TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
MTUM ETF
iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF · held position
Last Price $278.33
Unrealized G/L -12.1% (−$9,146)
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
Portfolio weight 1.86% (US)
REVIEWTrend is Down (score 28) and Friday close below the 40-wk SMA ($290.56). No trade yet: re-check the thesis.
Trend health
Trend Score (8–16 wk)
● Down
Score 28/100. Lags S&P; below rising 40-wk.
Opportunity cost (relative strength, weekly)
Lagging the S&P 500 for 3 weeks (-8.5% relative)
Lagging S&P 500 for 3 weeks (-8.5% relative)
Key levels for holders
Breakout Level
confirms hold | Friday close above $290.56 | +4.4% | top of R1 (wk low 07-31, wk low 05-22) |
Profit-Taking Zone (ref.)
reference · rebalance if overweight | $293.27–299.23 | +5.4% to +7.5% | wk low 07-17, wk low 09-04, wk low 09-18 |
Trade Breakdown
review thesis, no trade | TRIGGERED · reclaim $290.56 | +4.4% | 40-wk SMA 290.56 |
Trend Breakdown (ref.)
reference · no verdict impact | Friday close below $248.78 | -10.6% | trend stop; next support $235.59–242.25 |
If broken, then…
Trade Breakdown (40-wk SMA; triggered at $290.56): review the thesis (earnings, estimates, guidance). No trade yet.
Trend Breakdown (reference only) (Friday close < $248.78): no verdict impact; reassess if the story has also weakened. Next support $235.59–242.25.
Sluymer's view: No direct call. No direct call: the momentum factor is not covered in the 15 reports.
Watch this week: Fri Nov 6: a Friday close ≥ $301.53 (+8.3%) lifts RS vs the S&P off Est. Down; a Friday close back above the 40-wk SMA $290.56 clears the Trade Breakdown.
APPENDIX · MTUM · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARDHeld-card Trade Breakdown level = 40-wk SMA 290.56 (already below on the Friday close: Trade Breakdown triggered).
For adding / new entries (not used for held-position decisions)
| Level | Price | From close | Note |
|---|
| Buy zone | $256.04–262.10 | -5.8% to -8.0% | wk high 01-30, wk high 01-16, wk high ’25-10-31 |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $256.04 | -8.0% | trading downgrade one state; re-anchor to S2 248.78–252.45 |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $290.56 | +4.4% | top of R1 (wk low 07-31, wk low 05-22) |
| Trading (10–20 day) state | Established Down: Below 50-day; daily RS vs S&P Est. Down. |
Scores · Trend 28.0
| RS vs S&P (20); no sector benchmark for this ETF | 0.0 / 20 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 14 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/50 | 28.0 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Down |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Down |
| Trend (confirmed) | Down |
✖ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 0/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Neutral → 10-02 Up → 10-09 Up → 10-16 Down → 10-23 Down → 10-30 Down. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 17.9
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 0.0 + 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 8 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — negative & falling | 2.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 7.4 / 20 |
| Raw | 17.9 (Established Down) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 17.9 Established Down |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✖ Close above 200-day SMA 0/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (MTUM close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 5 Established Down (−) → | -6.12% | -2.08% | Est. Up ≥ 344.92 (+23.9%) · Early Up ≥ 303.14 · Est. Down < 301.53 |
| Trend · S&P 500 | 5 Established Down (−) → | -6.12% | -2.08% | Est. Up ≥ 344.92 (+23.9%) · Early Up ≥ 303.14 · Est. Down < 301.53 |
| Trading · S&P | 5 Established Down (−) → | -3.82% | -4.84% | Est. Up ≥ 353.58 (+27.0%) · Early Up ≥ 289.47 · Est. Down < 287.93 |
| Trading · S&P 500 | 5 Established Down (−) → | -3.82% | -4.84% | Est. Up ≥ 353.58 (+27.0%) · Early Up ≥ 289.47 · Est. Down < 287.93 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 278.33)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 307.96–311.96 | +10.6% to +12.1% | wk high 05-15 307.96 · wk high 09-11 311.02 · wk low 10-02 311.96 |
| R2 | 293.27–299.23 | +5.4% to +7.5% | wk low 07-17 293.27 · wk low 09-04 293.33 · wk low 09-18 297.37 · wk low 06-12 299.23 |
| R1 | 282.65–290.56 | +1.6% to +4.4% | wk low 07-31 282.65 · wk low 05-22 287.38 · 50% 287.50 · 200-day SMA 290.25 · 40-wk SMA 290.56 |
| S1 | 256.04–262.10 | -5.8% to -8.0% | wk high 01-30 262.10 · wk high 01-16 260.12 · wk high ’25-10-31 258.96 · wk high ’25-09-26 258.00 · wk high ’25-10-17 257.93 · wk high 02-27 256.79 · wk high ’25-12-12 256.74 · wk high ’25-12-26 256.04 |
| S2 | 248.78–252.45 | -9.3% to -10.6% | wk low 01-23 252.45 · wk low 01-02 250.19 · wk high ’25-08-15 248.90 · wk low ’25-10-24 248.78 |
| S3 | 235.59–242.25 | -13.0% to -15.4% | wk low 02-06 242.25 · wk low ’25-12-19 241.74 · wk high ’25-07-04 240.75 · wk low ’25-08-22 239.79 · wk low ’25-09-05 239.49 · wk low 03-13 238.25 · wk low ’25-07-11 235.59 |
| ATH | 345.59 | +24.2% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 256.04 (-8.0%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 248.78–252.45.
- Trend Breakdown (reference, S2 floor): Friday close < 248.78 (-10.6%): information only, no verdict impact. Next support S3 235.59–242.25.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 344.92 (+23.9%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 303.14 · Est. Down < 301.53 (+8.3%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 353.58 · Early Up ≥ 289.47 · Est. Down < 287.93.
Sluymer context
- CB Oct 13: “Growth vs Value has broken its 2022-2026 uptrends but is oversold short-term with large-cap growth vs value improving the past few weeks.”
- CB Oct 13: semis pulling back but “premature to conclude… the beginning of a bear market”; the Weekly Quadrant Balance “is moving toward oversold levels with early signs of bottoming”.
- CB Oct 13: rising rates remain “the second obvious risk”; key S&P support 7508, resistance 7817 then 8053; US 10-yr “beginning to stall at its next extension level at 5.35%”.
Notes & caveats
Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and S&P 500 (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Holder levels (simple S/R: 40-wk SMA, 200-day SMA, 50%/61.8% retracements, 2-yr weekly swings and prior breakouts, ATH; ≥2 tools within 3% per band): Breakout = top of R1; Profit-Taking = next band above it, else the ATH, else none (blue sky); Trade Breakdown = the 40-wk SMA (Friday close below it = flag, verdict REVIEW); Trend Breakdown (S2 floor) and Profit-Taking are reference only and do not change the verdict. Trend Score (8–16 wk) = relative strength (30 pts) + structure (30 pts) rescaled to 100: Up ≥ 60, Neutral 45–59, Down < 45, confirmed after two consecutive Friday closes; descriptive, not a forecast. ETF (US momentum factor): both benchmark slots are the S&P 500. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).