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TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD

COST

Costco Wholesale · held position
Last Price $1019.26
Unrealized G/L +33.8% (+$31,160)
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
Portfolio weight 3.35% (US)
HOLDKeep the full position: trend Up, Friday close above the 40-wk SMA ($971.60). Profit-Taking is reference only.

Trend health

Trend Score (8–16 wk)
● Up
Score 92/100. Leads S&P and sector; above rising 40-wk.
Opportunity cost (relative strength, weekly)
Leading the S&P 500 for 3 weeks (+10.2% relative)
Leading staples (XLP) for 6 weeks (+4.7% relative)

Key levels for holders

Breakout Level
confirms hold		Friday close above $1035.82+1.6%top of R1 (wk high 03-06, wk high 10-23)
Profit-Taking Zone (ref.)
reference · rebalance if overweight		$1066.00–1096.50+4.6% to +7.6%wk high ’25-03-07, wk high ’25-06-06, wk high ’25-02-14
Trade Breakdown
review thesis, no trade		Friday close below $971.60-4.7%40-wk SMA 971.60
Trend Breakdown (ref.)
reference · no verdict impact		Friday close below $960.46-5.8%trend stop; next support $925.00–945.28
If broken, then…
Trade Breakdown (40-wk SMA; Friday close < $971.60): review the thesis (earnings, estimates, guidance). No trade yet.
Trend Breakdown (reference only) (Friday close < $960.46): no verdict impact; reassess if the story has also weakened. Next support $925.00–945.28.
Sluymer's view: No direct call. Not named in the 15 reports. Sector: XLP is Est. Down (+) / Early Up vs the S&P (CB Oct 13).
Watch this week: Fri Nov 6: a Friday close ≥ $938.73 (-7.9%) keeps RS vs the S&P at Est. Up or better; a Friday close below the 40-wk SMA $971.60 is the Trade Breakdown.
Rule-based demo inspired by Robert Sluymer's published framework; not RBC research or advice. Data: Yahoo Finance; levels computed from price data. Prepared Nov 3, 2026, 2:53 PM PT. Appendix + "For adding/new entries" on p.2.
APPENDIX · COST · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Held-card Trade Breakdown level = 40-wk SMA 971.60.

For adding / new entries (not used for held-position decisions)

LevelPriceFrom closeNote
Buy zone$987.55–1018.00-0.1% to -3.1%wk high ’25-05-02, wk high 2024-12-20, wk high ’25-06-27
Trading stop · daily closebelow $987.55-3.1%trading downgrade one state; re-anchor to S2 960.46–985.15
Breakout Buy Levelclose above $1035.82+1.6%top of R1 (wk high 03-06, wk high 10-23)
Trading (10–20 day) stateEarly Up: Above 50-day; daily RS vs S&P Est. Up.

Scores · Trend 91.7

RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10)20.0 + 10.0 = 30.0 / 30
Structure (6 checks)25 / 30
Score = (RS + structure) × 100/6091.7 / 100
Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45)Up
Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays)confirmed Up
Trend (confirmed)Up
✔ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 6/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 5/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Down → 10-02 Down → 10-09 Down → 10-16 Up → 10-23 Up → 10-30 Up. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only).

Scores · Trading 74.1

RS (S&P 20 + sector 10)20.0 + 10.0 / 30
Structure25 / 25
Coppock (daily) — positive but rolling over from >80th pctile6.2 / 25
Band position12.8 / 20
Raw74.1 (Early Up)
Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2)+0
Final74.1 Early Up
✔ Close above 50-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 3/3 · ✔ Close above 100-day SMA 4/4 · ✔ Close above 200-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5

Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)

