HOOD

APPENDIX · HOOD · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD

Held-card Trade Breakdown level = 40-wk SMA 91.79 (already below on the Friday close: Trade Breakdown triggered).

For adding / new entries (not used for held-position decisions)

Level	Price	From close	Note
Buy zone	$83.68–84.75	-1.1% to -2.3%	wk high 03-06, wk low 07-31
Trading stop · daily close	below $83.68	-2.3%	trading downgrade one state; re-anchor to S2 77.10–78.93
Breakout Buy Level	close above $93.36	+9.0%	top of R1 (wk low 08-21, 50% retr.)
Trading (10–20 day) state	Established Down: Below 50-day; daily RS vs S&P Est. Down.

Scores · Trend 8.3

RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10)	0.0 + 0.0 = 0.0 / 30
Structure (6 checks)	5 / 30
Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60	8.3 / 100
Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45)	Down
Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays)	confirmed Down
Trend (confirmed)	Down
✖ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 0/6 · ✖ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 0/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✖ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 0/5 Weekly raw states: 09-25 Up → 10-02 Up → 10-09 Neutral → 10-16 Down → 10-23 Down → 10-30 Down. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only).

Scores · Trading 20.3

RS (S&P 20 + sector 10)	0.0 + 0.0 / 30
Structure	0 / 25
Coppock (daily) — negative & falling	2.5 / 25
Band position	17.8 / 20
Raw	20.3 (Established Down)
Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2)	+0
Final	20.3 Established Down
✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✖ Close above 200-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 0/3 · ✖ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 0/5

Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)

Horizon · benchmark	State	RS vs SMA	RS chg	Phase-transition price (HOOD close needed)
Trend · S&P	5 Established Down (−) →	-17.11%	-13.14%	Early Up ≥ 102.87 · Est. Down < 102.32
Trend · XLF	5 Established Down (−) →	-18.14%	-15.54%	Early Up ≥ 104.33 · Est. Down < 103.78
Trading · S&P	5 Established Down (−) →	-8.01%	-4.58%	Early Up ≥ 92.97 · Est. Down < 92.47
Trading · XLF	5 Established Down (−) →	-11.18%	-6.86%	Early Up ≥ 96.05 · Est. Down < 95.53

Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 85.68)

Band	Range	Distance	Tools in the cluster
R3	99.00–101.71	+15.5% to +18.7%	wk low ’25-08-22 99.00 · wk low 09-04 100.68 · wk low 09-18 101.71
R2	94.40–95.66	+10.2% to +11.6%	wk high 05-29 94.40 · wk low 10-16 94.52 · wk low ’25-09-05 95.66
R1	91.44–93.36	+6.7% to +9.0%	wk low 08-21 91.44 · 50% 91.76 · 40-wk SMA 91.79 · 200-day SMA 92.34 · wk low 06-26 92.80 · wk high 04-17 93.32 · wk low ’25-08-01 93.36
S1	83.68–84.75	-1.1% to -2.3%	wk high 03-06 84.75 · wk low 07-31 83.68
S2	77.10–78.93	-7.9% to -10.0%	wk low 06-12 78.93 · wk high ’25-06-06 77.80 · 61.8% 77.10
S3	69.22–70.43	-17.8% to -19.2%	wk low 02-13 70.43 · wk low 05-01 69.93 · wk low 02-27 69.22
ATH	153.86	+79.6%	all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used)

Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)

Stops & phase transitions

Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 83.68 (-2.3%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 77.10–78.93.
Trend Breakdown (reference, S2 floor): Friday close < 77.10 (-10.0%): information only, no verdict impact. Next support S3 69.22–70.43.
Trend vs S&P: above its 16-wk avg ≥ 102.87 · Est. Down < 102.32 (+19.4%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
Trading vs S&P: Early Up ≥ 92.97 · Est. Down < 92.47.

Sluymer context

CB Oct 13: “Banks, such as JPM and BAC, are oversold at support.”
CB Oct 13 sector table: XLF relative to the S&P is Est. Down (+) / Early Up (tactical / trading).
CB Oct 13: semis pulling back but “premature to conclude… the beginning of a bear market”; the Weekly Quadrant Balance “is moving toward oversold levels with early signs of bottoming”.
CB Oct 13: rising rates remain “the second obvious risk”; key S&P support 7508, resistance 7817 then 8053; US 10-yr “beginning to stall at its next extension level at 5.35%”.

Notes & caveats

Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLF (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Holder levels (simple S/R: 40-wk SMA, 200-day SMA, 50%/61.8% retracements, 2-yr weekly swings and prior breakouts, ATH; ≥2 tools within 3% per band): Breakout = top of R1; Profit-Taking = next band above it, else the ATH, else none (blue sky); Trade Breakdown = the 40-wk SMA (Friday close below it = flag, verdict REVIEW); Trend Breakdown (S2 floor) and Profit-Taking are reference only and do not change the verdict. Trend Score (8–16 wk) = relative strength (30 pts) + structure (30 pts) rescaled to 100: Up ≥ 60, Neutral 45–59, Down < 45, confirmed after two consecutive Friday closes; descriptive, not a forecast. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).

Breakout Level confirms hold	Friday close above $93.36	+9.0%	top of R1 (wk low 08-21, 50% retr.)
Profit-Taking Zone (ref.) reference · rebalance if overweight	$94.40–95.66	+10.2% to +11.6%	wk high 05-29, wk low 10-16, wk low ’25-09-05
Trade Breakdown review thesis, no trade	TRIGGERED · reclaim $91.79	+7.1%	40-wk SMA 91.79
Trend Breakdown (ref.) reference · no verdict impact	Friday close below $77.10	-10.0%	trend stop; next support $69.22–70.43

Trend health

Key levels for holders