TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
SLV ETF
iShares Silver Trust · held position
Last Price $44.84
Unrealized G/L +39.9% (+$17,872)
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
Portfolio weight 1.71% (US)
REVIEWHigh risk · consider trim 50%High risk: Trend Down (score 10); Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA ($62.61). Consider trimming 50% if the story has weakened.
Trend health
Trend Score (8–16 wk)
● Down
Score 10/100. Lags S&P; below falling 40-wk.
Opportunity cost (relative strength, weekly)
Lagging the S&P 500 for 5 weeks (-21.6% relative)
Lagging S&P 500 for 5 weeks (-21.6% relative)
Key levels for holders
Breakout Level
confirms hold | Friday close above $49.61 | +10.6% | top of R1 (wk high ’25-11-14, wk high ’25-10-17) |
Profit-Taking Zone (ref.)
reference · rebalance if overweight | $50.31–51.12 | +12.2% to +14.0% | wk low 06-26, wk low 08-07 |
Trade Breakdown
review thesis, no trade | TRIGGERED · reclaim $62.61 | +39.6% | 40-wk SMA 62.61 |
Trend Breakdown (ref.)
reference · no verdict impact | Friday close below $31.41 | -30.0% | trend stop; next support $30.07–30.62 |
If broken, then…
Trade Breakdown (40-wk SMA; triggered at $62.61): review the thesis (earnings, estimates, guidance). No trade yet.
Trend Breakdown (reference only) (Friday close < $31.41): no verdict impact; reassess if the story has also weakened. Next support $30.07–30.62.
Sluymer's view: No direct call. No direct call: Sluymer does not cover silver in the 15 reports (gold context only).
Watch this week: Fri Nov 6: a Friday close ≥ $54.81 (+22.2%) lifts RS vs the S&P off Est. Down; a Friday close back above the 40-wk SMA $62.61 clears the Trade Breakdown.
APPENDIX · SLV · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARDHeld-card Trade Breakdown level = 40-wk SMA 62.61 (already below on the Friday close: Trade Breakdown triggered).
For adding / new entries (not used for held-position decisions)
| Level | Price | From close | Note |
|---|
| Buy zone | $33.10–33.87 | -24.5% to -26.2% | wk high ’25-06-20, wk low ’25-08-22, wk low ’25-08-01 |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $33.10 | -26.2% | trading downgrade one state; re-anchor to S2 31.41–32.06 |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $49.61 | +10.6% | top of R1 (wk high ’25-11-14, wk high ’25-10-17) |
| Trading (10–20 day) state | Established Down: Below 50-day; daily RS vs S&P Est. Down. |
Scores · Trend 10.0
| RS vs S&P (20); no sector benchmark for this ETF | 0.0 / 20 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 5 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/50 | 10.0 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Down |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Down |
| Trend (confirmed) | Down |
✖ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 0/6 · ✖ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 0/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✖ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 0/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Down → 10-02 Down → 10-09 Down → 10-16 Down → 10-23 Down → 10-30 Down. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 10.7
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 0.0 + 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 0 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — negative & falling | 2.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 8.2 / 20 |
| Raw | 10.7 (Established Down) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 10.7 Established Down |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✖ Close above 200-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 0/3 · ✖ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 0/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (SLV close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 5 Established Down (−) → | -18.53% | -12.51% | Early Up ≥ 55.11 · Est. Down < 54.81 |
| Trend · S&P 500 | 5 Established Down (−) → | -18.53% | -12.51% | Early Up ≥ 55.11 · Est. Down < 54.81 |
| Trading · S&P | 5 Established Down (−) → | -7.41% | -3.26% | Early Up ≥ 48.50 · Est. Down < 48.25 |
| Trading · S&P 500 | 5 Established Down (−) → | -7.41% | -3.26% | Early Up ≥ 48.50 · Est. Down < 48.25 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 44.84)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 55.08–56.37 | +22.8% to +25.7% | wk high 07-24 55.08 · wk high 10-09 55.86 · wk low 09-18 56.28 · wk high 07-10 56.37 |
| R2 | 50.31–51.12 | +12.2% to +14.0% | wk low 06-26 50.31 · wk low 08-07 51.12 |
| R1 | 48.70–49.61 | +8.6% to +10.6% | wk high ’25-11-14 48.70 · wk high ’25-10-17 49.25 · wk low 07-17 49.61 |
| S1 | 33.10–33.87 | -24.5% to -26.2% | wk high ’25-06-20 33.87 · wk low ’25-08-22 33.85 · wk low ’25-08-01 33.10 |
| S2 | 31.41–32.06 | -28.5% to -30.0% | wk low ’25-06-27 32.06 · wk high 2024-10-25 31.80 · wk high ’25-03-28 31.41 |
| S3 | 30.07–30.62 | -31.7% to -32.9% | wk high ’25-04-25 30.62 · wk high ’25-05-23 30.53 · wk high ’25-02-14 30.28 · wk high 2024-10-04 30.07 |
| ATH | 109.83 | +144.9% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 33.10 (-26.2%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 31.41–32.06.
- Trend Breakdown (reference, S2 floor): Friday close < 31.41 (-30.0%): information only, no verdict impact. Next support S3 30.07–30.62.
- Trend vs S&P: above its 16-wk avg ≥ 55.11 · Est. Down < 54.81 (+22.2%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Early Up ≥ 48.50 · Est. Down < 48.25.
Sluymer context
- CB Oct 13 p28: “Gold broke below 4273 support challenging its next support band between 4053-4176… a trading low is likely to develop in the coming 1-2 weeks with a move above first resistance at 4273 needed to signal a short-term trend reversal.”
- CB Oct 13: semis pulling back but “premature to conclude… the beginning of a bear market”; the Weekly Quadrant Balance “is moving toward oversold levels with early signs of bottoming”.
- CB Oct 13: rising rates remain “the second obvious risk”; key S&P support 7508, resistance 7817 then 8053; US 10-yr “beginning to stall at its next extension level at 5.35%”.
Notes & caveats
Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and S&P 500 (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Holder levels (simple S/R: 40-wk SMA, 200-day SMA, 50%/61.8% retracements, 2-yr weekly swings and prior breakouts, ATH; ≥2 tools within 3% per band): Breakout = top of R1; Profit-Taking = next band above it, else the ATH, else none (blue sky); Trade Breakdown = the 40-wk SMA (Friday close below it = flag, verdict REVIEW); Trend Breakdown (S2 floor) and Profit-Taking are reference only and do not change the verdict. Trend Score (8–16 wk) = relative strength (30 pts) + structure (30 pts) rescaled to 100: Up ≥ 60, Neutral 45–59, Down < 45, confirmed after two consecutive Friday closes; descriptive, not a forecast. ETF (silver bullion): breadth is set neutral (equity breadth does not apply); both benchmark slots are the S&P 500. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).