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TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD

RSPR ETF

Invesco S&P 500 EW Real Estate ETF · held position
Last Price $35.34
Unrealized G/L -5.3% (−$1,960)
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
Portfolio weight 0.94% (US)
REVIEWTrend is Down (score 37) and Friday close below the 40-wk SMA ($35.49). No trade yet: re-check the thesis.

Trend health

Trend Score (8–16 wk)
● Down
Score 37/100. Lags S&P, in line with sector; below rising 40-wk.
Opportunity cost (relative strength, weekly)
Lagging the S&P 500 for 13 weeks (-6.8% relative)
Leading REITs (IYR) for 2 weeks (+0.1% relative)

Key levels for holders

Breakout Level
confirms hold		Friday close above $36.38+2.9%top of R1 (200-day SMA, wk high ’25-05-02)
Profit-Taking Zone (ref.)
reference · rebalance if overweight		$36.50–37.23+3.3% to +5.3%wk high 05-08, wk low 2024-10-11, wk high 08-28
Trade Breakdown
review thesis, no trade		TRIGGERED · reclaim $35.49+0.4%40-wk SMA 35.49
Trend Breakdown (ref.)
reference · no verdict impact		Friday close below $33.09-6.4%trend stop; next support $32.41–33.03
If broken, then…
Trade Breakdown (40-wk SMA; triggered at $35.49): review the thesis (earnings, estimates, guidance). No trade yet.
Trend Breakdown (reference only) (Friday close < $33.09): no verdict impact; reassess if the story has also weakened. Next support $32.41–33.03.
Sluymer's view: No direct call. No direct call on RSPR. Proxy: REITs (IYR) are Est. Down / Early Up vs the S&P (CB Oct 13).
Watch this week: Fri Nov 6: a Friday close ≥ $34.95 (-1.1%) lifts RS vs the S&P off Est. Down; a Friday close back above the 40-wk SMA $35.49 clears the Trade Breakdown.
Rule-based demo inspired by Robert Sluymer's published framework; not RBC research or advice. Data: Yahoo Finance; levels computed from price data. Prepared Nov 3, 2026, 2:53 PM PT. Appendix + "For adding/new entries" on p.2.
APPENDIX · RSPR · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Held-card Trade Breakdown level = 40-wk SMA 35.49 (already below on the Friday close: Trade Breakdown triggered).

For adding / new entries (not used for held-position decisions)

LevelPriceFrom closeNote
Buy zone$34.26–35.28-0.2% to -3.1%wk high 01-16, wk high 10-23, wk low 05-15
Trading stop · daily closebelow $34.26-3.1%trading downgrade one state; re-anchor to S2 33.09–34.11
Breakout Buy Levelclose above $36.38+2.9%top of R1 (200-day SMA, wk high ’25-05-02)
Trading (10–20 day) stateEarly Up: Above 50-day; daily RS vs S&P Est. Up.

Scores · Trend 36.7

RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10)2.0 + 6.0 = 8.0 / 30
Structure (6 checks)14 / 30
Score = (RS + structure) × 100/6036.7 / 100
Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45)Down
Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays)confirmed Down
Trend (confirmed)Down
✖ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 0/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Down → 10-02 Down → 10-09 Down → 10-16 Down → 10-23 Down → 10-30 Down. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only).

Scores · Trading 72.9

RS (S&P 20 + sector 10)20.0 + 2.3 / 30
Structure13 / 25
Coppock (daily) — positive & rising25.0 / 25
Band position12.6 / 20
Raw72.9 (Early Up)
Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2)+0
Final72.9 Early Up
✔ Close above 50-day SMA 5/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✖ Close above 200-day SMA 0/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5

Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)

