TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
NVDA
NVIDIA Corporation · held position
Last Price $206.69
Unrealized G/L +55.7% (+$52,203)
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
Portfolio weight 3.95% (US)
HOLDKeep the full position: trend Neutral, Friday close above the 40-wk SMA ($204.15). Profit-Taking is reference only.
Trend health
Trend Score (8–16 wk)
● Neutral
Score 53/100. Lags S&P and sector; above rising 40-wk.
Opportunity cost (relative strength, weekly)
Lagging the S&P 500 for 3 weeks (-8.0% relative)
Lagging tech (XLK) for 2 weeks (-2.3% relative)
Leading semis (SOXX) for 14 weeks (+10.6% relative)
Key levels for holders
Breakout Level
confirms hold | Friday close above $212.19 | +2.7% | top of R1 (wk low 08-28, wk low 09-18) |
Profit-Taking Zone (ref.)
reference · rebalance if overweight | $213.99–214.39 | +3.5% to +3.7% | wk high 06-26, wk high 07-24 |
Trade Breakdown
review thesis, no trade | Friday close below $204.15 | -1.2% | 40-wk SMA 204.15 |
Trend Breakdown (ref.)
reference · no verdict impact | Friday close below $193.63 | -6.3% | trend stop; next support $184.47–190.01 |
If broken, then…
Trade Breakdown (40-wk SMA; Friday close < $204.15): review the thesis (earnings, estimates, guidance). No trade yet.
Trend Breakdown (reference only) (Friday close < $193.63): no verdict impact; reassess if the story has also weakened. Next support $184.47–190.01.
Sluymer's view: Partly agrees. “NVDA is pulling back from its 162% extension near 242 with support between 210-217” (CB Oct 13); he expects semiconductor pullbacks to be short lived.
Watch this week: Fri Nov 6: a Friday close ≥ $212.59 (+2.9%) keeps RS vs the S&P at Early Down or better; a Friday close below the 40-wk SMA $204.15 is the Trade Breakdown.
APPENDIX · NVDA · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARDHeld-card Trade Breakdown level = 40-wk SMA 204.15.
For adding / new entries (not used for held-position decisions)
| Level | Price | From close | Note |
|---|
| Buy zone | $199.34–204.56 | -1.0% to -3.6% | 200-day SMA, 40-wk SMA, 50% retr. |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $199.34 | -3.6% | trading downgrade one state; re-anchor to S2 193.63–197.63 |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $212.19 | +2.7% | top of R1 (wk low 08-28, wk low 09-18) |
| Trading (10–20 day) state | Established Down: Below 50-day; daily RS vs S&P Est. Down. |
Scores · Trend 53.2
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 4.6 + 2.3 = 6.9 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 25 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 53.2 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Neutral |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Neutral |
| Trend (confirmed) | Neutral |
✔ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 6/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✔ No lower high vs cycle high 5/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Up → 10-02 Up → 10-09 Up → 10-16 Up → 10-23 Neutral → 10-30 Neutral. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 27.8
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 0.0 + 10.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 8 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — BOUNCE tag — oversold & turning up inside a down structure (no boost) | 2.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 7.3 / 20 |
| Raw | 27.8 (Established Down) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 27.8 Established Down |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✔ Close above 200-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✖ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 0/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (NVDA close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 4 Early Down (−) → | -4.99% | -3.43% | Est. Up ≥ 216.58 (+4.8%) · Est. Down < 212.59 |
| Trend · XLK | 4 Early Down (−) → | -2.41% | -2.32% | Est. Up ≥ 210.41 (+1.8%) · Est. Down < 206.54 |
| Trend · SOXX (info) | 1 Established Up (+) → | +4.83% | +0.00% | Est. Up ≥ 196.54 (-4.9%) · Est. Down < 149.73 |
