TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
WMT
Walmart Inc. · held position
Last Price $124.86
Unrealized G/L +0.7% (+$263)
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
Portfolio weight 1.03% (US)
HOLDKeep the full position: trend Up, Friday close above the 40-wk SMA ($118.53). Profit-Taking is reference only.
Trend health
Trend Score (8–16 wk)
● Up
Score 83/100. Leads S&P and sector; above rising 40-wk.
Opportunity cost (relative strength, weekly)
Leading the S&P 500 for 3 weeks (+14.3% relative)
Leading staples (XLP) for 4 weeks (+6.7% relative)
Key levels for holders
Breakout Level
confirms hold | Friday close above $128.75 | +3.1% | top of R1 (wk low 05-01, wk high 03-20) |
Profit-Taking Zone (ref.)
reference · rebalance if overweight | $129.69–133.37 | +3.9% to +6.8% | wk high 04-10, wk high 05-01 |
Trade Breakdown
review thesis, no trade | Friday close below $118.53 | -5.1% | 40-wk SMA 118.53 |
Trend Breakdown (ref.)
reference · no verdict impact | Friday close below $115.48 | -7.5% | trend stop; next support $109.35–112.73 |
If broken, then…
Trade Breakdown (40-wk SMA; Friday close < $118.53): review the thesis (earnings, estimates, guidance). No trade yet.
Trend Breakdown (reference only) (Friday close < $115.48): no verdict impact; reassess if the story has also weakened. Next support $109.35–112.73.
Sluymer's view: No direct call. Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Watch this week: Fri Nov 6: a Friday close ≥ $109.84 (-12.0%) keeps RS vs the S&P at Est. Up or better; a Friday close below the 40-wk SMA $118.53 is the Trade Breakdown.
APPENDIX · WMT · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARDHeld-card Trade Breakdown level = 40-wk SMA 118.53.
For adding / new entries (not used for held-position decisions)
| Level | Price | From close | Note |
|---|
| Buy zone | $121.05–122.94 | -1.5% to -3.1% | wk high 06-19, wk low 03-06, wk low 04-10 |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $121.05 | -3.1% | trading downgrade one state; re-anchor to S2 115.48–118.58 |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $128.75 | +3.1% | top of R1 (wk low 05-01, wk high 03-20) |
| Trading (10–20 day) state | Early Up: Above 50-day; daily RS vs S&P Est. Up. |
Scores · Trend 83.3
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 20.0 + 10.0 = 30.0 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 20 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 83.3 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Up |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Up |
| Trend (confirmed) | Up |
✔ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 6/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 5/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✖ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 0/5
Weekly raw states: 09-18 Down → 09-25 Down → 10-02 Down → 10-09 Down → 10-23 Up → 10-30 Up. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 70.9
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 20.0 + 10.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 25 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — positive but rolling over from >80th pctile | 6.2 / 25 |
| Band position | 9.7 / 20 |
| Raw | 70.9 (Early Up) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 70.9 Early Up |
| ✔ Close above 50-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 3/3 · ✔ Close above 100-day SMA 4/4 · ✔ Close above 200-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (WMT close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 1 Established Up (+) → | +12.33% | +5.04% | Est. Up ≥ 109.84 (-12.0%) · Est. Down < 106.58 |
| Trend · XLP | 1 Established Up (+) → | +5.76% | +1.86% | Est. Up ≥ 117.48 (-5.9%) · Early Up ≥ 116.89 · Est. Down < 116.27 |
| Trading · S&P | 1 Established Up (+) → | +5.25% | +5.04% | Est. Up ≥ 119.29 (-4.5%) · Est. Down < 87.40 |
| Trading · XLP | 1 Established Up (+) → | +2.73% | +2.09% | Est. Up ≥ 121.98 (-2.3%) · Est. Down < 107.95 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 124.86)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 134.69–135.16 | +7.9% to +8.2% | wk high 02-20 134.69 · ATH 05-19 135.16 |
| R2 | 129.69–133.37 | +3.9% to +6.8% | wk high 04-10 129.69 · wk high 05-01 133.37 |
| R1 | 125.91–128.75 | +0.8% to +3.1% | wk low 05-01 125.91 · wk high 03-20 127.19 · wk high 03-06 128.75 |
| S1 | 121.05–122.94 | -1.5% to -3.1% | wk high 06-19 122.94 · wk low 03-06 121.62 · wk low 04-10 121.33 · wk low 02-20 121.05 |
| S2 | 115.48–118.58 | -5.0% to -7.5% | 200-day SMA 118.58 · 40-wk SMA 118.53 · wk high 07-17 118.09 · wk low 03-20 118.02 · wk high ’25-12-19 117.45 · 50% 117.02 · wk high 08-21 116.87 · wk high 07-31 116.03 · wk low 01-30 115.48 |
| S3 | 109.35–112.73 | -9.7% to -12.4% | wk low 06-05 112.73 · wk high 09-25 111.23 · wk low ’25-12-26 110.55 · wk low 01-09 109.81 · wk high ’25-10-17 109.58 · wk high 09-04 109.35 |
| ATH | 135.16 | +8.2% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 121.05 (-3.1%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 115.48–118.58.
- Trend Breakdown (reference, S2 floor): Friday close < 115.48 (-7.5%): information only, no verdict impact. Next support S3 109.35–112.73.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 109.84 (-12.0%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 109.84 · Est. Down < 106.58 (-14.6%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 119.29 · Est. Down < 87.40.
Sluymer context
- CB Oct 13: semis pulling back but “premature to conclude… the beginning of a bear market”; the Weekly Quadrant Balance “is moving toward oversold levels with early signs of bottoming”.
- CB Oct 13: rising rates remain “the second obvious risk”; key S&P support 7508, resistance 7817 then 8053; US 10-yr “beginning to stall at its next extension level at 5.35%”.
Notes & caveats
Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLP (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Holder levels (simple S/R: 40-wk SMA, 200-day SMA, 50%/61.8% retracements, 2-yr weekly swings and prior breakouts, ATH; ≥2 tools within 3% per band): Breakout = top of R1; Profit-Taking = next band above it, else the ATH, else none (blue sky); Trade Breakdown = the 40-wk SMA (Friday close below it = flag, verdict REVIEW); Trend Breakdown (S2 floor) and Profit-Taking are reference only and do not change the verdict. Trend Score (8–16 wk) = relative strength (30 pts) + structure (30 pts) rescaled to 100: Up ≥ 60, Neutral 45–59, Down < 45, confirmed after two consecutive Friday closes; descriptive, not a forecast. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).