TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
GLD ETF
SPDR Gold Shares · held position
Last Price $359.26
Unrealized G/L +136.0% (+$103,527)
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
Portfolio weight 4.87% (US)
REVIEWHigh risk · consider trim 50%High risk: Trend Down (score 10); Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA ($411.02). Consider trimming 50% if the story has weakened.
Trend health
Trend Score (8–16 wk)
● Down
Score 10/100. Lags S&P; below falling 40-wk.
Opportunity cost (relative strength, weekly)
Lagging the S&P 500 for 6 weeks (-10.5% relative)
Lagging S&P 500 for 6 weeks (-10.5% relative)
Key levels for holders
Breakout Level
confirms hold | Friday close above $368.52 | +2.6% | top of R1 (wk low ’25-10-31, wk low 06-26) |
Profit-Taking Zone (ref.)
reference · rebalance if overweight | $371.88–382.22 | +3.5% to +6.4% | wk low 06-12, 61.8% retr., wk high 07-24 |
Trade Breakdown
review thesis, no trade | TRIGGERED · reclaim $411.02 | +14.4% | 40-wk SMA 411.02 |
Trend Breakdown (ref.)
reference · no verdict impact | Friday close below $299.89 | -16.5% | trend stop; next support $291.78–295.32 |
If broken, then…
Trade Breakdown (40-wk SMA; triggered at $411.02): review the thesis (earnings, estimates, guidance). No trade yet.
Trend Breakdown (reference only) (Friday close < $299.89): no verdict impact; reassess if the story has also weakened. Next support $291.78–295.32.
Sluymer's view: Agrees. Gold (GLD tracks bullion): “broke below 4273 support challenging its next support band between 4053-4176”; oversold, a trading low likely in 1–2 weeks; a break below 3943 = failed bottom (CB Oct 13).
Watch this week: Fri Nov 6: a Friday close ≥ $384.19 (+6.9%) lifts RS vs the S&P off Est. Down; a Friday close back above the 40-wk SMA $411.02 clears the Trade Breakdown.
APPENDIX · GLD · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARDHeld-card Trade Breakdown level = 40-wk SMA 411.02 (already below on the Friday close: Trade Breakdown triggered).
For adding / new entries (not used for held-position decisions)
| Level | Price | From close | Note |
|---|
| Buy zone | $310.25–317.63 | -11.6% to -13.6% | wk high ’25-04-25, wk high ’25-06-13, wk high ’25-07-25 |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $310.25 | -13.6% | trading downgrade one state; re-anchor to S2 299.89–305.19 |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $368.52 | +2.6% | top of R1 (wk low ’25-10-31, wk low 06-26) |
| Trading (10–20 day) state | Established Down: Below 50-day; daily RS vs S&P Est. Down. |
Scores · Trend 10.0
| RS vs S&P (20); no sector benchmark for this ETF | 0.0 / 20 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 5 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/50 | 10.0 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Down |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Down |
| Trend (confirmed) | Down |
✖ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 0/6 · ✖ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 0/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✖ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 0/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Down → 10-02 Down → 10-09 Down → 10-16 Down → 10-23 Down → 10-30 Down. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 6.8
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 0.0 + 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 0 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — negative & falling | 2.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 4.3 / 20 |
| Raw | 6.8 (Established Down) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 6.8 Established Down |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✖ Close above 200-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 0/3 · ✖ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 0/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (GLD close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 5 Established Down (−) → | -7.48% | -5.89% | Est. Up ≥ 395.92 (+10.2%) · Early Up ≥ 386.24 · Est. Down < 384.19 |
| Trend · S&P 500 | 5 Established Down (−) → | -7.48% | -5.89% | Est. Up ≥ 395.92 (+10.2%) · Early Up ≥ 386.24 · Est. Down < 384.19 |
| Trading · S&P | 5 Established Down (−) → | -1.92% | -0.58% | Est. Up ≥ 387.05 (+7.7%) · Early Up ≥ 367.09 · Est. Down < 365.13 |
| Trading · S&P 500 | 5 Established Down (−) → | -1.92% | -0.58% | Est. Up ≥ 387.05 (+7.7%) · Early Up ≥ 367.09 · Est. Down < 365.13 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 359.26)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 383.60–388.39 | +6.8% to +8.1% | wk high 07-10 383.60 · wk high ’25-11-14 388.18 · wk low 09-18 388.39 |
| R2 | 371.88–382.22 | +3.5% to +6.4% | wk low 06-12 371.88 · 61.8% 380.04 · wk high 07-24 382.22 |
| R1 | 360.12–368.52 | +0.2% to +2.6% | wk low ’25-10-31 360.12 · wk low 06-26 363.32 · wk low 07-17 363.60 · wk low 07-31 366.53 · wk low ’25-11-21 368.52 |
| S1 | 310.25–317.63 | -11.6% to -13.6% | wk high ’25-04-25 317.63 · wk high ’25-06-13 317.60 · wk high ’25-07-25 316.24 · wk high ’25-05-09 315.62 · wk high ’25-08-08 313.53 · wk high ’25-05-23 310.25 |
| S2 | 299.89–305.19 | -15.1% to -16.5% | wk low ’25-08-22 305.19 · wk low ’25-06-13 305.06 · wk low ’25-08-01 300.96 · wk low ’25-06-27 299.89 |
| S3 | 291.78–295.32 | -17.8% to -18.8% | wk low ’25-05-02 295.32 · wk low ’25-05-16 291.78 |
| ATH | 509.70 | +41.9% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 310.25 (-13.6%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 299.89–305.19.
- Trend Breakdown (reference, S2 floor): Friday close < 299.89 (-16.5%): information only, no verdict impact. Next support S3 291.78–295.32.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 395.92 (+10.2%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 386.24 · Est. Down < 384.19 (+6.9%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 387.05 · Early Up ≥ 367.09 · Est. Down < 365.13.
Sluymer context
- CB Oct 13 p28: “Gold broke below 4273 support challenging its next support band between 4053-4176… a trading low is likely to develop in the coming 1-2 weeks with a move above first resistance at 4273 needed to signal a short-term trend reversal.”
- CB Oct 13 p27: “Gold remains in a choppy trading range above key support between 3943-4150… a break below 3943 support would signal a failed bottoming pattern and confirm a new downtrend with next support near 3440.”
- CB Oct 13: semis pulling back but “premature to conclude… the beginning of a bear market”; the Weekly Quadrant Balance “is moving toward oversold levels with early signs of bottoming”.
- CB Oct 13: rising rates remain “the second obvious risk”; key S&P support 7508, resistance 7817 then 8053; US 10-yr “beginning to stall at its next extension level at 5.35%”.
Notes & caveats
Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and S&P 500 (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Holder levels (simple S/R: 40-wk SMA, 200-day SMA, 50%/61.8% retracements, 2-yr weekly swings and prior breakouts, ATH; ≥2 tools within 3% per band): Breakout = top of R1; Profit-Taking = next band above it, else the ATH, else none (blue sky); Trade Breakdown = the 40-wk SMA (Friday close below it = flag, verdict REVIEW); Trend Breakdown (S2 floor) and Profit-Taking are reference only and do not change the verdict. Trend Score (8–16 wk) = relative strength (30 pts) + structure (30 pts) rescaled to 100: Up ≥ 60, Neutral 45–59, Down < 45, confirmed after two consecutive Friday closes; descriptive, not a forecast. ETF (gold bullion): breadth is set neutral (equity breadth does not apply); both benchmark slots are the S&P 500. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).