TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
GOOG
Alphabet Inc. (Class C) · held position
Last Price $278.27
Unrealized G/L +68.3% (+$35,689)
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
Portfolio weight 2.41% (US)
REVIEWHigh risk · consider trim 50%High risk: Trend Down (score 8); Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA ($337.63). Consider trimming 50% if the story has weakened.
Trend health
Trend Score (8–16 wk)
● Down
Score 8/100. Lags S&P and sector; below falling 40-wk.
Opportunity cost (relative strength, weekly)
Lagging the S&P 500 for 19 weeks (-25.1% relative)
Lagging comm. services (XLC) for 3 weeks (-11.6% relative)
Key levels for holders
Breakout Level
confirms hold | Friday close above $297.45 | +6.9% | top of R1 (wk high ’25-10-31, wk low 03-13) |
Profit-Taking Zone (ref.)
reference · rebalance if overweight | $303.29–311.07 | +9.0% to +11.8% | 61.8% retr., wk high 03-13 |
Trade Breakdown
review thesis, no trade | TRIGGERED · reclaim $337.63 | +21.3% | 40-wk SMA 337.63 |
Trend Breakdown (ref.)
reference · no verdict impact | Friday close below $202.88 | -27.1% | trend stop; next support $197.46–202.14 |
If broken, then…
Trade Breakdown (40-wk SMA; triggered at $337.63): review the thesis (earnings, estimates, guidance). No trade yet.
Trend Breakdown (reference only) (Friday close < $202.88): no verdict impact; reassess if the story has also weakened. Next support $197.46–202.14.
Sluymer's view: Partly agrees. “GOOGL continues to show signs of bottoming at important support near its red 200-day ma and 50-62% retracement band between 324-340 which serves as an important stop loss” (CB Oct 13; he charts GOOGL).
Watch this week: Fri Nov 6: a Friday close ≥ $330.91 (+18.9%) lifts RS vs the S&P off Est. Down; a Friday close back above the 40-wk SMA $337.63 clears the Trade Breakdown.
APPENDIX · GOOG · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARDHeld-card Trade Breakdown level = 40-wk SMA 337.63 (already below on the Friday close: Trade Breakdown triggered).
For adding / new entries (not used for held-position decisions)
| Level | Price | From close | Note |
|---|
| Buy zone | $271.41–271.54 | -2.4% to -2.5% | wk low 04-03, wk low ’25-11-14 |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $271.41 | -2.5% | trading downgrade one state; re-anchor to S2 202.88–208.70 |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $297.45 | +6.9% | top of R1 (wk high ’25-10-31, wk low 03-13) |
| Trading (10–20 day) state | Established Down: Below 50-day; daily RS vs S&P Est. Down. |
Scores · Trend 8.3
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 0.0 + 0.0 = 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 5 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 8.3 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Down |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Down |
| Trend (confirmed) | Down |
✖ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 0/6 · ✖ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 0/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✖ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 0/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Down → 10-02 Down → 10-09 Neutral → 10-16 Down → 10-23 Down → 10-30 Down. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 22.2
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 2.0 + 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 3 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — negative & falling | 2.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 14.7 / 20 |
| Raw | 22.2 (Established Down) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 22.2 Established Down |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✖ Close above 200-day SMA 0/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✖ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 0/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (GOOG close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 5 Established Down (−) → | -16.46% | -16.56% | Early Up ≥ 332.68 · Est. Down < 330.91 |
| Trend · XLC | 5 Established Down (−) → | -8.93% | -8.81% | Est. Up ≥ 351.97 (+26.5%) · Early Up ≥ 305.85 · Est. Down < 304.22 |
| Trading · S&P | 5 Established Down (+) → | -10.69% | +0.54% | Early Up ≥ 310.58 · Est. Down < 308.93 |
| Trading · XLC | 5 Established Down (−) → | -7.93% | -1.66% | Early Up ≥ 302.16 · Est. Down < 300.55 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 278.27)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 314.89–322.61 | +13.2% to +15.9% | wk low 07-24 314.89 · wk high 02-27 319.45 · wk low 01-23 319.54 · 50% 322.61 |
| R2 | 303.29–311.07 | +9.0% to +11.8% | 61.8% 303.29 · wk high 03-13 311.07 |
| R1 | 291.93–297.45 | +4.9% to +6.9% | wk high ’25-10-31 291.93 · wk low 03-13 293.93 · wk low 02-20 296.90 · wk low ’25-12-19 297.45 |
| S1 | 271.41–271.54 | -2.4% to -2.5% | wk low 04-03 271.54 · wk low ’25-11-14 271.41 |
| S2 | 202.88–208.70 | -25.0% to -27.1% | wk high ’25-02-07 208.70 · wk high 2024-12-20 202.88 |
| S3 | 197.46–202.14 | -27.4% to -29.0% | wk high ’25-01-10 202.14 · wk high ’25-07-25 198.97 · wk low ’25-08-22 197.46 |
| ATH | 404.47 | +45.4% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 271.41 (-2.5%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 202.88–208.70.
- Trend Breakdown (reference, S2 floor): Friday close < 202.88 (-27.1%): information only, no verdict impact. Next support S3 197.46–202.14.
- Trend vs S&P: above its 16-wk avg ≥ 332.68 · Est. Down < 330.91 (+18.9%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Early Up ≥ 310.58 · Est. Down < 308.93.
Sluymer context
- CB Sep 15 p38: “GOOGL has pulled back to its rising 200-day ma and is showing early signs of bottoming at its 50-62% retracement band.”
- CB Sep 22 p36: “GOOGL’s weekly momentum… is oversold and turning up as GOOGL bottoms at its 50-62% retracement level near its rising red 200-day ma.”
- CB Oct 6 p48: “…bottoms near support near its 50-62% retracement level between 324-340 coinciding with its red rising 200-day ma.”
- CB Oct 13 p42: “GOOGL continues to show signs of bottoming at important support near its red 200-day ma and 50-62% retracement band between 324-340 which serves as an important stop loss.”
- CB Oct 13 sector table: XLC relative to the S&P is Est. Down (+) / Est. Down (+) (tactical / trading).
- CB Oct 13: semis pulling back but “premature to conclude… the beginning of a bear market”; the Weekly Quadrant Balance “is moving toward oversold levels with early signs of bottoming”.
- CB Oct 13: rising rates remain “the second obvious risk”; key S&P support 7508, resistance 7817 then 8053; US 10-yr “beginning to stall at its next extension level at 5.35%”.
Notes & caveats
Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLC (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Holder levels (simple S/R: 40-wk SMA, 200-day SMA, 50%/61.8% retracements, 2-yr weekly swings and prior breakouts, ATH; ≥2 tools within 3% per band): Breakout = top of R1; Profit-Taking = next band above it, else the ATH, else none (blue sky); Trade Breakdown = the 40-wk SMA (Friday close below it = flag, verdict REVIEW); Trend Breakdown (S2 floor) and Profit-Taking are reference only and do not change the verdict. Trend Score (8–16 wk) = relative strength (30 pts) + structure (30 pts) rescaled to 100: Up ≥ 60, Neutral 45–59, Down < 45, confirmed after two consecutive Friday closes; descriptive, not a forecast. We hold GOOG (Class C); Sluymer's charts use GOOGL (Class A), the same company and near-identical trend. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).