XLV · Technical Trading Scorecard

APPENDIX · XLV · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD

Held-card Trade Breakdown level = 40-wk SMA 158.96.

For adding / new entries (not used for held-position decisions)

Level	Price	From close	Note
Buy zone	$171.87–176.60	-4.0% to -6.6%	wk high 08-21, wk high 10-02
Trading stop · daily close	below $171.87	-6.6%	trading downgrade one state; re-anchor to S2 164.98–168.53
Breakout Buy Level	close above $187.99	+2.2%	top of R1 (ATH 10-30)
Trading (10–20 day) state	Early Up: Above 50-day; daily RS vs S&P Est. Up.

Scores · Trend 100.0

RS vs S&P (20); no sector benchmark for this ETF	20.0 / 20
Structure (6 checks)	30 / 30
Score = (RS + structure) × 100/50	100.0 / 100
Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45)	Up
Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays)	confirmed Up
Trend (confirmed)	Up
✔ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 6/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✔ No lower high vs cycle high 5/5 · ✔ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 5/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5 Weekly raw states: 09-25 Up → 10-02 Up → 10-09 Up → 10-16 Up → 10-23 Up → 10-30 Up. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only).

Scores · Trading 70.8

RS (S&P 20 + sector 10)	20.0 + 10.0 / 30
Structure	25 / 25
Coppock (daily) — positive but rolling over from >80th pctile	6.2 / 25
Band position	9.6 / 20
Raw	70.8 (Early Up)
Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2)	+0
Final	70.8 Early Up
✔ Close above 50-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 3/3 · ✔ Close above 100-day SMA 4/4 · ✔ Close above 200-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5

Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)

Horizon · benchmark	State	RS vs SMA	RS chg	Phase-transition price (XLV close needed)
Trend · S&P	1 Established Up (+) →	+9.84%	+5.71%	Est. Up ≥ 169.07 (-8.1%) · Est. Down < 139.81
Trend · S&P 500	1 Established Up (+) →	+9.84%	+5.71%	Est. Up ≥ 169.07 (-8.1%) · Est. Down < 139.81
Trading · S&P	1 Established Up (+) →	+3.70%	+1.99%	Est. Up ≥ 178.42 (-3.0%) · Est. Down < 132.55
Trading · S&P 500	1 Established Up (+) →	+3.70%	+1.99%	Est. Up ≥ 178.42 (-3.0%) · Est. Down < 132.55

Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 184.02)

Band	Range	Distance	Tools in the cluster
R1	187.99–187.99	+2.2% to +2.2%	ATH 10-30 187.99
S1	171.87–176.60	-4.0% to -6.6%	wk high 08-21 176.60 · wk high 10-02 171.87
S2	164.98–168.53	-8.4% to -10.3%	wk high 07-31 168.53 · wk high 07-10 165.61 · wk low 10-09 165.19 · wk low 09-11 165.11 · 50% 164.98
S3	156.31–160.59	-12.7% to -15.1%	wk high 01-09 160.59 · wk high 02-27 160.24 · 61.8% 159.55 · wk high 01-23 159.23 · 200-day SMA 158.95 · wk low 07-24 157.23 · wk high ’25-12-19 156.31
ATH	187.99	+2.2%	all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used)

Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)

Stops & phase transitions

Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 171.87 (-6.6%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 164.98–168.53.
Trend Breakdown (reference, S2 floor): Friday close < 164.98 (-10.3%): information only, no verdict impact. Next support S3 156.31–160.59.
Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 169.07 (-8.1%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 169.07 · Est. Down < 139.81 (-24.0%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 178.42 · Est. Down < 132.55.

Sluymer context

CB Oct 13: Healthcare relative trend: “Challenging the 2022-2026 downtrend.”
CB Oct 13: Healthcare: “ABT, ISRG and BSX reviewed.”
CB Oct 13 sector table: XLV relative to the S&P is Early Up / Early Up (tactical / trading).
CB Oct 13: semis pulling back but “premature to conclude… the beginning of a bear market”; the Weekly Quadrant Balance “is moving toward oversold levels with early signs of bottoming”.
CB Oct 13: rising rates remain “the second obvious risk”; key S&P support 7508, resistance 7817 then 8053; US 10-yr “beginning to stall at its next extension level at 5.35%”.

Notes & caveats

Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and S&P 500 (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Holder levels (simple S/R: 40-wk SMA, 200-day SMA, 50%/61.8% retracements, 2-yr weekly swings and prior breakouts, ATH; ≥2 tools within 3% per band): Breakout = top of R1; Profit-Taking = next band above it, else the ATH, else none (blue sky); Trade Breakdown = the 40-wk SMA (Friday close below it = flag, verdict REVIEW); Trend Breakdown (S2 floor) and Profit-Taking are reference only and do not change the verdict. Trend Score (8–16 wk) = relative strength (30 pts) + structure (30 pts) rescaled to 100: Up ≥ 60, Neutral 45–59, Down < 45, confirmed after two consecutive Friday closes; descriptive, not a forecast. ETF (health care sector SPDR): it is the sector benchmark itself, so both slots are the S&P 500. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).

Breakout Level confirms hold	Friday close above $187.99	+2.2%	top of R1 (ATH 10-30)
Profit-Taking Zone (ref.) reference · rebalance if overweight	—	blue sky	none: blue sky above the Breakout
Trade Breakdown review thesis, no trade	Friday close below $158.96	-13.6%	40-wk SMA 158.96
Trend Breakdown (ref.) reference · no verdict impact	Friday close below $164.98	-10.3%	trend stop; next support $156.31–160.59

XLV ETF

Trend health

Key levels for holders