$1552.14
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
US Watchlist · entry card
APPENDIX · ASML · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 23.3
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 0.0 + 0.0 = 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 14 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 23.3 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Down |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Down |
| Trend (confirmed) | Down |
✖ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 0/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Neutral → 10-02 Up → 10-09 Neutral → 10-16 Down → 10-23 Down → 10-30 Down. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 33.1
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 0.0 + 5.7 / 30 |
| Structure | 8 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — BOUNCE tag — oversold & turning up inside a down structure (no boost) | 2.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 16.9 / 20 |
| Raw | 33.1 (Early Down) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 33.1 Early Down |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✖ Close above 200-day SMA 0/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (ASML close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 5 Established Down (−) → | -7.81% | -3.61% | Est. Up ≥ 2008.80 (+29.4%) · Early Up ≥ 1698.00 · Est. Down < 1688.95 |
| Trend · XLK | 5 Established Down (−) → | -5.35% | -2.50% | Est. Up ≥ 1957.40 (+26.1%) · Early Up ≥ 1650.00 · Est. Down < 1641.20 |
| Trading · S&P | 5 Established Down (−) → | -2.61% | -5.52% | Est. Up ≥ 1896.65 (+22.2%) · Early Up ≥ 1596.30 · Est. Down < 1587.80 |
| Trading · XLK | 2 Early Up (−) ↑ | +0.62% | -0.96% | Est. Up ≥ 1549.10 (-0.2%) · Early Up ≥ 1547.60 · Est. Down < 1539.35 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 1552.14)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 1873.50–1896.35 | +20.7% to +22.2% | wk high 10-02 1873.50 · wk high 08-21 1896.35 |
| R2 | 1703.40–1730.29 | +9.7% to +11.5% | wk low 07-17 1703.40 · wk low 06-26 1730.29 |
| R1 | 1572.84–1619.34 | +1.3% to +4.3% | wk low 09-18 1572.84 · 200-day SMA 1599.17 · 40-wk SMA 1603.48 · wk low 09-04 1619.34 |
| S1 | 1530.64–1547.22 | -0.3% to -1.4% | wk high 02-27 1547.22 · wk high 04-17 1531.98 · wk low 07-31 1530.64 |
| S2 | 1473.03–1493.48 | -3.8% to -5.1% | wk high 01-30 1493.48 · 50% 1473.03 |
| S3 | 1413.28–1441.31 | -7.1% to -8.9% | wk low 05-22 1441.31 · wk high 03-27 1413.28 |
| ATH | 1999.96 | +28.9% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 1530.64 (-1.4%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 1473.03–1493.48.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 1473.03 (-5.1%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 1413.28–1441.31.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 2008.80 (+29.4%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 1698.00 · Est. Down < 1688.95 (+8.8%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 1896.65 · Early Up ≥ 1596.30 · Est. Down < 1587.80.
Sluymer context
- 2026-09-08 chartbook: “ASML is oversold short-term (daily) with a rebound taking hold from 1624 support.”
Notes & caveats
US Watchlist entry card. Universe: Quant + Fund Scorecard US Watchlist (/home/box/hq-fundamentals-scorecard/latest.json, read-only). Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLK (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
