$381.92
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
US Watchlist · entry card
| Buy zone (breakout retest) | — | — | no confirmed breakout, so no retest zone |
| Profit-Taking Zone | $411.51–420.50 | +7.7% to +10.1% | wk low 09-18, 61.8% retr., wk high 04-24 |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $372.80 | -2.4% | trading downgrade |
| Trend stop · Friday close | below $316.66 | -17.1% | trend downgrade one state |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $407.29 | +6.6% | top of R1 (wk high 02-27, wk low 05-22) |
APPENDIX · AMAT · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 23.3
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 0.0 + 0.0 = 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 14 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 23.3 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Down |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Down |
| Trend (confirmed) | Down |
✖ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 0/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Neutral → 10-02 Up → 10-09 Down → 10-16 Down → 10-23 Down → 10-30 Down. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 23.6
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 0.0 + 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 3 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — BOUNCE tag — oversold & turning up inside a down structure (no boost) | 2.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 18.1 / 20 |
| Raw | 23.6 (Established Down) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 23.6 Established Down |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✖ Close above 200-day SMA 0/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✖ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 0/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (AMAT close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 5 Established Down (−) → | -17.52% | -3.69% | Early Up ≥ 469.84 · Est. Down < 467.34 |
| Trend · XLK | 5 Established Down (−) → | -15.33% | -2.59% | Early Up ≥ 456.53 · Est. Down < 454.10 |
| Trading · S&P | 5 Established Down (−) → | -3.70% | -7.61% | Early Up ≥ 394.68 · Est. Down < 392.58 |
| Trading · XLK | 5 Established Down (−) → | -0.47% | -3.15% | Early Up ≥ 382.60 · Est. Down < 380.56 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 381.92)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 426.13–436.33 | +11.6% to +14.2% | wk low 09-04 426.13 · wk low 07-31 436.33 |
| R2 | 411.51–420.50 | +7.7% to +10.1% | wk low 09-18 411.51 · 61.8% 415.73 · wk high 04-24 420.50 |
| R1 | 395.95–407.29 | +3.7% to +6.6% | wk high 02-27 395.95 · wk low 05-22 397.37 · wk high 04-10 407.29 |
| S1 | 372.80–379.99 | -0.5% to -2.4% | wk high 03-27 379.99 · wk low 05-01 377.07 · wk low 10-23 372.80 |
| S2 | 316.66–320.69 | -16.0% to -17.1% | wk low 04-03 320.69 · wk low 03-13 316.66 |
| S3 | 242.50–246.92 | -35.3% to -36.5% | wk low ’25-12-19 246.92 · wk high ’25-10-31 242.50 |
| ATH | 739.67 | +93.7% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 372.80 (-2.4%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 316.66–320.69.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 316.66 (-17.1%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 242.50–246.92.
- Trend vs S&P: above its 16-wk avg ≥ 469.84 · Est. Down < 467.34 (+22.4%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Early Up ≥ 394.68 · Est. Down < 392.58.
Sluymer context
- 2026-09-08 chartbook: “AMAT has been weaker than LRCX but it too is oversold short-term with a trading developing near support at its rising red 200-day moving average.”
- 2026-09-15 chartbook: “AMAT and NVDA. Interestingly, analog semis that have early signs of stalling short-term after recent rallies lagged, such as TXN, were notably resilient the past week with toward resistance.”
- 2026-09-15 chartbook: “AMAT extended its correction to a lower low challenging its next important support level at 408 coinciding with key retracement levels and its rising red 200-day ma.”
- 2026-09-22 chartbook: “AMAT remains notably weak into September, but it too is oversold with early signs of bottoming at key support at its 50-62% retracement band coinciding with its rising 40-week ma.”
- 2026-09-29 chartbook: “AMAT’s oversold rebound from support at its 200-day ma continues as it tests next resistance at its 50-day ma just below 490 with 534 next resistance.”
- 2026-10-06 chartbook: “AMAT has bottomed at its rising red 40-week ma, and while becoming overbought short-term we expect pullbacks to be short lived with first support near the rising blue 50-day ma.”
- 2026-10-13 chartbook: “AMAT is pulling back after a 32% rebound with support between 462-478 at its 50-62% retracement levels. 40”
Notes & caveats
US Watchlist entry card. Universe: Quant + Fund Scorecard US Watchlist (/home/box/hq-fundamentals-scorecard/latest.json, read-only). Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLK (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
