TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
VOO ETF
Vanguard S&P 500 ETF · held position
Last Price $693.54
Unrealized G/L -0.5% (−$1,854)
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
Portfolio weight 9.51% (US)
HOLDKeep the full position: trend Up, Friday close above the 40-wk SMA ($670.80). Profit-Taking is reference only.
Trend health
Trend Score (8–16 wk)
● Up
Score 52/100. Lags RSP, in line with sector; above rising 40-wk. Raw Neutral this Friday, needs a 2nd to confirm.
Opportunity cost (relative strength, weekly)
Lagging the S&P 500 equal-weight ETF (RSP) for 2 weeks (-2.9% relative)
Leading S&P 500 for 18 weeks (+0.6% relative)
Key levels for holders
Breakout Level
confirms hold | Friday close above $714.30 | +3.0% | top of R1 (wk high 07-17, wk high 06-19) |
Profit-Taking Zone (ref.)
reference · rebalance if overweight | $716.39–718.47 | +3.3% to +3.6% | wk high 08-14, ATH 10-06 |
Trade Breakdown
review thesis, no trade | Friday close below $670.80 | -3.3% | 40-wk SMA 670.80 |
Trend Breakdown (ref.)
reference · no verdict impact | Friday close below $648.46 | -6.5% | trend stop; next support $625.21–641.81 |
If broken, then…
Trade Breakdown (40-wk SMA; Friday close < $670.80): review the thesis (earnings, estimates, guidance). No trade yet.
Trend Breakdown (reference only) (Friday close < $648.46): no verdict impact; reassess if the story has also weakened. Next support $625.21–641.81.
Sluymer's view: Agrees. S&P 500 (VOO tracks it): “challenging its Q3 highs at 7817”; next 8053 then 8389; key support 7508 (CB Oct 13).
Watch this week: Fri Nov 6: a Friday close ≥ $708.04 (+2.1%) lifts RS vs the RSP off Est. Down; a Friday close below the 40-wk SMA $670.80 is the Trade Breakdown.
APPENDIX · VOO · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARDHeld-card Trade Breakdown level = 40-wk SMA 670.80.
For adding / new entries (not used for held-position decisions)
| Level | Price | From close | Note |
|---|
| Buy zone | $670.16–689.10 | -0.6% to -3.4% | wk high 05-15, wk low 09-18, wk low 05-22 |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $670.16 | -3.4% | trading downgrade one state; re-anchor to S2 648.46–668.10 |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $714.30 | +3.0% | top of R1 (wk high 07-17, wk high 06-19) |
| Trading (10–20 day) state | Established Down: Below 50-day; daily RS vs RSP Est. Down. |
Scores · Trend 51.7
| RS vs RSP (20) + sector (10) | 0.0 + 6.0 = 6.0 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 25 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 51.7 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Neutral |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Up; Neutral pending 1/2 |
| Trend (confirmed) | Up |
✔ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 6/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✔ No lower high vs cycle high 5/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Up → 10-02 Up → 10-09 Up → 10-16 Up → 10-23 Up → 10-30 Neutral. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 23.3
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 0.0 + 6.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 8 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — negative & falling | 2.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 6.8 / 20 |
| Raw | 23.3 (Established Down) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 23.3 Established Down |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✔ Close above 200-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✖ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 0/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (VOO close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · RSP | 5 Established Down (−) ↓ | -2.04% | -2.88% | Est. Up ≥ 711.83 (+2.6%) · Est. Down < 708.04 |
