TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
TSLA
Tesla Inc. · held position
Last Price $398.50
Unrealized G/L -16.5% (−$6,233)
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
Portfolio weight 0.86% (US)
HOLDKeep the full position: trend Neutral, Friday close above the 40-wk SMA ($382.07). Profit-Taking is reference only.
Trend health
Trend Score (8–16 wk)
● Neutral
Score 65/100. Leads S&P and sector; above falling 40-wk. Raw Up this Friday, needs a 2nd to confirm.
Opportunity cost (relative strength, weekly)
Leading the S&P 500 for 2 weeks (+13.9% relative)
Leading cons. discretionary (XLY) for 8 weeks (+12.5% relative)
Key levels for holders
Breakout Level
confirms hold | Friday close above $420.34 | +5.5% | top of R1 (wk high 04-17, wk low ’25-10-10) |
Profit-Taking Zone (ref.)
reference · rebalance if overweight | $424.37–436.35 | +6.5% to +9.5% | wk low 01-09, wk high 07-03, wk high 02-13 |
Trade Breakdown
review thesis, no trade | Friday close below $382.07 | -4.1% | 40-wk SMA 382.07 |
Trend Breakdown (ref.)
reference · no verdict impact | Friday close below $373.04 | -6.4% | trend stop; next support $359.40–368.60 |
If broken, then…
Trade Breakdown (40-wk SMA; Friday close < $382.07): review the thesis (earnings, estimates, guidance). No trade yet.
Trend Breakdown (reference only) (Friday close < $373.04): no verdict impact; reassess if the story has also weakened. Next support $359.40–368.60.
Sluymer's view: No direct call. Not named in the 15 reports. Sector: XLY is Est. Down (+) / Early Up; “Relative trend remains weak” (CB Oct 13).
Watch this week: Fri Nov 6: a Friday close ≥ $353.03 (-11.4%) keeps RS vs the S&P at Early Up or better; a Friday close below the 40-wk SMA $382.07 is the Trade Breakdown.
APPENDIX · TSLA · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARDHeld-card Trade Breakdown level = 40-wk SMA 382.07.
For adding / new entries (not used for held-position decisions)
| Level | Price | From close | Note |
|---|
| Buy zone | $382.07–393.63 | -1.2% to -4.1% | wk low 05-22, wk high 10-09, wk low 02-06 |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $382.07 | -4.1% | trading downgrade one state; re-anchor to S2 373.04–380.15 |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $420.34 | +5.5% | top of R1 (wk high 04-17, wk low ’25-10-10) |
| Trading (10–20 day) state | Established Up: Above 50-day; daily RS vs S&P Est. Up. |
Scores · Trend 65.2
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 15.4 + 7.7 = 23.1 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 16 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 65.2 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Up |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Neutral; Up pending 1/2 |
| Trend (confirmed) | Neutral |
✔ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 6/6 · ✖ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 0/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 5/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✖ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 0/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Down → 10-02 Neutral → 10-09 Neutral → 10-16 Down → 10-23 Neutral → 10-30 Up. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 91.0
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 20.0 + 9.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 22 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — positive & rising | 25.0 / 25 |
| Band position | 15.0 / 20 |
| Raw | 91.0 (Established Up) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 91.0 Established Up |
| ✔ Close above 50-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 3/3 · ✔ Close above 100-day SMA 4/4 · ✔ Close above 200-day SMA 5/5 · ✖ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 0/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (TSLA close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 2 Early Up (+) → | +12.85% | +13.89% | Est. Up ≥ 395.30 (-0.8%) · Early Up ≥ 353.03 · Est. Down < 351.15 |
| Trend · XLY | 2 Early Up (+) → | +10.53% | +9.86% | Est. Up ≥ 382.13 (-4.1%) · Early Up ≥ 361.42 · Est. Down < 359.50 |
| Trading · S&P | 1 Established Up (+) → | +5.07% | +0.79% | Est. Up ≥ 381.69 (-4.2%) · Est. Down < 286.59 |
| Trading · XLY | 1 Established Up (−) → | +1.49% | -2.14% | Est. Up ≥ 394.16 (-1.1%) · Est. Down < 373.77 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 398.50)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 439.74–445.60 | +10.3% to +11.8% | wk high ’25-01-17 439.74 · wk high 05-29 445.60 |
| R2 | 424.37–436.35 | +6.5% to +9.5% | wk low 01-09 424.37 · wk high 07-03 432.86 · wk high 02-13 436.35 |
| R1 | 409.28–420.34 | +2.7% to +5.5% | wk high 04-17 409.28 · wk low ’25-10-10 411.45 · wk low ’25-10-24 413.90 · wk high 03-13 416.38 · wk high 02-27 420.34 |
| S1 | 382.07–393.63 | -1.2% to -4.1% | wk low 05-22 393.63 · wk high 10-09 388.56 · wk low 02-06 387.53 · wk high 09-25 386.83 · 50% 386.02 · 200-day SMA 384.93 · wk high 09-04 384.04 · wk low ’25-11-14 382.78 · 40-wk SMA 382.07 |
| S2 | 373.04–380.15 | -4.6% to -6.4% | wk low 06-12 380.15 · wk low ’25-01-03 373.04 |
| S3 | 359.40–368.60 | -7.5% to -9.8% | wk low 06-26 368.60 · wk high ’25-05-30 367.71 · wk high ’25-02-21 367.34 · wk high 08-21 366.50 · wk low 05-01 364.02 · 61.8% 359.40 |
| ATH | 498.83 | +25.2% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 382.07 (-4.1%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 373.04–380.15.
- Trend Breakdown (reference, S2 floor): Friday close < 373.04 (-6.4%): information only, no verdict impact. Next support S3 359.40–368.60.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 395.30 (-0.8%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 353.03 · Est. Down < 351.15 (-11.9%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 381.69 · Est. Down < 286.59.
Sluymer context
- CB Oct 13 sector table: XLY relative to the S&P is Est. Down (+) / Early Up (tactical / trading).
- CB Oct 13: semis pulling back but “premature to conclude… the beginning of a bear market”; the Weekly Quadrant Balance “is moving toward oversold levels with early signs of bottoming”.
- CB Oct 13: rising rates remain “the second obvious risk”; key S&P support 7508, resistance 7817 then 8053; US 10-yr “beginning to stall at its next extension level at 5.35%”.
Notes & caveats
Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLY (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Holder levels (simple S/R: 40-wk SMA, 200-day SMA, 50%/61.8% retracements, 2-yr weekly swings and prior breakouts, ATH; ≥2 tools within 3% per band): Breakout = top of R1; Profit-Taking = next band above it, else the ATH, else none (blue sky); Trade Breakdown = the 40-wk SMA (Friday close below it = flag, verdict REVIEW); Trend Breakdown (S2 floor) and Profit-Taking are reference only and do not change the verdict. Trend Score (8–16 wk) = relative strength (30 pts) + structure (30 pts) rescaled to 100: Up ≥ 60, Neutral 45–59, Down < 45, confirmed after two consecutive Friday closes; descriptive, not a forecast. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).