TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
CTVA
Corteva Inc. · held position
Last Price $11.88
Unrealized G/L +6.9% (+$374)
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
Portfolio weight 0.15% (US)
REVIEWFriday close below the 40-wk SMA ($12.11). No trade yet: re-check the thesis.
Trend health
Trend Score (8–16 wk)
● Up
Score 32/100. Lags S&P and sector; below rising 40-wk. Raw Down this Friday, needs a 2nd to confirm.
Opportunity cost (relative strength, weekly)
Lagging the S&P 500 for 1 week (-6.0% relative)
Lagging materials (XLB) for 2 weeks (-12.7% relative)
Key levels for holders
Breakout Level
confirms hold | Friday close above $12.45 | +4.8% | top of R1 (200-day SMA, 40-wk SMA) |
Profit-Taking Zone (ref.)
reference · rebalance if overweight | $12.49–12.85 | +5.1% to +8.2% | 61.8% retr., wk high 05-08, wk high 04-10 |
Trade Breakdown
review thesis, no trade | TRIGGERED · reclaim $12.11 | +2.0% | 40-wk SMA 12.11 |
Trend Breakdown (ref.)
reference · no verdict impact | Friday close below $11.15 | -6.1% | trend stop; next support $10.71–10.77 |
If broken, then…
Trade Breakdown (40-wk SMA; triggered at $12.11): review the thesis (earnings, estimates, guidance). No trade yet.
Trend Breakdown (reference only) (Friday close < $11.15): no verdict impact; reassess if the story has also weakened. Next support $10.71–10.77.
Sluymer's view: No direct call. Not named in the 15 reports. Sector: XLB is Est. Down / Est. Down (+) vs the S&P, “becoming oversold short-term” (CB Oct 13).
Watch this week: Fri Nov 6: a Friday close ≥ $12.16 (+2.4%) lifts RS vs the S&P off Est. Down; a Friday close back above the 40-wk SMA $12.11 clears the Trade Breakdown.
APPENDIX · CTVA · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARDHeld-card Trade Breakdown level = 40-wk SMA 12.11 (already below on the Friday close: Trade Breakdown triggered).
For adding / new entries (not used for held-position decisions)
| Level | Price | From close | Note |
|---|
| Buy zone | $11.48–11.76 | -1.0% to -3.4% | wk low 04-24, wk high ’25-07-04, wk high 02-06 |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $11.48 | -3.4% | trading downgrade one state; re-anchor to S2 11.15–11.39 |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $12.45 | +4.8% | top of R1 (200-day SMA, 40-wk SMA) |
| Trading (10–20 day) state | Early Down: Below 50-day; daily RS vs S&P Est. Down. |
Scores · Trend 31.7
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 0.0 + 0.0 = 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 19 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 31.7 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Down |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Up; Down pending 1/2 |
| Trend (confirmed) | Up |
✖ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 0/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✔ No lower high vs cycle high 5/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Down → 10-02 Neutral → 10-09 Up → 10-16 Up → 10-23 Up → 10-30 Down. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 30.9
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 2.0 + 1.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 11 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — negative & falling | 2.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 14.3 / 20 |
| Raw | 30.9 (Early Down) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 30.9 Early Down |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✔ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 3/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✖ Close above 200-day SMA 0/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (CTVA close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 5 Established Down (−) ↓ | -5.05% | -8.68% | Est. Up ≥ 14.54 (+22.4%) · Early Up ≥ 12.23 · Est. Down < 12.16 |
| Trend · XLB | 5 Established Down (−) ↓ | -8.57% | -12.75% | Est. Up ≥ 15.36 (+29.3%) · Early Up ≥ 12.71 · Est. Down < 12.64 |
| Trading · S&P | 5 Established Down (+) → | -2.09% | +5.65% | Est. Up ≥ 15.15 (+27.5%) · Early Up ≥ 12.10 · Est. Down < 12.03 |
| Trading · XLB | 5 Established Down (+) → | -5.34% | +3.46% | Early Up ≥ 12.47 · Est. Down < 12.40 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 11.88)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 13.63–13.65 | +14.7% to +14.9% | wk high 09-04 13.63 · wk high 07-31 13.65 |
| R2 | 12.49–12.85 | +5.1% to +8.2% | 61.8% 12.49 · wk high 05-08 12.65 · wk high 04-10 12.85 |
| R1 | 12.10–12.45 | +1.9% to +4.8% | 200-day SMA 12.10 · 40-wk SMA 12.11 · wk high 03-06 12.14 · wk low 07-17 12.45 |
| S1 | 11.48–11.76 | -1.0% to -3.4% | wk low 04-24 11.76 · wk high ’25-07-04 11.61 · wk high 02-06 11.50 · wk low 10-02 11.48 |
| S2 | 11.15–11.39 | -4.1% to -6.1% | wk high ’25-09-12 11.39 · wk high ’25-08-29 11.28 · wk low 03-06 11.23 · wk low 06-12 11.17 · wk high ’25-07-25 11.15 |
| S3 | 10.71–10.77 | -9.3% to -9.8% | wk low ’25-07-18 10.77 · wk low ’25-09-05 10.71 |
| ATH | 14.62 | +23.1% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 11.48 (-3.4%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 11.15–11.39.
- Trend Breakdown (reference, S2 floor): Friday close < 11.15 (-6.1%): information only, no verdict impact. Next support S3 10.71–10.77.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 14.54 (+22.4%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 12.23 · Est. Down < 12.16 (+2.4%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 15.15 · Early Up ≥ 12.10 · Est. Down < 12.03.
Sluymer context
- CB Oct 13 sector table: XLB relative to the S&P is Est. Down / Est. Down (+) (tactical / trading).
- CB Oct 13: semis pulling back but “premature to conclude… the beginning of a bear market”; the Weekly Quadrant Balance “is moving toward oversold levels with early signs of bottoming”.
- CB Oct 13: rising rates remain “the second obvious risk”; key S&P support 7508, resistance 7817 then 8053; US 10-yr “beginning to stall at its next extension level at 5.35%”.
Notes & caveats
Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLB (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Holder levels (simple S/R: 40-wk SMA, 200-day SMA, 50%/61.8% retracements, 2-yr weekly swings and prior breakouts, ATH; ≥2 tools within 3% per band): Breakout = top of R1; Profit-Taking = next band above it, else the ATH, else none (blue sky); Trade Breakdown = the 40-wk SMA (Friday close below it = flag, verdict REVIEW); Trend Breakdown (S2 floor) and Profit-Taking are reference only and do not change the verdict. Trend Score (8–16 wk) = relative strength (30 pts) + structure (30 pts) rescaled to 100: Up ≥ 60, Neutral 45–59, Down < 45, confirmed after two consecutive Friday closes; descriptive, not a forecast. CTVA prices are spin-adjusted by Yahoo for the Oct 1 Vylor spin, so history is continuous. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).