| Trend · S&P 500 | 3 Neutral (+) → | -0.01% | +0.07% | Est. Up ≥ 696.75 (+0.5%) · Est. Down < 693.05 |
| Trading · RSP | 5 Established Down (−) → | -2.52% | -1.60% | Est. Up ≥ 819.43 (+18.2%) · Early Up ≥ 711.93 · Est. Down < 708.13 |
| Trading · S&P 500 | 3 Neutral (+) → | -0.00% | +0.01% | Est. Up ≥ 695.43 (+0.3%) · Est. Down < 691.71 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 693.54)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R2 | 716.39–718.47 | +3.3% to +3.6% | wk high 08-14 716.39 · ATH 10-06 718.47 |
| R1 | 694.50–714.30 | +0.1% to +3.0% | wk high 07-17 694.50 · wk high 06-19 695.75 · wk low 10-02 697.47 · wk high 06-05 699.15 · wk low 08-21 700.47 · wk high 09-25 714.30 |
| S1 | 670.16–689.10 | -0.6% to -3.4% | wk high 05-15 689.10 · wk low 09-18 689.04 · wk low 05-22 672.55 · 40-wk SMA 670.80 · 200-day SMA 670.76 · wk low 07-31 670.16 |
| S2 | 648.46–668.10 | -3.7% to -6.5% | wk low 06-26 668.10 · wk low 06-12 664.32 · 50% 648.46 |
| S3 | 625.21–641.81 | -7.5% to -9.9% | wk high 01-30 641.81 · wk high 02-13 641.15 · wk high 01-16 640.16 · wk high 02-27 638.00 · wk high ’25-12-26 636.08 · wk high ’25-10-31 634.13 · wk high ’25-12-12 633.87 · 61.8% 631.94 · wk low 01-02 625.21 |
| ATH | 718.47 | +3.6% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 670.16 (-3.4%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 648.46–668.10.
- Trend Breakdown (reference, S2 floor): Friday close < 648.46 (-6.5%): information only, no verdict impact. Next support S3 625.21–641.81.
- Trend vs RSP: Est. Up ≥ 711.83 (+2.6%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 711.83 · Est. Down < 708.04 (+2.1%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs RSP: Est. Up ≥ 819.43 · Early Up ≥ 711.93 · Est. Down < 708.13.
Sluymer context
- CB Oct 13 p7: “The S&P is challenging its Q3 highs at 7817… Next upside levels are at 8053 followed by 8389… Key downside support is at S&P 7508.”
- CB Oct 13 p8: “S&P Equal Weight RSP ETF has pulled back toward support near the 50-62% retracement between 201-205 coinciding with its red 200-day ma with an oversold rally beginning to take hold.”
- CB Oct 13: semis pulling back but “premature to conclude… the beginning of a bear market”; the Weekly Quadrant Balance “is moving toward oversold levels with early signs of bottoming”.
- CB Oct 13: rising rates remain “the second obvious risk”; key S&P support 7508, resistance 7817 then 8053; US 10-yr “beginning to stall at its next extension level at 5.35%”.
- CB Oct 13: semis pulling back but “premature to conclude… the beginning of a bear market”; the Weekly Quadrant Balance “is moving toward oversold levels with early signs of bottoming”.
- CB Oct 13: rising rates remain “the second obvious risk”; key S&P support 7508, resistance 7817 then 8053; US 10-yr “beginning to stall at its next extension level at 5.35%”.
Notes & caveats
Benchmarks: S&P 500 EW (RSP) (20 pts) and S&P 500 (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Holder levels (simple S/R: 40-wk SMA, 200-day SMA, 50%/61.8% retracements, 2-yr weekly swings and prior breakouts, ATH; ≥2 tools within 3% per band): Breakout = top of R1; Profit-Taking = next band above it, else the ATH, else none (blue sky); Trade Breakdown = the 40-wk SMA (Friday close below it = flag, verdict REVIEW); Trend Breakdown (S2 floor) and Profit-Taking are reference only and do not change the verdict. Trend Score (8–16 wk) = relative strength (30 pts) + structure (30 pts) rescaled to 100: Up ≥ 60, Neutral 45–59, Down < 45, confirmed after two consecutive Friday closes; descriptive, not a forecast. ETF (S&P 500 tracker): relative strength is measured vs the equal-weight S&P 500 (RSP); the cap-weight S&P sits in the sector slot (near-flat by design). Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).