LLY

APPENDIX · LLY · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD

Held-card Trade Breakdown level = 40-wk SMA 1097.37.

For adding / new entries (not used for held-position decisions)

Level	Price	From close	Note
Buy zone	$1215.00–1249.45	-11.3% to -13.8%	wk high 07-10, wk high 07-31, wk high 10-02
Trading stop · daily close	below $1215.00	-13.8%	trading downgrade one state; re-anchor to S2 1150.10–1182.73
Breakout Buy Level	close above $1449.68	+2.9%	top of R1 (ATH 10-30)
Trading (10–20 day) state	Established Up: Above 50-day; daily RS vs S&P Est. Up.

Scores · Trend 96.2

RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10)	20.0 + 7.7 = 27.7 / 30
Structure (6 checks)	30 / 30
Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60	96.2 / 100
Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45)	Up
Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays)	confirmed Up
Trend (confirmed)	Up
✔ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 6/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✔ No lower high vs cycle high 5/5 · ✔ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 5/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5 Weekly raw states: 09-25 Up → 10-02 Down → 10-09 Neutral → 10-16 Up → 10-23 Up → 10-30 Up. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only).

Scores · Trading 87.2

RS (S&P 20 + sector 10)	20.0 + 10.0 / 30
Structure	25 / 25
Coppock (daily) — positive & rising	25.0 / 25
Band position	7.2 / 20
Raw	87.2 (Established Up)
Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2)	+0
Final	87.2 Established Up
✔ Close above 50-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 3/3 · ✔ Close above 100-day SMA 4/4 · ✔ Close above 200-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5

Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)

Horizon · benchmark	State	RS vs SMA	RS chg	Phase-transition price (LLY close needed)
Trend · S&P	1 Established Up (+) →	+19.28%	+13.95%	Est. Up ≥ 1190.92 (-15.5%) · Est. Down < 986.57
Trend · XLV	2 Early Up (+) →	+8.67%	+7.79%	Est. Up ≥ 1304.72 (-7.4%) · Est. Down < 1297.82
Trading · S&P	1 Established Up (+) →	+9.59%	+4.65%	Est. Up ≥ 1296.72 (-8.0%) · Est. Down < 986.57
Trading · XLV	1 Established Up (+) →	+5.76%	+2.61%	Est. Up ≥ 1340.12 (-4.9%) · Est. Down < 993.32

Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 1409.38)

Band	Range	Distance	Tools in the cluster
R1	1449.68–1449.68	+2.9% to +2.9%	ATH 10-30 1449.68
S1	1215.00–1249.45	-11.3% to -13.8%	wk high 07-10 1249.45 · wk high 07-31 1232.00 · wk high 10-02 1215.00
S2	1150.10–1182.73	-16.1% to -18.4%	wk high 06-12 1182.73 · 50% 1150.10
S3	1109.15–1134.40	-19.5% to -21.3%	wk low 07-17 1134.40 · wk high 01-09 1133.95 · wk low 10-09 1131.21 · wk high 02-06 1114.00 · wk low 09-11 1113.29 · wk high ’25-11-28 1111.99 · wk low 08-07 1109.15
ATH	1449.68	+2.9%	all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used)

Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)

Stops & phase transitions

Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 1215.00 (-13.8%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 1150.10–1182.73.
Trend Breakdown (reference, S2 floor): Friday close < 1150.10 (-18.4%): information only, no verdict impact. Next support S3 1109.15–1134.40.
Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 1190.92 (-15.5%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 1190.92 · Est. Down < 986.57 (-30.0%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 1296.72 · Est. Down < 986.57.

Sluymer context

CB Oct 13: Healthcare: “ABT, ISRG and BSX reviewed.”
CB Oct 13 sector table: XLV relative to the S&P is Early Up / Early Up (tactical / trading).
CB Oct 13: semis pulling back but “premature to conclude… the beginning of a bear market”; the Weekly Quadrant Balance “is moving toward oversold levels with early signs of bottoming”.
CB Oct 13: rising rates remain “the second obvious risk”; key S&P support 7508, resistance 7817 then 8053; US 10-yr “beginning to stall at its next extension level at 5.35%”.

Notes & caveats

Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLV (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Holder levels (simple S/R: 40-wk SMA, 200-day SMA, 50%/61.8% retracements, 2-yr weekly swings and prior breakouts, ATH; ≥2 tools within 3% per band): Breakout = top of R1; Profit-Taking = next band above it, else the ATH, else none (blue sky); Trade Breakdown = the 40-wk SMA (Friday close below it = flag, verdict REVIEW); Trend Breakdown (S2 floor) and Profit-Taking are reference only and do not change the verdict. Trend Score (8–16 wk) = relative strength (30 pts) + structure (30 pts) rescaled to 100: Up ≥ 60, Neutral 45–59, Down < 45, confirmed after two consecutive Friday closes; descriptive, not a forecast. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).

Breakout Level confirms hold	Friday close above $1449.68	+2.9%	top of R1 (ATH 10-30)
Profit-Taking Zone (ref.) reference · rebalance if overweight	—	blue sky	none: blue sky above the Breakout
Trade Breakdown review thesis, no trade	Friday close below $1097.37	-22.1%	40-wk SMA 1097.37
Trend Breakdown (ref.) reference · no verdict impact	Friday close below $1150.10	-18.4%	trend stop; next support $1109.15–1134.40

Trend health

Key levels for holders