TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
ETN
Eaton Corp. · held position
Last Price $391.70
Unrealized G/L -0.8% (−$296)
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
Portfolio weight 0.91% (US)
REVIEWTrend is Down (score 27) and Friday close below the 40-wk SMA ($398.67). No trade yet: re-check the thesis.
Trend health
Trend Score (8–16 wk)
● Down
Score 27/100. Lags S&P and sector; below rising 40-wk.
Opportunity cost (relative strength, weekly)
Lagging the S&P 500 for 3 weeks (-11.3% relative)
Lagging industrials (XLI) for 3 weeks (-12.9% relative)
Key levels for holders
Breakout Level
confirms hold | Friday close above $399.56 | +2.0% | top of R1 (wk high ’25-11-07, 50% retr.) |
Profit-Taking Zone (ref.)
reference · rebalance if overweight | $426.59–436.74 | +8.9% to +11.5% | wk high 06-05, wk high 09-11, wk high 05-01 |
Trade Breakdown
review thesis, no trade | TRIGGERED · reclaim $398.67 | +1.8% | 40-wk SMA 398.67 |
Trend Breakdown (ref.)
reference · no verdict impact | Friday close below $367.64 | -6.1% | trend stop; next support $353.40–363.42 |
If broken, then…
Trade Breakdown (40-wk SMA; triggered at $398.67): review the thesis (earnings, estimates, guidance). No trade yet.
Trend Breakdown (reference only) (Friday close < $367.64): no verdict impact; reassess if the story has also weakened. Next support $353.40–363.42.
Sluymer's view: Partly agrees. “ETN remains range bound but we view its consolidation as orderly above support near its red 200-day ma” (CB Oct 13).
Watch this week: Fri Nov 6: a Friday close ≥ $409.82 (+4.6%) lifts RS vs the S&P off Est. Down; a Friday close back above the 40-wk SMA $398.67 clears the Trade Breakdown.
APPENDIX · ETN · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARDHeld-card Trade Breakdown level = 40-wk SMA 398.67 (already below on the Friday close: Trade Breakdown triggered).
For adding / new entries (not used for held-position decisions)
| Level | Price | From close | Note |
|---|
| Buy zone | $377.75–388.26 | -0.9% to -3.6% | wk low 05-08, wk high ’25-10-10, wk low 09-18 |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $377.75 | -3.6% | trading downgrade one state; re-anchor to S2 367.64–375.04 |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $399.56 | +2.0% | top of R1 (wk high ’25-11-07, 50% retr.) |
| Trading (10–20 day) state | Early Down: Below 50-day; daily RS vs S&P Early Up. |
Scores · Trend 27.2
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 0.0 + 2.3 = 2.3 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 14 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 27.2 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Down |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Down |
| Trend (confirmed) | Down |
✖ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 0/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Up → 10-02 Up → 10-09 Up → 10-16 Down → 10-23 Down → 10-30 Down. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 31.5
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 15.4 + 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 3 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — BOUNCE tag — oversold & turning up inside a down structure (no boost) | 2.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 10.6 / 20 |
| Raw | 31.5 (Early Down) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 31.5 Early Down |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✖ Close above 200-day SMA 0/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✖ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 0/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (ETN close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 5 Established Down (−) → | -9.90% | -4.45% | Est. Up ≥ 444.12 (+13.4%) · Early Up ≥ 412.01 · Est. Down < 409.82 |
| Trend · XLI | 4 Early Down (−) → | -6.85% | -5.24% | Est. Up ≥ 399.82 (+2.1%) · Est. Down < 378.02 |
| Trading · S&P | 2 Early Up (+) ↑ | +3.17% | +1.48% | Est. Up ≥ 470.80 (+20.2%) · Early Up ≥ 379.18 · Est. Down < 377.15 |
| Trading · XLI | 5 Established Down (−) → | -0.33% | -1.20% | Est. Up ≥ 525.29 (+34.1%) · Early Up ≥ 392.16 · Est. Down < 390.07 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 391.70)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R2 | 426.59–436.74 | +8.9% to +11.5% | wk high 06-05 426.59 · wk high 09-11 430.25 · wk high 05-01 435.43 · wk high 06-26 436.74 |
| R1 | 394.14–399.56 | +0.6% to +2.0% | wk high ’25-11-07 394.14 · 50% 396.89 · 200-day SMA 397.34 · 40-wk SMA 398.67 · wk high ’25-08-01 399.56 |
| S1 | 377.75–388.26 | -0.9% to -3.6% | wk low 05-08 388.26 · wk high ’25-10-10 387.62 · wk low 09-18 387.00 · wk low 09-04 384.77 · wk high ’25-09-26 382.92 · … +1 more · wk high 03-27 380.45 · wk high 2024-11-29 379.99 · wk high 03-06 378.07 · wk high ’25-01-24 378.00 · 61.8% 377.75 |
| S2 | 367.64–375.04 | -4.3% to -6.1% | wk low 06-12 375.04 · wk low 05-22 367.64 |
| S3 | 353.40–363.42 | -7.2% to -9.8% | wk high ’25-07-04 363.42 · wk low 10-23 358.51 · wk low 07-31 358.13 · wk high ’25-08-29 357.16 · wk high ’25-12-12 354.37 · wk low ’25-10-24 353.56 · wk low 2024-11-22 353.42 · wk high ’25-01-10 353.40 |
| ATH | 478.00 | +22.0% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 377.75 (-3.6%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 367.64–375.04.
- Trend Breakdown (reference, S2 floor): Friday close < 367.64 (-6.1%): information only, no verdict impact. Next support S3 353.40–363.42.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 444.12 (+13.4%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 412.01 · Est. Down < 409.82 (+4.6%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 470.80 · Early Up ≥ 379.18 · Est. Down < 377.15.
Sluymer context
- CB Sep 8 p43: “After stalling at its 162% extension level near 472 and pulling back, ETN is oversold short-term and beginning to bottom near its rising 200-day ma.”
- CB Sep 15 p43: “ETN remains in volatile trading range above support and a stop loss level near 375-380.”
- CB Sep 22 p39: “ETN has consolidated above 380 support and 200-day moving average with another rally taking hold.”
- CB Oct 13: “GEV and ETN remain in consolidations above their support bands.”
- CB Oct 13 p53: “ETN remains range bound but we view its consolidation as orderly above support near its red 200-day ma.”
- CB Oct 13 sector table: XLI relative to the S&P is Est. Down / Est. Down (+) (tactical / trading).
- CB Oct 13: semis pulling back but “premature to conclude… the beginning of a bear market”; the Weekly Quadrant Balance “is moving toward oversold levels with early signs of bottoming”.
- CB Oct 13: rising rates remain “the second obvious risk”; key S&P support 7508, resistance 7817 then 8053; US 10-yr “beginning to stall at its next extension level at 5.35%”.
Notes & caveats
Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLI (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Holder levels (simple S/R: 40-wk SMA, 200-day SMA, 50%/61.8% retracements, 2-yr weekly swings and prior breakouts, ATH; ≥2 tools within 3% per band): Breakout = top of R1; Profit-Taking = next band above it, else the ATH, else none (blue sky); Trade Breakdown = the 40-wk SMA (Friday close below it = flag, verdict REVIEW); Trend Breakdown (S2 floor) and Profit-Taking are reference only and do not change the verdict. Trend Score (8–16 wk) = relative strength (30 pts) + structure (30 pts) rescaled to 100: Up ≥ 60, Neutral 45–59, Down < 45, confirmed after two consecutive Friday closes; descriptive, not a forecast. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).