VYLR

APPENDIX · VYLR · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD

Held-card Trade Breakdown level = 40-wk SMA n/a.

For adding / new entries (not used for held-position decisions)

Level	Price	From close	Note
Buy zone	$69.73–71.19	-1.1% to -3.1%	50% retr., wk low 10-23, 61.8% retr.
Trading stop · daily close	below $69.73	-3.1%	trading downgrade one state; re-anchor: no support nearby
Breakout Buy Level	close above $77.39	+7.6%	top of R1 (ATH 10-13)
Trading (10–20 day) state	Early Down: Below 50-day; daily RS vs S&P Neutral.

Scores · Trend n/a

Short history (5 wks): RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10)	n/a + n/a
Structure (computable checks)	5 / 5
Score = points earned × 100 / 5 computable points	N/A (too little history)
Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45)	N/A
Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays, on the history that exists)	confirmed N/A
Trend (confirmed)	N/A
– Fri close above 40-wk SMA n/a (short history) · – 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) n/a (short history) · ✔ No lower high vs cycle high 5/5 · – Fri close above 20-wk SMA n/a (short history) · – Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA n/a (short history) · – 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) n/a (short history) Weekly raw states: 10-30 N/A.

Scores · Trading 32.5

RS (S&P 20 + sector 10)	12.0 + 0.0 / 30
Structure	0 / 25
Coppock (daily) — negative & falling	2.5 / 25
Band position	18.0 / 20
Raw	32.5 (Early Down)
Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2)	+0
Final	32.5 Early Down
✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✖ Close above 200-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 0/3 · ✖ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 0/5

Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)

Horizon · benchmark	State	RS vs SMA	RS chg	Phase-transition price (VYLR close needed)
Trend · S&P	3 Neutral (+) →	n/a	+1.36%
Trend · XLB	3 Neutral (−) →	n/a	-3.16%
Trading · S&P	3 Neutral (+) ↑	-0.05%	+0.98%	Est. Up ≥ 75.30 (+4.7%) · Early Up ≥ 72.12 · Est. Down < 71.73
Trading · XLB	5 Established Down (−) →	-3.30%	-1.12%	Est. Up ≥ 96.80 (+34.5%) · Early Up ≥ 74.30 · Est. Down < 73.90

Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 71.95)

Band	Range	Distance	Tools in the cluster
R1	77.39–77.39	+7.6% to +7.6%	ATH 10-13 77.39
S1	69.73–71.19	-1.1% to -3.1%	50% 71.19 · wk low 10-23 70.75 · 61.8% 69.73
ATH	77.39	+7.6%	all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used)

Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)

Stops & phase transitions

Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 69.73 (-3.1%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor: no support nearby.
Trend Breakdown (reference, S2 floor): Friday close < 69.73 (-3.1%): information only, no verdict impact. No lower band computed.
Trend vs S&P: (next Friday, benchmark flat).
Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 75.30 · Early Up ≥ 72.12 · Est. Down < 71.73.

Sluymer context

CB Oct 13: semis pulling back but “premature to conclude… the beginning of a bear market”; the Weekly Quadrant Balance “is moving toward oversold levels with early signs of bottoming”.
CB Oct 13: rising rates remain “the second obvious risk”; key S&P support 7508, resistance 7817 then 8053; US 10-yr “beginning to stall at its next extension level at 5.35%”.

Notes & caveats

Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLB (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Holder levels (simple S/R: 40-wk SMA, 200-day SMA, 50%/61.8% retracements, 2-yr weekly swings and prior breakouts, ATH; ≥2 tools within 3% per band): Breakout = top of R1; Profit-Taking = next band above it, else the ATH, else none (blue sky); Trade Breakdown = the 40-wk SMA (Friday close below it = flag, verdict REVIEW); Trend Breakdown (S2 floor) and Profit-Taking are reference only and do not change the verdict. Trend Score (8–16 wk) = relative strength (30 pts) + structure (30 pts) rescaled to 100: Up ≥ 60, Neutral 45–59, Down < 45, confirmed after two consecutive Friday closes; descriptive, not a forecast. Short history (5 wks): under the 104 weekly bars of a full card. Checks that need more history (Fri close above 40-wk SMA, 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks), Fri close above 20-wk SMA, Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA, 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep), RS vs S&P, RS vs sector) are left out of both the points earned and the points possible, and the score is rescaled to 0–100 (5 points computable). Trend shows N/A under 10 weekly bars or when fewer than 30 points can be computed. The 2-Friday confirmation uses the history that exists. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).

Breakout Level confirms hold	Friday close above $77.39	+7.6%	top of R1 (ATH 10-13)
Profit-Taking Zone (ref.) reference · rebalance if overweight	—	blue sky	none: blue sky above the Breakout
Trade Breakdown review thesis, no trade	Friday close below n/a	n/a	40-wk SMA n/a
Trend Breakdown (ref.) reference · no verdict impact	No support nearby	—	only one support band below the price

Trend health

Key levels for holders