TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
XOM
Exxon Mobil · held position
Last Price $177.46
Unrealized G/L +17.6% (+$6,614)
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
Portfolio weight 1.28% (US)
HOLDKeep the full position: trend Up, Friday close above the 40-wk SMA ($155.36). Profit-Taking is reference only.
Trend health
Trend Score (8–16 wk)
● Up
Score 100/100. Leads S&P and sector; above rising 40-wk.
Opportunity cost (relative strength, weekly)
Leading the S&P 500 for 12 weeks (+25.2% relative)
Leading energy (XLE) for 6 weeks (+5.2% relative)
Key levels for holders
Breakout Level
confirms hold | Friday close above $188.50 | +6.2% | top of R1 (ATH 10-30) |
Profit-Taking Zone (ref.)
reference · rebalance if overweight | — | blue sky | none: blue sky above the Breakout |
Trade Breakdown
review thesis, no trade | Friday close below $155.36 | -12.5% | 40-wk SMA 155.36 |
Trend Breakdown (ref.)
reference · no verdict impact | Friday close below $159.07 | -10.4% | trend stop; next support $154.91–156.93 |
If broken, then…
Trade Breakdown (40-wk SMA; Friday close < $155.36): review the thesis (earnings, estimates, guidance). No trade yet.
Trend Breakdown (reference only) (Friday close < $159.07): no verdict impact; reassess if the story has also weakened. Next support $154.91–156.93.
Sluymer's view: Partly agrees. “XOM’s longer-term profile remains positive but with a pullback from resistance underway. Key support… between 148-152” (CB Sep 22).
Watch this week: Fri Nov 6: a Friday close ≥ $163.90 (-7.6%) keeps RS vs the S&P at Est. Up or better; a Friday close below the 40-wk SMA $155.36 is the Trade Breakdown.
APPENDIX · XOM · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARDHeld-card Trade Breakdown level = 40-wk SMA 155.36.
For adding / new entries (not used for held-position decisions)
| Level | Price | From close | Note |
|---|
| Buy zone | $168.64–169.64 | -4.4% to -5.0% | wk high 09-18, wk high 08-21 |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $168.64 | -5.0% | trading downgrade one state; re-anchor to S2 159.07–163.68 |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $188.50 | +6.2% | top of R1 (ATH 10-30) |
| Trading (10–20 day) state | Early Up: Above 50-day; daily RS vs S&P Neutral. |
Scores · Trend 100.0
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 20.0 + 10.0 = 30.0 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 30 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 100.0 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Up |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Up |
| Trend (confirmed) | Up |
✔ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 6/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✔ No lower high vs cycle high 5/5 · ✔ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 5/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Up → 10-02 Up → 10-09 Up → 10-16 Up → 10-23 Up → 10-30 Up. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 61.6
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 8.0 + 9.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 25 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — positive but rolling over from >80th pctile | 6.2 / 25 |
| Band position | 13.4 / 20 |
| Raw | 61.6 (Early Up) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 61.6 Early Up |
| ✔ Close above 50-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 3/3 · ✔ Close above 100-day SMA 4/4 · ✔ Close above 200-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (XOM close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 1 Established Up (+) → | +15.15% | +5.72% | Est. Up ≥ 163.90 (-7.6%) · Est. Down < 124.22 |
| Trend · XLE | 1 Established Up (+) → | +3.22% | +1.96% | Est. Up ≥ 182.08 (+2.6%) · Est. Down < 168.19 |
| Trading · S&P | 3 Neutral (−) ↓ | -0.06% | -1.24% | Est. Up ≥ 178.33 (+0.5%) · Est. Down < 151.49 |
| Trading · XLE | 1 Established Up (−) → | +0.74% | -0.23% | Est. Up ≥ 176.74 (-0.4%) · Est. Down < 165.55 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 177.46)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R1 | 188.50–188.50 | +6.2% to +6.2% | ATH 10-30 188.50 |
| S1 | 168.64–169.64 | -4.4% to -5.0% | wk high 09-18 169.64 · wk high 08-21 168.64 |
| S2 | 159.07–163.68 | -7.8% to -10.4% | wk high 05-22 163.68 · 50% 161.72 · wk high 03-06 159.61 · wk high 07-31 159.07 |
| S3 | 154.91–156.93 | -11.6% to -12.7% | wk high 02-13 156.93 · wk low 09-25 155.85 · wk high 05-01 155.69 · 61.8% 155.41 · 40-wk SMA 155.36 · wk low 08-28 155.32 · 200-day SMA 155.09 · wk high 06-05 154.91 |
| ATH | 188.50 | +6.2% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 168.64 (-5.0%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 159.07–163.68.
- Trend Breakdown (reference, S2 floor): Friday close < 159.07 (-10.4%): information only, no verdict impact. Next support S3 154.91–156.93.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 163.90 (-7.6%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 163.90 · Est. Down < 124.22 (-30.0%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 178.33 · Est. Down < 151.49.
Sluymer context
- CB Sep 22: Energy stocks “remain in positive long-term technical profiles but most are pulling back from short-term overbought levels… illustrated by MPC, XOM and CVX.”
- CB Sep 22 p49: “XOM’s longer-term profile remains positive but with a pullback from resistance underway. Key support is near the 50-62% retracement levels between 148-152.”
- CB Oct 13 sector table: XLE relative to the S&P is Est. Up / Early Up (tactical / trading).
- CB Oct 13: semis pulling back but “premature to conclude… the beginning of a bear market”; the Weekly Quadrant Balance “is moving toward oversold levels with early signs of bottoming”.
- CB Oct 13: rising rates remain “the second obvious risk”; key S&P support 7508, resistance 7817 then 8053; US 10-yr “beginning to stall at its next extension level at 5.35%”.
Notes & caveats
Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLE (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Holder levels (simple S/R: 40-wk SMA, 200-day SMA, 50%/61.8% retracements, 2-yr weekly swings and prior breakouts, ATH; ≥2 tools within 3% per band): Breakout = top of R1; Profit-Taking = next band above it, else the ATH, else none (blue sky); Trade Breakdown = the 40-wk SMA (Friday close below it = flag, verdict REVIEW); Trend Breakdown (S2 floor) and Profit-Taking are reference only and do not change the verdict. Trend Score (8–16 wk) = relative strength (30 pts) + structure (30 pts) rescaled to 100: Up ≥ 60, Neutral 45–59, Down < 45, confirmed after two consecutive Friday closes; descriptive, not a forecast. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).