JNJ

APPENDIX · JNJ · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD

Held-card Trade Breakdown level = 40-wk SMA 248.42.

For adding / new entries (not used for held-position decisions)

Level	Price	From close	Note
Buy zone	$245.17–251.71	-5.4% to -7.9%	wk high 03-06, 50% retr., wk low 08-07
Trading stop · daily close	below $245.17	-7.9%	trading downgrade one state; re-anchor to S2 241.60–243.92
Breakout Buy Level	close above $276.47	+3.9%	top of R1 (wk high 07-10, wk high 07-31)
Trading (10–20 day) state	Early Up: Above 50-day; daily RS vs S&P Est. Up.

Scores · Trend 85.0

RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10)	20.0 + 1.0 = 21.0 / 30
Structure (6 checks)	30 / 30
Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60	85.0 / 100
Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45)	Up
Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays)	confirmed Up
Trend (confirmed)	Up
✔ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 6/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✔ No lower high vs cycle high 5/5 · ✔ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 5/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5 Weekly raw states: 09-25 Up → 10-02 Neutral → 10-09 Neutral → 10-16 Neutral → 10-23 Up → 10-30 Up. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only).

Scores · Trading 74.9

RS (S&P 20 + sector 10)	18.0 + 0.0 / 30
Structure	25 / 25
Coppock (daily) — positive & rising	25.0 / 25
Band position	6.9 / 20
Raw	74.9 (Early Up)
Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2)	+0
Final	74.9 Early Up
✔ Close above 50-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 3/3 · ✔ Close above 100-day SMA 4/4 · ✔ Close above 200-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5

Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)

Horizon · benchmark	State	RS vs SMA	RS chg	Phase-transition price (JNJ close needed)
Trend · S&P	1 Established Up (+) ↑	+4.50%	+8.02%	Est. Up ≥ 262.41 (-1.4%) · Est. Down < 241.14
Trend · XLV	5 Established Down (+) →	-4.94%	+2.18%	Est. Up ≥ 312.57 (+17.4%) · Early Up ≥ 287.95 · Est. Down < 286.42
Trading · S&P	1 Established Up (−) →	+2.31%	-1.35%	Est. Up ≥ 261.65 (-1.7%) · Est. Down < 208.02
Trading · XLV	5 Established Down (−) ↓	-1.33%	-3.27%	Est. Up ≥ 284.55 (+6.9%) · Early Up ≥ 270.57 · Est. Down < 269.13

Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 266.17)

Band	Range	Distance	Tools in the cluster
R2	281.07–282.02	+5.6% to +6.0%	wk high 09-04 281.07 · ATH 10-30 282.02
R1	269.43–276.47	+1.2% to +3.9%	wk high 07-10 269.43 · wk high 07-31 274.90 · wk high 09-25 275.23 · wk high 08-21 276.47
S1	245.17–251.71	-5.4% to -7.9%	wk high 03-06 251.71 · 50% 251.19 · wk low 08-07 250.44 · 40-wk SMA 248.42 · 200-day SMA 247.48 · wk high 04-03 247.21 · wk low 07-24 245.49 · wk low 10-16 245.17
S2	241.60–243.92	-8.4% to -9.2%	61.8% 243.92 · wk high 06-12 241.60
S3	232.24–235.50	-11.5% to -12.7%	wk high 05-22 235.50 · wk low 03-06 235.43 · wk low 03-27 232.24
ATH	282.02	+6.0%	all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used)

Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)

Stops & phase transitions

Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 245.17 (-7.9%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 241.60–243.92.
Trend Breakdown (reference, S2 floor): Friday close < 241.60 (-9.2%): information only, no verdict impact. Next support S3 232.24–235.50.
Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 262.41 (-1.4%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 262.41 · Est. Down < 241.14 (-9.4%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 261.65 · Est. Down < 208.02.

Sluymer context

CB Oct 13: Healthcare: “ABT, ISRG and BSX reviewed.”
CB Oct 13 sector table: XLV relative to the S&P is Early Up / Early Up (tactical / trading).
CB Oct 13: semis pulling back but “premature to conclude… the beginning of a bear market”; the Weekly Quadrant Balance “is moving toward oversold levels with early signs of bottoming”.
CB Oct 13: rising rates remain “the second obvious risk”; key S&P support 7508, resistance 7817 then 8053; US 10-yr “beginning to stall at its next extension level at 5.35%”.

Notes & caveats

Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLV (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Holder levels (simple S/R: 40-wk SMA, 200-day SMA, 50%/61.8% retracements, 2-yr weekly swings and prior breakouts, ATH; ≥2 tools within 3% per band): Breakout = top of R1; Profit-Taking = next band above it, else the ATH, else none (blue sky); Trade Breakdown = the 40-wk SMA (Friday close below it = flag, verdict REVIEW); Trend Breakdown (S2 floor) and Profit-Taking are reference only and do not change the verdict. Trend Score (8–16 wk) = relative strength (30 pts) + structure (30 pts) rescaled to 100: Up ≥ 60, Neutral 45–59, Down < 45, confirmed after two consecutive Friday closes; descriptive, not a forecast. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).

Breakout Level confirms hold	Friday close above $276.47	+3.9%	top of R1 (wk high 07-10, wk high 07-31)
Profit-Taking Zone (ref.) reference · rebalance if overweight	$281.07–282.02	+5.6% to +6.0%	wk high 09-04, ATH 10-30
Trade Breakdown review thesis, no trade	Friday close below $248.42	-6.7%	40-wk SMA 248.42
Trend Breakdown (ref.) reference · no verdict impact	Friday close below $241.60	-9.2%	trend stop; next support $232.24–235.50

Trend health

Key levels for holders