TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
PWR
Quanta Services · held position
Last Price $657.00
Unrealized G/L +49.8% (+$33,184)
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
Portfolio weight 2.58% (US)
REVIEWTrend is Down (score 33) and Friday close below the 40-wk SMA ($631.90). No trade yet: re-check the thesis.
Trend health
Trend Score (8–16 wk)
● Down
Score 33/100. Lags S&P, leads sector; below rising 40-wk.
Opportunity cost (relative strength, weekly)
Lagging the S&P 500 for 3 weeks (-9.4% relative)
Leading industrials (XLI) for 1 week (+11.7% relative)
Key levels for holders
Breakout Level
confirms hold | Friday close above $708.06 | +7.8% | top of R1 (wk low 05-22, wk high 08-07) |
Profit-Taking Zone (ref.)
reference · rebalance if overweight | $722.21–742.73 | +9.9% to +13.0% | wk high 10-09, wk high 08-21, wk high 06-26 |
Trade Breakdown
review thesis, no trade | TRIGGERED · reclaim $631.90 | -3.8% | 40-wk SMA 631.90 |
Trend Breakdown (ref.)
reference · no verdict impact | Friday close below $628.05 | -4.4% | trend stop; next support $593.70–608.78 |
If broken, then…
Trade Breakdown (40-wk SMA; triggered at $631.90): review the thesis (earnings, estimates, guidance). No trade yet.
Trend Breakdown (reference only) (Friday close < $628.05): no verdict impact; reassess if the story has also weakened. Next support $593.70–608.78.
Sluymer's view: Partly agrees. Last named Aug 18: “PWR’s weekly momentum is becoming oversold and poised to turn up as PWR extends its rebound from its 40-week ma” (CB Aug 18).
Watch this week: Fri Nov 6: a Friday close ≥ $633.34 (-3.6%) lifts RS vs the S&P off Est. Down; a Friday close back above the 40-wk SMA $631.90 clears the Trade Breakdown.
APPENDIX · PWR · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARDHeld-card Trade Breakdown level = 40-wk SMA 631.90 (already below on the Friday close: Trade Breakdown triggered).
For adding / new entries (not used for held-position decisions)
| Level | Price | From close | Note |
|---|
| Buy zone | $642.11–653.87 | -0.5% to -2.3% | wk high 09-11, wk low 06-12 |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $642.11 | -2.3% | trading downgrade one state; re-anchor to S2 628.05–631.90 |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $708.06 | +7.8% | top of R1 (wk low 05-22, wk high 08-07) |
| Trading (10–20 day) state | Established Up: Above 50-day; daily RS vs S&P Early Up. |
Scores · Trend 32.8
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 0.0 + 5.7 = 5.7 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 14 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 32.8 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Down |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Down |
| Trend (confirmed) | Down |
✖ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 0/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Neutral → 10-02 Up → 10-09 Up → 10-16 Neutral → 10-23 Down → 10-30 Down. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 77.5
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 15.4 + 7.7 / 30 |
| Structure | 17 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — oversold & turning up (with structure) | 18.8 / 25 |
| Band position | 18.6 / 20 |
| Raw | 77.5 (Established Up) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 77.5 Established Up |
| ✔ Close above 50-day SMA 5/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✔ Close above 100-day SMA 4/4 · ✔ Close above 200-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✖ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 0/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (PWR close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 5 Established Down (−) → | -2.29% | -0.73% | Est. Up ≥ 677.09 (+3.1%) · Early Up ≥ 636.73 · Est. Down < 633.34 |
| Trend · XLI | 2 Early Up (−) ↑ | +1.01% | -1.55% | Est. Up ≥ 618.06 (-5.9%) · Est. Down < 571.73 |
| Trading · S&P | 2 Early Up (+) ↑ | +9.41% | +5.51% | Est. Up ≥ 708.84 (+7.9%) · Early Up ≥ 598.73 · Est. Down < 595.53 |
| Trading · XLI | 2 Early Up (+) ↑ | +5.75% | +2.72% | Est. Up ≥ 796.79 (+21.3%) · Early Up ≥ 618.93 · Est. Down < 615.63 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 657.00)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R2 | 722.21–742.73 | +9.9% to +13.0% | wk high 10-09 722.21 · wk high 08-21 724.80 · wk high 06-26 742.73 |
| R1 | 690.79–708.06 | +5.1% to +7.8% | wk low 05-22 690.79 · wk high 08-07 708.06 |
| S1 | 642.11–653.87 | -0.5% to -2.3% | wk high 09-11 653.87 · wk low 06-12 642.11 |
| S2 | 628.05–631.90 | -3.8% to -4.4% | 40-wk SMA 631.90 · 200-day SMA 628.05 |
| S3 | 593.70–608.78 | -7.3% to -9.6% | wk low 07-17 608.78 · wk low 09-18 607.45 · 50% 596.63 · wk low 09-04 593.70 |
| ATH | 788.75 | +20.1% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 642.11 (-2.3%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 628.05–631.90.
- Trend Breakdown (reference, S2 floor): Friday close < 628.05 (-4.4%): information only, no verdict impact. Next support S3 593.70–608.78.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 677.09 (+3.1%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 636.73 · Est. Down < 633.34 (-3.6%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 708.84 · Early Up ≥ 598.73 · Est. Down < 595.53.
Sluymer context
- CB Aug 18: Infrastructure/Construction stocks “such as PWR and FIX, continue to [build] positively from oversold levels reached in July.”
- CB Aug 18 p38: “PWR’s weekly momentum is becoming oversold and poised to turn up as PWR extends its rebound from its 40-week ma.”
- CB Oct 13 sector table: XLI relative to the S&P is Est. Down / Est. Down (+) (tactical / trading).
- CB Oct 13: semis pulling back but “premature to conclude… the beginning of a bear market”; the Weekly Quadrant Balance “is moving toward oversold levels with early signs of bottoming”.
- CB Oct 13: rising rates remain “the second obvious risk”; key S&P support 7508, resistance 7817 then 8053; US 10-yr “beginning to stall at its next extension level at 5.35%”.
Notes & caveats
Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLI (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Holder levels (simple S/R: 40-wk SMA, 200-day SMA, 50%/61.8% retracements, 2-yr weekly swings and prior breakouts, ATH; ≥2 tools within 3% per band): Breakout = top of R1; Profit-Taking = next band above it, else the ATH, else none (blue sky); Trade Breakdown = the 40-wk SMA (Friday close below it = flag, verdict REVIEW); Trend Breakdown (S2 floor) and Profit-Taking are reference only and do not change the verdict. Trend Score (8–16 wk) = relative strength (30 pts) + structure (30 pts) rescaled to 100: Up ≥ 60, Neutral 45–59, Down < 45, confirmed after two consecutive Friday closes; descriptive, not a forecast. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).