TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
JPM
JPMorgan Chase & Co. · held position
Last Price $337.98
Unrealized G/L +43.0% (+$33,725)
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
Portfolio weight 3.06% (US)
REVIEWTrend is Down (score 37). No trade yet: re-check the thesis.
Trend health
Trend Score (8–16 wk)
● Down
Score 37/100. Lags S&P and sector; above rising 40-wk.
Opportunity cost (relative strength, weekly)
Lagging the S&P 500 for 6 weeks (-2.7% relative)
Lagging financials (XLF) for 4 weeks (-4.0% relative)
Key levels for holders
Breakout Level
confirms hold | Friday close above $350.37 | +3.7% | top of R1 (wk high 06-26, wk high 10-16) |
Profit-Taking Zone (ref.)
reference · rebalance if overweight | $362.86–366.50 | +7.4% to +8.4% | wk high 09-04, ATH 08-13 |
Trade Breakdown
review thesis, no trade | Friday close below $323.52 | -4.3% | 40-wk SMA 323.52 |
Trend Breakdown (ref.)
reference · no verdict impact | Friday close below $318.01 | -5.9% | trend stop; next support $312.12–316.30 |
If broken, then…
Trade Breakdown (40-wk SMA; Friday close < $323.52): review the thesis (earnings, estimates, guidance). No trade yet.
Trend Breakdown (reference only) (Friday close < $318.01): no verdict impact; reassess if the story has also weakened. Next support $312.12–316.30.
Sluymer's view: Partly agrees. “JPM has pulled back to its 50-62% support band between 321-330 just above its rising 200-day ma which we expect will support an oversold rebound heading into earnings season” (CB Oct 13).
Watch this week: Fri Nov 6: a Friday close ≥ $342.96 (+1.5%) lifts RS vs the S&P off Est. Down; a Friday close below the 40-wk SMA $323.52 is the Trade Breakdown.
APPENDIX · JPM · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARDHeld-card Trade Breakdown level = 40-wk SMA 323.52.
For adding / new entries (not used for held-position decisions)
| Level | Price | From close | Note |
|---|
| Buy zone | $330.86–337.25 | -0.2% to -2.1% | wk high 01-09, wk high ’25-12-26 |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $330.86 | -2.1% | trading downgrade one state; re-anchor to S2 318.01–326.40 |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $350.37 | +3.7% | top of R1 (wk high 06-26, wk high 10-16) |
| Trading (10–20 day) state | Established Up: Below 50-day; daily RS vs S&P Est. Up. |
Scores · Trend 36.7
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 2.0 + 0.0 = 2.0 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 20 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 36.7 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Down |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Down |
| Trend (confirmed) | Down |
✔ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 6/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Up → 10-02 Neutral → 10-09 Down → 10-16 Down → 10-23 Down → 10-30 Down. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 76.1
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 20.0 + 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 13 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — positive & rising | 25.0 / 25 |
| Band position | 18.1 / 20 |
| Raw | 76.1 (Established Up) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 76.1 Established Up |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✔ Close above 200-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (JPM close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 5 Established Down (+) → | -2.04% | +0.25% | Est. Up ≥ 346.34 (+2.5%) · Early Up ≥ 344.79 · Est. Down < 342.96 |
| Trend · XLF | 5 Established Down (−) → | -3.07% | -2.53% | Est. Up ≥ 349.00 (+3.3%) · Est. Down < 346.88 |
| Trading · S&P | 1 Established Up (+) → | +1.77% | +0.34% | Est. Up ≥ 333.24 (-1.4%) · Est. Down < 294.45 |
| Trading · XLF | 5 Established Down (−) → | -1.62% | -2.06% | Est. Up ≥ 368.39 (+9.0%) · Early Up ≥ 343.90 · Est. Down < 342.06 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 337.98)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R2 | 362.86–366.50 | +7.4% to +8.4% | wk high 09-04 362.86 · ATH 08-13 366.50 |
| R1 | 343.45–350.37 | +1.6% to +3.7% | wk high 06-26 343.45 · wk high 10-16 344.40 · wk low 08-21 350.37 |
| S1 | 330.86–337.25 | -0.2% to -2.1% | wk high 01-09 337.25 · wk high ’25-12-26 330.86 |
| S2 | 318.01–326.40 | -3.4% to -5.9% | wk high 02-13 326.40 · wk low 07-17 325.75 · wk low 10-09 325.07 · wk low 07-03 325.01 · 40-wk SMA 323.52 · 200-day SMA 323.23 · 50% 322.80 · wk high ’25-11-14 322.25 · wk high 04-24 320.24 · wk high ’25-10-03 318.01 |
| S3 | 312.12–316.30 | -6.4% to -7.7% | wk high 05-08 316.30 · 61.8% 312.49 · wk high ’25-10-17 312.12 |
| ATH | 366.50 | +8.4% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 330.86 (-2.1%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 318.01–326.40.
- Trend Breakdown (reference, S2 floor): Friday close < 318.01 (-5.9%): information only, no verdict impact. Next support S3 312.12–316.30.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 346.34 (+2.5%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 344.79 · Est. Down < 342.96 (+1.5%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 333.24 · Est. Down < 294.45.
Sluymer context
- CB Oct 13: “Banks, such as JPM and BAC, are oversold at support.”
- CB Oct 13 p58: “JPM has pulled back to its 50-62% support band between 321-330 just above its rising 200-day ma which we expect will support an oversold rebound heading into earnings season.”
- CB Oct 13 sector table: XLF relative to the S&P is Est. Down (+) / Early Up (tactical / trading).
- CB Oct 13: semis pulling back but “premature to conclude… the beginning of a bear market”; the Weekly Quadrant Balance “is moving toward oversold levels with early signs of bottoming”.
- CB Oct 13: rising rates remain “the second obvious risk”; key S&P support 7508, resistance 7817 then 8053; US 10-yr “beginning to stall at its next extension level at 5.35%”.
Notes & caveats
Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLF (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Holder levels (simple S/R: 40-wk SMA, 200-day SMA, 50%/61.8% retracements, 2-yr weekly swings and prior breakouts, ATH; ≥2 tools within 3% per band): Breakout = top of R1; Profit-Taking = next band above it, else the ATH, else none (blue sky); Trade Breakdown = the 40-wk SMA (Friday close below it = flag, verdict REVIEW); Trend Breakdown (S2 floor) and Profit-Taking are reference only and do not change the verdict. Trend Score (8–16 wk) = relative strength (30 pts) + structure (30 pts) rescaled to 100: Up ≥ 60, Neutral 45–59, Down < 45, confirmed after two consecutive Friday closes; descriptive, not a forecast. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).