk high 2024-11-29 267.13 · wk low 09-04 268.00 |
| S1 | 256.10–259.09 | -1.6% to -2.8% | wk low ’25-01-31 259.09 · 61.8% 257.37 · wk low 05-22 256.10 |
| S2 | 243.30–249.05 | -5.4% to -7.6% | wk low 2024-10-11 249.05 · wk low 10-02 247.20 · wk low 02-06 243.30 |
| S3 | 228.63–231.15 | -12.2% to -13.2% | wk high ’25-03-28 231.15 · wk low 07-03 228.63 |
| ATH | 412.70 | +56.7% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 256.10 (-2.8%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 243.30–249.05.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 243.30 (-7.6%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 228.63–231.15.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 269.87 (+2.5%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 269.87 · Est. Down < 245.69 (-6.7%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 324.27 · Early Up ≥ 258.97 · Est. Down < 257.59.
Sluymer context
- Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Notes & caveats
US Watchlist entry card. Universe: Quant + Fund Scorecard US Watchlist (/home/box/hq-fundamentals-scorecard/latest.json, read-only). Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLU (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
