TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
MSFT
Microsoft Corp. · held position
Last Price $520.99
Unrealized G/L +173.1% (+$54,814)
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
Portfolio weight 2.37% (US)
HOLDKeep the full position: trend Up, Friday close above the 40-wk SMA ($436.98). Profit-Taking is reference only.
Trend health
Trend Score (8–16 wk)
● Up
Score 88/100. Leads S&P and sector; above rising 40-wk.
Opportunity cost (relative strength, weekly)
Leading the S&P 500 for 14 weeks (+33.7% relative)
Leading tech (XLK) for 14 weeks (+34.0% relative)
Key levels for holders
Breakout Level
confirms hold | Friday close above $555.45 | +6.6% | top of R1 (wk high 10-16, wk high ’25-10-31) |
Profit-Taking Zone (ref.)
reference · rebalance if overweight | — | blue sky | none: blue sky above the Breakout |
Trade Breakdown
review thesis, no trade | Friday close below $436.98 | -16.1% | 40-wk SMA 436.98 |
Trend Breakdown (ref.)
reference · no verdict impact | Friday close below $486.00 | -6.7% | trend stop; next support $470.88–483.74 |
If broken, then…
Trade Breakdown (40-wk SMA; Friday close < $436.98): review the thesis (earnings, estimates, guidance). No trade yet.
Trend Breakdown (reference only) (Friday close < $486.00): no verdict impact; reassess if the story has also weakened. Next support $470.88–483.74.
Sluymer's view: Partly agrees. Last named Sep 8: “MSFT is pausing near resistance at 507 with support starting at 478 followed by 453” (CB Sep 8).
Watch this week: Fri Nov 6: a Friday close ≥ $493.56 (-5.3%) keeps RS vs the S&P at Est. Up or better; a Friday close below the 40-wk SMA $436.98 is the Trade Breakdown.
APPENDIX · MSFT · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARDHeld-card Trade Breakdown level = 40-wk SMA 436.98.
For adding / new entries (not used for held-position decisions)
| Level | Price | From close | Note |
|---|
| Buy zone | $505.04–519.30 | -0.3% to -3.1% | wk high ’25-09-19, wk high 08-28, wk high 08-14 |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $505.04 | -3.1% | trading downgrade one state; re-anchor to S2 486.00–500.70 |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $555.45 | +6.6% | top of R1 (wk high 10-16, wk high ’25-10-31) |
| Trading (10–20 day) state | Early Up: Above 50-day; daily RS vs S&P Neutral. |
Scores · Trend 88.3
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 18.0 + 10.0 = 28.0 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 25 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 88.3 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Up |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Up |
| Trend (confirmed) | Up |
✔ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 6/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 5/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Up → 10-02 Up → 10-09 Up → 10-16 Up → 10-23 Up → 10-30 Up. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 63.6
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 12.0 + 10.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 20 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — negative & falling | 2.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 19.1 / 20 |
| Raw | 63.6 (Early Up) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 63.6 Early Up |
| ✔ Close above 50-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 3/3 · ✔ Close above 100-day SMA 4/4 · ✔ Close above 200-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✖ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 0/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (MSFT close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 1 Established Up (−) → | +7.28% | -0.32% | Est. Up ≥ 493.56 (-5.3%) · Est. Down < 364.69 |
| Trend · XLK | 1 Established Up (+) → | +10.20% | +0.83% | Est. Up ≥ 479.59 (-7.9%) · Est. Down < 364.69 |
| Trading · S&P | 3 Neutral (+) → | +0.04% | +0.24% | Est. Up ≥ 544.97 (+4.6%) · Early Up ≥ 521.99 · Est. Down < 519.20 |
| Trading · XLK | 1 Established Up (+) ↑ | +3.34% | +5.08% | Est. Up ≥ 506.18 (-2.8%) · Est. Down < 435.06 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 520.99)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R1 | 551.15–555.45 | +5.8% to +6.6% | wk high 10-16 551.15 · wk high ’25-10-31 553.72 · ATH ’25-07-31 555.45 |
| S1 | 505.04–519.30 | -0.3% to -3.1% | wk high ’25-09-19 519.30 · wk high 08-28 517.78 · wk high 08-14 513.73 · wk low ’25-10-17 506.00 · wk low ’25-09-26 505.04 |
| S2 | 486.00–500.70 | -3.9% to -6.7% | wk low ’25-07-25 500.70 · wk high ’25-12-05 493.50 · wk low ’25-11-07 493.25 · wk low ’25-09-05 492.37 · wk high 01-09 489.70 · wk low 09-11 486.00 |
| S3 | 470.88–483.74 | -7.1% to -9.6% | wk high 01-30 483.74 · wk low 08-21 477.15 · wk low ’25-06-27 472.51 · wk low ’25-12-19 470.88 |
| ATH | 555.45 | +6.6% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 505.04 (-3.1%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 486.00–500.70.
- Trend Breakdown (reference, S2 floor): Friday close < 486.00 (-6.7%): information only, no verdict impact. Next support S3 470.88–483.74.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 493.56 (-5.3%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 493.56 · Est. Down < 364.69 (-30.0%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 544.97 · Early Up ≥ 521.99 · Est. Down < 519.20.
Sluymer context
- CB Aug 18 p43: “MSFT’s rebound is pausing near next resistance between 470-493 with support in the 405-430 range expected to hold.”
- CB Sep 8 p46: “MSFT is pausing near resistance at 507 with support starting at 478 followed by 453 near its rising blue 50-day ma.”
- CB Oct 13 sector table: XLK relative to the S&P is Early Up (−) / Early Down (tactical / trading).
- CB Oct 13: semis pulling back but “premature to conclude… the beginning of a bear market”; the Weekly Quadrant Balance “is moving toward oversold levels with early signs of bottoming”.
- CB Oct 13: rising rates remain “the second obvious risk”; key S&P support 7508, resistance 7817 then 8053; US 10-yr “beginning to stall at its next extension level at 5.35%”.
Notes & caveats
Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLK (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Holder levels (simple S/R: 40-wk SMA, 200-day SMA, 50%/61.8% retracements, 2-yr weekly swings and prior breakouts, ATH; ≥2 tools within 3% per band): Breakout = top of R1; Profit-Taking = next band above it, else the ATH, else none (blue sky); Trade Breakdown = the 40-wk SMA (Friday close below it = flag, verdict REVIEW); Trend Breakdown (S2 floor) and Profit-Taking are reference only and do not change the verdict. Trend Score (8–16 wk) = relative strength (30 pts) + structure (30 pts) rescaled to 100: Up ≥ 60, Neutral 45–59, Down < 45, confirmed after two consecutive Friday closes; descriptive, not a forecast. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).