RTX

APPENDIX · RTX · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD

Held-card Trade Breakdown level = 40-wk SMA 195.38.

For adding / new entries (not used for held-position decisions)

Level	Price	From close	Note
Buy zone	$193.08–198.83	-2.4% to -5.3%	50% retr., 40-wk SMA, 200-day SMA
Trading stop · daily close	below $193.08	-5.3%	trading downgrade one state; re-anchor to S2 188.00–192.62
Breakout Buy Level	close above $206.73	+1.4%	top of R1 (wk high 07-10, wk high 04-10)
Trading (10–20 day) state	Established Up: Above 50-day; daily RS vs S&P Est. Up.

Scores · Trend 80.0

RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10)	12.0 + 10.0 = 22.0 / 30
Structure (6 checks)	26 / 30
Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60	80.0 / 100
Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45)	Up
Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays)	confirmed Neutral; Up pending 1/2
Trend (confirmed)	Neutral
✔ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 6/6 · ✖ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 0/4 · ✔ No lower high vs cycle high 5/5 · ✔ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 5/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5 Weekly raw states: 09-25 Down → 10-02 Down → 10-09 Down → 10-16 Neutral → 10-23 Neutral → 10-30 Up. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only).

Scores · Trading 81.4

RS (S&P 20 + sector 10)	20.0 + 10.0 / 30
Structure	22 / 25
Coppock (daily) — positive & rising	25.0 / 25
Band position	4.4 / 20
Raw	81.4 (Established Up)
Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2)	+0
Final	81.4 Established Up
✔ Close above 50-day SMA 5/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✔ Close above 100-day SMA 4/4 · ✔ Close above 200-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5

Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)

Horizon · benchmark	State	RS vs SMA	RS chg	Phase-transition price (RTX close needed)
Trend · S&P	3 Neutral (+) ↑	+0.01%	+4.11%	Est. Up ≥ 200.52 (-1.6%) · Est. Down < 192.94
Trend · XLI	1 Established Up (+) →	+3.55%	+3.25%	Est. Up ≥ 194.29 (-4.7%) · Est. Down < 161.05
Trading · S&P	1 Established Up (+) →	+6.01%	+4.26%	Est. Up ≥ 193.47 (-5.1%) · Est. Down < 142.67
Trading · XLI	1 Established Up (+) →	+2.45%	+1.51%	Est. Up ≥ 200.03 (-1.9%) · Est. Down < 157.67

Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 203.82)

Band	Range	Distance	Tools in the cluster
R1	203.94–206.73	+0.1% to +1.4%	wk high 07-10 203.94 · wk high 04-10 205.36 · wk high 02-06 206.48 · wk high 02-20 206.73
S1	193.08–198.83	-2.4% to -5.3%	50% 198.83 · 40-wk SMA 195.38 · 200-day SMA 195.33 · wk high 06-19 194.17 · wk low 01-30 193.50 · wk low 02-13 193.08
S2	188.00–192.62	-5.5% to -7.8%	wk low 02-27 192.62 · 61.8% 192.21 · wk low 07-24 190.02 · wk high ’25-12-26 188.00
S3	180.97–185.57	-9.0% to -11.2%	wk low 04-03 185.57 · wk high ’25-10-31 181.31 · wk low 06-26 180.97
ATH	226.88	+11.3%	all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used)

Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)

Stops & phase transitions

Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 193.08 (-5.3%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 188.00–192.62.
Trend Breakdown (reference, S2 floor): Friday close < 188.00 (-7.8%): information only, no verdict impact. Next support S3 180.97–185.57.
Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 200.52 (-1.6%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 200.52 · Est. Down < 192.94 (-5.3%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 193.47 · Est. Down < 142.67.

Sluymer context

CB Oct 13: “Industrials – GE has pulled back to support while GEV and ETN remain in consolidations above their support bands.”
CB Oct 13 sector table: XLI relative to the S&P is Est. Down / Est. Down (+) (tactical / trading).
CB Oct 13: semis pulling back but “premature to conclude… the beginning of a bear market”; the Weekly Quadrant Balance “is moving toward oversold levels with early signs of bottoming”.
CB Oct 13: rising rates remain “the second obvious risk”; key S&P support 7508, resistance 7817 then 8053; US 10-yr “beginning to stall at its next extension level at 5.35%”.

Notes & caveats

Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLI (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Holder levels (simple S/R: 40-wk SMA, 200-day SMA, 50%/61.8% retracements, 2-yr weekly swings and prior breakouts, ATH; ≥2 tools within 3% per band): Breakout = top of R1; Profit-Taking = next band above it, else the ATH, else none (blue sky); Trade Breakdown = the 40-wk SMA (Friday close below it = flag, verdict REVIEW); Trend Breakdown (S2 floor) and Profit-Taking are reference only and do not change the verdict. Trend Score (8–16 wk) = relative strength (30 pts) + structure (30 pts) rescaled to 100: Up ≥ 60, Neutral 45–59, Down < 45, confirmed after two consecutive Friday closes; descriptive, not a forecast. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).

Breakout Level confirms hold	Friday close above $206.73	+1.4%	top of R1 (wk high 07-10, wk high 04-10)
Profit-Taking Zone (ref.) reference · rebalance if overweight	$226.88	+11.3%	ATH (no 2-tool band above the Breakout)
Trade Breakdown review thesis, no trade	Friday close below $195.38	-4.1%	40-wk SMA 195.38
Trend Breakdown (ref.) reference · no verdict impact	Friday close below $188.00	-7.8%	trend stop; next support $180.97–185.57

Trend health

Key levels for holders