| Trading · S&P | 5 Established Down (−) → | -1.98% | -1.33% | Est. Up ≥ 248.52 (+20.2%) · Early Up ≥ 211.00 · Est. Down < 209.87 |
| Trading · XLK | 1 Established Up (+) ↑ | +1.27% | +3.44% | Est. Up ≥ 204.58 (-1.0%) · Est. Down < 202.67 |
| Trading · SOXX (info) | 1 Established Up (+) ↑ | +2.77% | +6.90% | Est. Up ≥ 201.88 (-2.3%) · Est. Down < 172.84 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 206.69)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 232.28–236.54 | +12.4% to +14.4% | wk high 06-05 232.28 · wk high 09-04 234.76 · wk high 05-15 236.54 |
| R2 | 213.99–214.39 | +3.5% to +3.7% | wk high 06-26 213.99 · wk high 07-24 214.39 |
| R1 | 207.25–212.19 | +0.3% to +2.7% | wk low 08-28 207.25 · wk low 09-18 208.93 · wk high ’25-10-31 212.19 |
| S1 | 199.34–204.56 | -1.0% to -3.6% | 200-day SMA 204.56 · 40-wk SMA 204.15 · 50% 203.82 · wk low 06-12 199.34 |
| S2 | 193.63–197.63 | -4.4% to -6.3% | wk high 02-27 197.63 · wk high ’25-10-10 195.62 · wk low 05-08 194.74 · 61.8% 194.49 · wk high 02-13 193.66 · wk high 01-09 193.63 |
| S3 | 184.47–190.01 | -8.1% to -10.8% | wk low 07-31 190.01 · wk low 07-03 189.80 · wk high 03-20 188.88 · wk high ’25-12-12 188.00 · wk high ’25-08-29 184.47 |
| S4 | 176.76–180.28 | -12.8% to -14.5% | wk high ’25-09-12 180.28 · wk low ’25-11-07 178.91 · wk low 01-23 177.61 · wk low ’25-10-24 176.76 |
| S5 | 169.55–174.64 | -15.5% to -18.0% | wk low 03-06 174.64 · wk low 02-06 171.03 · wk low ’25-12-19 170.31 · wk low ’25-11-28 169.55 |
| ATH | 243.37 | +17.7% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 199.34 (-3.6%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 193.63–197.63.
- Trend Breakdown (reference, S2 floor): Friday close < 193.63 (-6.3%): information only, no verdict impact. Next support S3 184.47–190.01.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 216.58 (+4.8%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 216.58 · Est. Down < 212.59 (+2.9%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 248.52 · Early Up ≥ 211.00 · Est. Down < 209.87.
Sluymer context — all 15 reports
- CB Sep 15 p36: “challenge first support at 207 with critical support/stop loss near 190.”
- CB Sep 22 p33: the consolidation below 236 should “resolve to the upside with 265 the next extension level.”
- CB Oct 6 p43: “finally resolving its Q3 trading range to the upside with the next extension level at 265.”
- RM Oct 9: SOX “stalling short term”; “premature to conclude a cycle top is in place.”
- CB Oct 13 p36: “NVDA is pulling back from its 162% extension near 242 with support between 210-217.”
- CB Oct 13: “The SOX Semiconductor remains a lightning rod… Another pullback is underway”; “we expect pullbacks will be short lived.”
- CB Oct 13 sector table: XLK relative to the S&P is Early Up (−) / Early Down (tactical / trading).
- CB Oct 13: semis pulling back but “premature to conclude… the beginning of a bear market”; the Weekly Quadrant Balance “is moving toward oversold levels with early signs of bottoming”.
- CB Oct 13: rising rates remain “the second obvious risk”; key S&P support 7508, resistance 7817 then 8053; US 10-yr “beginning to stall at its next extension level at 5.35%”.
Notes & caveats
Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLK (10 pts) ; SOXX is info only. Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Holder levels (simple S/R: 40-wk SMA, 200-day SMA, 50%/61.8% retracements, 2-yr weekly swings and prior breakouts, ATH; ≥2 tools within 3% per band): Breakout = top of R1; Profit-Taking = next band above it, else the ATH, else none (blue sky); Trade Breakdown = the 40-wk SMA (Friday close below it = flag, verdict REVIEW); Trend Breakdown (S2 floor) and Profit-Taking are reference only and do not change the verdict. Trend Score (8–16 wk) = relative strength (30 pts) + structure (30 pts) rescaled to 100: Up ≥ 60, Neutral 45–59, Down < 45, confirmed after two consecutive Friday closes; descriptive, not a forecast. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).