FCX

APPENDIX · FCX · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD

Held-card Trade Breakdown level = 40-wk SMA 64.96 (already below on the Friday close: Trade Breakdown triggered).

For adding / new entries (not used for held-position decisions)

Level	Price	From close	Note
Buy zone	$58.19–59.20	-4.2% to -5.8%	wk low 02-20, wk low 05-22, wk low 02-06
Trading stop · daily close	below $58.19	-5.8%	trading downgrade one state; re-anchor to S2 55.49–56.00
Breakout Buy Level	close above $65.98	+6.8%	top of R1 (40-wk SMA, 200-day SMA)
Trading (10–20 day) state	Established Down: Below 50-day; daily RS vs S&P Est. Down.

Scores · Trend 34.8

RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10)	4.6 + 2.3 = 6.9 / 30
Structure (6 checks)	14 / 30
Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60	34.8 / 100
Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45)	Down
Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays)	confirmed Down
Trend (confirmed)	Down
✖ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 0/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5 Weekly raw states: 09-25 Up → 10-02 Up → 10-09 Up → 10-16 Up → 10-23 Down → 10-30 Down. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only).

Scores · Trading 18.4

RS (S&P 20 + sector 10)	0.0 + 0.0 / 30
Structure	3 / 25
Coppock (daily) — negative & falling	2.5 / 25
Band position	12.9 / 20
Raw	18.4 (Established Down)
Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2)	+0
Final	18.4 Established Down
✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✖ Close above 200-day SMA 0/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✖ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 0/5

Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)

Horizon · benchmark	State	RS vs SMA	RS chg	Phase-transition price (FCX close needed)
Trend · S&P	4 Early Down (−) →	-8.48%	-9.23%	Est. Up ≥ 69.04 (+11.8%) · Est. Down < 58.43
Trend · XLB	4 Early Down (−) →	-11.94%	-13.27%	Est. Up ≥ 71.80 (+16.2%) · Est. Down < 62.22
Trading · S&P	5 Established Down (−) →	-5.80%	-4.74%	Early Up ≥ 65.56 · Est. Down < 65.21
Trading · XLB	5 Established Down (−) →	-8.93%	-6.71%	Early Up ≥ 67.59 · Est. Down < 67.23

Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 61.77)

Band	Range	Distance	Tools in the cluster
R3	69.44–70.97	+12.4% to +14.9%	wk high 01-30 69.44 · wk high 02-27 69.75 · wk high 04-24 70.97
R2	67.01–68.85	+8.5% to +11.5%	wk low 09-18 67.01 · wk low 10-02 68.20 · wk high 05-15 68.85
R1	64.96–65.98	+5.2% to +6.8%	40-wk SMA 64.96 · 200-day SMA 65.24 · wk high 07-24 65.43 · 50% 65.51 · wk high 02-13 65.98
S1	58.19–59.20	-4.2% to -5.8%	wk low 02-20 59.20 · wk low 05-22 58.30 · wk low 02-06 58.23 · wk low 07-31 58.19
S2	55.49–56.00	-9.3% to -10.2%	wk low 07-10 56.00 · wk low 05-08 55.49
S3	50.12–50.79	-17.8% to -18.9%	wk low 03-20 50.79 · wk high 2024-10-25 50.12
ATH	80.24	+29.9%	all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used)

Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)

Stops & phase transitions

Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 58.19 (-5.8%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 55.49–56.00.
Trend Breakdown (reference, S2 floor): Friday close < 55.49 (-10.2%): information only, no verdict impact. Next support S3 50.12–50.79.
Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 69.04 (+11.8%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 69.04 · Est. Down < 58.43 (-5.4%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
Trading vs S&P: Early Up ≥ 65.56 · Est. Down < 65.21.

Sluymer context

CB Aug 18 p53: FCX “is challenging resistance… which we expect will resolve to the upside with 95 the next extension level.”
CB Sep 8 p55: “FCX’s long-term profile remains positive with a short-term pullback underway toward support between 65-71.”
CB Sep 22 p40: “FCX’s long-term profile remains bullish with the recent pullback oversold and bottoming at its 50-day ma.”
CB Oct 6 p55: “FCX is bottoming at support in the upper 60s-low 70s near its 50-62% retracement band.”
CB Oct 13 p50: “FCX also remains in a consolidation above support in the upper 60s-low 70s. First resistance is at 74 followed by 80 then 95-96 at the 262% extension level.”
CB Oct 13 sector table: XLB relative to the S&P is Est. Down / Est. Down (+) (tactical / trading).
CB Oct 13: semis pulling back but “premature to conclude… the beginning of a bear market”; the Weekly Quadrant Balance “is moving toward oversold levels with early signs of bottoming”.
CB Oct 13: rising rates remain “the second obvious risk”; key S&P support 7508, resistance 7817 then 8053; US 10-yr “beginning to stall at its next extension level at 5.35%”.

Notes & caveats

Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLB (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Holder levels (simple S/R: 40-wk SMA, 200-day SMA, 50%/61.8% retracements, 2-yr weekly swings and prior breakouts, ATH; ≥2 tools within 3% per band): Breakout = top of R1; Profit-Taking = next band above it, else the ATH, else none (blue sky); Trade Breakdown = the 40-wk SMA (Friday close below it = flag, verdict REVIEW); Trend Breakdown (S2 floor) and Profit-Taking are reference only and do not change the verdict. Trend Score (8–16 wk) = relative strength (30 pts) + structure (30 pts) rescaled to 100: Up ≥ 60, Neutral 45–59, Down < 45, confirmed after two consecutive Friday closes; descriptive, not a forecast. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).

Breakout Level confirms hold	Friday close above $65.98	+6.8%	top of R1 (40-wk SMA, 200-day SMA)
Profit-Taking Zone (ref.) reference · rebalance if overweight	$67.01–68.85	+8.5% to +11.5%	wk low 09-18, wk low 10-02, wk high 05-15
Trade Breakdown review thesis, no trade	TRIGGERED · reclaim $64.96	+5.2%	40-wk SMA 64.96
Trend Breakdown (ref.) reference · no verdict impact	Friday close below $55.49	-10.2%	trend stop; next support $50.12–50.79

Trend health

Key levels for holders