Horizon · benchmarkStateRS vs SMARS chgPhase-transition price (COST close needed)
Trend · S&P1 Established Up (+) →+7.98%+3.41%Est. Up ≥ 938.73 (-7.9%) · Est. Down < 860.88
Trend · XLP1 Established Up (+) →+1.63%+0.28%Est. Up ≥ 999.33 (-2.0%) · Est. Down < 949.33
Trading · S&P1 Established Up (+) →+3.28%+4.37%Est. Up ≥ 991.23 (-2.8%) · Est. Down < 755.18
Trading · XLP1 Established Up (+) ↑+0.79%+1.44%Est. Up ≥ 1013.73 (-0.5%) · Est. Down < 996.38

Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 1019.26)

BandRangeDistanceTools in the cluster
R21066.00–1096.50+4.6% to +7.6%wk high ’25-03-07 1066.00 · wk high ’25-06-06 1067.08 · wk high ’25-02-14 1078.23 · ATH 05-19 1096.50
R11020.82–1035.82+0.2% to +1.6%wk high 03-06 1020.82 · wk high 10-23 1021.45 · wk high 02-20 1028.44 · wk high 05-01 1031.27 · wk high 04-10 1035.82
S1987.55–1018.00-0.1% to -3.1%wk high ’25-05-02 1018.00 · wk high 2024-12-20 1008.25 · wk high ’25-06-27 1005.84 · wk low ’25-05-30 1002.00 · wk high ’25-04-18 999.92 · wk high ’25-08-22 999.30 · wk high 06-19 995.38 · wk high ’25-04-04 995.00 · wk high 07-31 987.55
S2960.46–985.15-3.3% to -5.8%wk low 05-15 985.15 · wk low 05-01 985.12 · wk low ’25-05-16 983.00 · wk high ’25-09-12 981.00 · wk high 08-21 978.70 · … +5 more · wk low 04-17 966.00 · wk high ’25-10-17 964.00 · wk high 2024-11-08 962.00 · wk low 03-27 961.00 · wk low 03-06 960.46
S3925.00–945.28-7.3% to -9.2%wk high ’25-11-07 945.28 · wk high ’25-01-10 944.28 · wk low ’25-04-25 942.97 · 61.8% 940.49 · wk low 06-05 936.51 · … +1 more · wk low 01-30 930.30 · wk low ’25-01-31 927.18 · wk high ’25-12-05 926.32 · wk low 08-21 925.77 · wk low ’25-08-01 925.00
ATH1096.50+7.6%all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used)

Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)

Stops & phase transitions

  • Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 987.55 (-3.1%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 960.46–985.15.
  • Trend Breakdown (reference, S2 floor): Friday close < 960.46 (-5.8%): information only, no verdict impact. Next support S3 925.00–945.28.
  • Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 938.73 (-7.9%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 938.73 · Est. Down < 860.88 (-15.5%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
  • Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 991.23 · Est. Down < 755.18.

Sluymer context

  • CB Oct 13 sector table: XLP relative to the S&P is Est. Down (+) / Early Up (tactical / trading).
  • CB Oct 13: semis pulling back but “premature to conclude… the beginning of a bear market”; the Weekly Quadrant Balance “is moving toward oversold levels with early signs of bottoming”.
  • CB Oct 13: rising rates remain “the second obvious risk”; key S&P support 7508, resistance 7817 then 8053; US 10-yr “beginning to stall at its next extension level at 5.35%”.

Notes & caveats

Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLP (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Holder levels (simple S/R: 40-wk SMA, 200-day SMA, 50%/61.8% retracements, 2-yr weekly swings and prior breakouts, ATH; ≥2 tools within 3% per band): Breakout = top of R1; Profit-Taking = next band above it, else the ATH, else none (blue sky); Trade Breakdown = the 40-wk SMA (Friday close below it = flag, verdict REVIEW); Trend Breakdown (S2 floor) and Profit-Taking are reference only and do not change the verdict. Trend Score (8–16 wk) = relative strength (30 pts) + structure (30 pts) rescaled to 100: Up ≥ 60, Neutral 45–59, Down < 45, confirmed after two consecutive Friday closes; descriptive, not a forecast. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).