Horizon · benchmarkStateRS vs SMARS chgPhase-transition price (RSPR close needed)
Trend · S&P5 Established Down (+) →-0.68%+3.55%Est. Up ≥ 39.66 (+12.2%) · Early Up ≥ 35.13 · Est. Down < 34.95
Trend · IYR3 Neutral (+) ↓-0.02%+0.14%Est. Up ≥ 35.47 (+0.4%) · Early Up ≥ 35.08 · Est. Down < 34.89
Trading · S&P1 Established Up (+) →+3.82%+3.26%Est. Up ≥ 34.22 (-3.2%) · Est. Down < 27.46
Trading · IYR4 Early Down (−) ↓-0.27%-0.16%Est. Up ≥ 35.55 (+0.6%) · Est. Down < 34.91

Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 35.34)

BandRangeDistanceTools in the cluster
R337.68–38.64+6.6% to +9.3%wk high 06-19 37.68 · wk high 07-17 37.78 · wk high 2024-11-15 37.98 · wk high 07-31 38.01 · wk high 2024-10-25 38.29 · 61.8% 38.64
R236.50–37.23+3.3% to +5.3%wk high 05-08 36.50 · wk low 2024-10-11 36.57 · wk high 08-28 37.12 · wk high ’25-03-07 37.23
R135.41–36.38+0.2% to +2.9%200-day SMA 35.41 · wk high ’25-05-02 35.48 · 40-wk SMA 35.49 · wk low 06-05 35.58 · wk high ’25-06-27 35.67 · … +7 more · wk high ’25-09-12 36.00 · wk high 04-24 36.16 · wk low 07-10 36.29 · wk high ’25-07-25 36.34 · wk low 2024-11-01 36.38
S134.26–35.28-0.2% to -3.1%wk high 01-16 35.28 · wk high 10-23 35.15 · wk low 05-15 35.06 · wk low ’25-09-26 34.97 · wk low 05-01 34.94 · … +4 more · wk low 2024-12-20 34.57 · wk low ’25-06-27 34.47 · wk high ’25-11-28 34.40 · wk high ’25-11-14 34.39 · wk low ’25-08-01 34.26
S233.09–34.11-3.5% to -6.4%wk low ’25-08-15 34.11 · wk low ’25-10-10 34.00 · wk low ’25-05-23 33.87 · wk low 02-06 33.72 · wk low ’25-01-10 33.58 · wk low 01-09 33.35 · wk low ’25-04-25 33.18 · wk low ’25-11-21 33.11 · wk low ’25-11-07 33.09
S332.41–33.03-6.5% to -8.3%wk low ’25-12-12 33.03 · wk low 10-09 32.80 · wk low 03-27 32.41
ATH42.72+20.9%all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used)

Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)

Stops & phase transitions

  • Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 34.26 (-3.1%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 33.09–34.11.
  • Trend Breakdown (reference, S2 floor): Friday close < 33.09 (-6.4%): information only, no verdict impact. Next support S3 32.41–33.03.
  • Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 39.66 (+12.2%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 35.13 · Est. Down < 34.95 (-1.1%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
  • Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 34.22 · Est. Down < 27.46.

Sluymer context

  • CB Oct 13 sector table: IYR relative to the S&P is Est. Down / Early Up (tactical / trading).
  • CB Oct 13: semis pulling back but “premature to conclude… the beginning of a bear market”; the Weekly Quadrant Balance “is moving toward oversold levels with early signs of bottoming”.
  • CB Oct 13: rising rates remain “the second obvious risk”; key S&P support 7508, resistance 7817 then 8053; US 10-yr “beginning to stall at its next extension level at 5.35%”.

Notes & caveats

Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and IYR (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Holder levels (simple S/R: 40-wk SMA, 200-day SMA, 50%/61.8% retracements, 2-yr weekly swings and prior breakouts, ATH; ≥2 tools within 3% per band): Breakout = top of R1; Profit-Taking = next band above it, else the ATH, else none (blue sky); Trade Breakdown = the 40-wk SMA (Friday close below it = flag, verdict REVIEW); Trend Breakdown (S2 floor) and Profit-Taking are reference only and do not change the verdict. Trend Score (8–16 wk) = relative strength (30 pts) + structure (30 pts) rescaled to 100: Up ≥ 60, Neutral 45–59, Down < 45, confirmed after two consecutive Friday closes; descriptive, not a forecast. ETF (EW real estate): sector benchmark IYR. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).