META

APPENDIX · META · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD

Held-card Trade Breakdown level = 40-wk SMA 627.15 (already below on the Friday close: Trade Breakdown triggered).

For adding / new entries (not used for held-position decisions)

Level	Price	From close	Note
Buy zone	$599.66–612.43	-1.4% to -3.4%	wk high 08-14, wk high 06-19, wk high 2024-10-11
Trading stop · daily close	below $599.66	-3.4%	trading downgrade one state; re-anchor to S2 580.00–592.60
Breakout Buy Level	close above $643.00	+3.5%	top of R1 (40-wk SMA, wk low 02-20)
Trading (10–20 day) state	Established Down: Below 50-day; daily RS vs S&P Est. Down.

Scores · Trend 30.0

RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10)	0.0 + 9.0 = 9.0 / 30
Structure (6 checks)	9 / 30
Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60	30.0 / 100
Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45)	Down
Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays)	confirmed Up; Down pending 1/2
Trend (confirmed)	Up
✖ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 0/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✖ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 0/5 Weekly raw states: 09-25 Up → 10-02 Up → 10-09 Up → 10-16 Up → 10-23 Up → 10-30 Down. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only).

Scores · Trading 21.1

RS (S&P 20 + sector 10)	2.0 + 0.0 / 30
Structure	6 / 25
Coppock (daily) — negative & falling	2.5 / 25
Band position	10.7 / 20
Raw	21.1 (Established Down)
Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2)	+0
Final	21.1 Established Down
✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✔ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 3/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✖ Close above 200-day SMA 0/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✖ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 0/5

Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)

Horizon · benchmark	State	RS vs SMA	RS chg	Phase-transition price (META close needed)
Trend · S&P	5 Established Down (−) ↓	-2.61%	-12.39%	Est. Up ≥ 711.25 (+14.5%) · Early Up ≥ 631.47 · Est. Down < 628.11
Trend · XLC	1 Established Up (−) →	+6.04%	-4.26%	Est. Up ≥ 581.30 (-6.4%) · Est. Down < 567.10
Trading · S&P	5 Established Down (+) →	-4.59%	+1.43%	Early Up ≥ 647.49 · Est. Down < 644.03
Trading · XLC	5 Established Down (−) →	-1.65%	-0.78%	Est. Up ≥ 805.33 (+29.7%) · Early Up ≥ 630.04 · Est. Down < 626.67

Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 621.03)

Band	Range	Distance	Tools in the cluster
R3	686.08–691.65	+10.5% to +11.4%	wk high 07-17 686.08 · wk low ’25-10-10 690.51 · wk low ’25-08-01 691.20 · wk high 04-17 691.52 · wk low ’25-07-18 691.65
R2	662.67–678.67	+6.7% to +9.3%	wk high ’25-05-16 662.67 · wk high 03-06 672.77 · wk high ’25-12-26 673.58 · wk low ’25-06-20 678.67
R1	627.15–643.00	+1.0% to +3.5%	40-wk SMA 627.15 · wk low 02-20 628.15 · 200-day SMA 632.04 · wk high ’25-01-10 632.10 · wk high ’25-03-28 633.88 · 50% 638.02 · wk high 2024-12-13 638.40 · wk high 05-29 643.00
S1	599.66–612.43	-1.4% to -3.4%	wk high 08-14 612.43 · wk high 06-19 605.81 · wk high 2024-10-11 602.95 · wk high 2024-11-01 601.20 · 61.8% 600.68 · wk low 01-23 600.00 · wk high 2024-11-15 599.66
S2	580.00–592.60	-4.6% to -6.6%	wk low 05-15 592.60 · wk low ’25-01-17 588.55 · wk low ’25-01-03 583.85 · wk low ’25-11-21 581.25 · wk low 2024-12-20 580.00
S3	549.05–561.52	-9.6% to -11.6%	wk low 2024-10-25 561.52 · wk low 06-12 557.01 · wk low 2024-11-22 549.05
ATH	796.25	+28.2%	all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used)

Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)

Stops & phase transitions

Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 599.66 (-3.4%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 580.00–592.60.
Trend Breakdown (reference, S2 floor): Friday close < 580.00 (-6.6%): information only, no verdict impact. Next support S3 549.05–561.52.
Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 711.25 (+14.5%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 631.47 · Est. Down < 628.11 (+1.1%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
Trading vs S&P: Early Up ≥ 647.49 · Est. Down < 644.03.

Sluymer context

CB Aug 18 p45: “META remains range bound with a pullback retesting important support and stop loss level between 525-540.”
CB Sep 22 p35: “META has reversed its 2025-2026 downtrend… pullbacks will be short lived with 796 followed by 967 next technical levels.”
CB Sep 29 p39: “META is pulling back from short-term overbought levels with 622-652 support near the 50-62% retracement levels.”
CB Oct 13 p41: “META is consolidating its recent surge in a sideways band that likely has another 2-3 weeks before another upside attempt develops based on the daily momentum in the top right panel.”
CB Oct 13 sector table: XLC relative to the S&P is Est. Down (+) / Est. Down (+) (tactical / trading).
CB Oct 13: semis pulling back but “premature to conclude… the beginning of a bear market”; the Weekly Quadrant Balance “is moving toward oversold levels with early signs of bottoming”.
CB Oct 13: rising rates remain “the second obvious risk”; key S&P support 7508, resistance 7817 then 8053; US 10-yr “beginning to stall at its next extension level at 5.35%”.

Notes & caveats

Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLC (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Holder levels (simple S/R: 40-wk SMA, 200-day SMA, 50%/61.8% retracements, 2-yr weekly swings and prior breakouts, ATH; ≥2 tools within 3% per band): Breakout = top of R1; Profit-Taking = next band above it, else the ATH, else none (blue sky); Trade Breakdown = the 40-wk SMA (Friday close below it = flag, verdict REVIEW); Trend Breakdown (S2 floor) and Profit-Taking are reference only and do not change the verdict. Trend Score (8–16 wk) = relative strength (30 pts) + structure (30 pts) rescaled to 100: Up ≥ 60, Neutral 45–59, Down < 45, confirmed after two consecutive Friday closes; descriptive, not a forecast. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).

Breakout Level confirms hold	Friday close above $643.00	+3.5%	top of R1 (40-wk SMA, wk low 02-20)
Profit-Taking Zone (ref.) reference · rebalance if overweight	$662.67–678.67	+6.7% to +9.3%	wk high ’25-05-16, wk high 03-06, wk high ’25-12-26
Trade Breakdown review thesis, no trade	TRIGGERED · reclaim $627.15	+1.0%	40-wk SMA 627.15
Trend Breakdown (ref.) reference · no verdict impact	Friday close below $580.00	-6.6%	trend stop; next support $549.05–561.52

Trend health

Key levels for holders