AEP
American Electric Power
$129.86
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
US Watchlist · entry card
APPENDIX · AEP · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 74.0
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 15.4 + 9.0 = 24.4 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 20 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 74.0 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Up |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Up |
| Trend (confirmed) | Up |
✔ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 6/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 5/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✖ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 0/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Down → 10-02 Down → 10-09 Down → 10-16 Up → 10-23 Up → 10-30 Up. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 66.1
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 20.0 + 2.3 / 30 |
| Structure | 25 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — positive but rolling over from >80th pctile | 6.2 / 25 |
| Band position | 12.5 / 20 |
| Raw | 66.1 (Early Up) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 66.1 Early Up |
| ✔ Close above 50-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 3/3 · ✔ Close above 100-day SMA 4/4 · ✔ Close above 200-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (AEP close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 2 Early Up (+) → | +4.81% | +3.49% | Est. Up ≥ 139.62 (+7.5%) · Early Up ≥ 123.90 · Est. Down < 123.24 |
| Trend · XLU | 1 Established Up (−) → | +2.32% | -0.46% | Est. Up ≥ 127.62 (-1.7%) · Est. Down < 126.37 |
| Trading · S&P | 1 Established Up (+) → | +2.61% | +2.41% | Est. Up ≥ 127.11 (-2.1%) · Est. Down < 105.30 |
| Trading · XLU | 4 Early Down (−) ↓ | -0.89% | -0.25% | Est. Up ≥ 131.70 (+1.4%) · Early Up ≥ 131.37 · Est. Down < 130.67 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 129.86)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R2 | 137.74–140.58 | +6.1% to +8.3% | wk high 04-10 137.74 · wk high 05-08 139.44 · ATH 07-07 140.58 |
| R1 | 131.20–135.00 | +1.0% to +4.0% | wk low 04-24 131.20 · wk high 05-29 132.12 · wk high 02-27 134.60 · wk high 03-20 135.00 |
| S1 | 125.08–128.68 | -0.9% to -3.7% | 40-wk SMA 128.68 · wk high 08-21 128.62 · 200-day SMA 128.22 · 50% 126.56 · wk high 09-11 126.34 · wk low 03-20 125.08 |
| S2 | 122.85–124.80 | -3.9% to -5.4% | wk high ’25-11-21 124.80 · wk low 05-15 124.68 · wk low 06-05 123.74 · 61.8% 123.25 · wk high ’25-10-31 122.85 |
| S3 | 120.06–120.46 | -7.2% to -7.5% | wk high ’25-10-17 120.46 · wk low 08-28 120.06 |
| ATH | 140.58 | +8.3% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 125.08 (-3.7%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 122.85–124.80.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 122.85 (-5.4%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 120.06–120.46.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 139.62 (+7.5%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 123.90 · Est. Down < 123.24 (-5.1%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 127.11 · Est. Down < 105.30.
Sluymer context
- Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Notes & caveats
US Watchlist entry card. Universe: Quant + Fund Scorecard US Watchlist (/home/box/hq-fundamentals-scorecard/latest.json, read-only). Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLU (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
