CIBR · Technical Trading Scorecard

APPENDIX · CIBR · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD

Held-card Trade Breakdown level = 40-wk SMA 83.48.

For adding / new entries (not used for held-position decisions)

Level	Price	From close	Note
Buy zone	$94.39–95.96	-1.3% to -2.9%	wk high 07-17, wk high 06-05
Trading stop · daily close	below $94.39	-2.9%	trading downgrade one state; re-anchor to S2 85.38–86.84
Breakout Buy Level	close above $99.15	+2.0%	top of R1 (wk low 10-16, wk low 10-02)
Trading (10–20 day) state	Early Down: Below 50-day; daily RS vs S&P Est. Down.

Scores · Trend 100.0

RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10)	20.0 + 10.0 = 30.0 / 30
Structure (6 checks)	30 / 30
Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60	100.0 / 100
Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45)	Up
Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays)	confirmed Up
Trend (confirmed)	Up
✔ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 6/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✔ No lower high vs cycle high 5/5 · ✔ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 5/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5 Weekly raw states: 09-25 Up → 10-02 Up → 10-09 Up → 10-16 Up → 10-23 Up → 10-30 Up. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only).

Scores · Trading 30.3

RS (S&P 20 + sector 10)	0.0 + 2.3 / 30
Structure	15 / 25
Coppock (daily) — negative & falling	2.5 / 25
Band position	10.5 / 20
Raw	30.3 (Early Down)
Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2)	+0
Final	30.3 Early Down
✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✔ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 3/3 · ✔ Close above 100-day SMA 4/4 · ✔ Close above 200-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✖ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 0/5

Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)

Horizon · benchmark	State	RS vs SMA	RS chg	Phase-transition price (CIBR close needed)
Trend · S&P	1 Established Up (+) →	+3.73%	+3.31%	Est. Up ≥ 97.89 (+0.7%) · Est. Down < 84.79
Trend · XLK	1 Established Up (+) →	+6.54%	+4.49%	Est. Up ≥ 95.12 (-2.2%) · Est. Down < 82.18
Trading · S&P	5 Established Down (−) ↓	-4.25%	-5.56%	Est. Up ≥ 116.13 (+19.5%) · Early Up ≥ 101.79 · Est. Down < 101.25
Trading · XLK	4 Early Down (−) ↓	-1.06%	-0.99%	Est. Up ≥ 98.68 (+1.5%) · Est. Down < 94.47

Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 97.22)

Band	Range	Distance	Tools in the cluster
R2	101.04–102.35	+3.9% to +5.3%	wk high 08-28 101.04 · wk high 08-14 102.35
R1	98.08–99.15	+0.9% to +2.0%	wk low 10-16 98.08 · wk low 10-02 99.15
S1	94.39–95.96	-1.3% to -2.9%	wk high 07-17 95.96 · wk high 06-05 94.39
S2	85.38–86.84	-10.7% to -12.2%	wk low 07-31 86.84 · 50% 85.38
S3	81.56–83.48	-14.1% to -16.1%	40-wk SMA 83.48 · 200-day SMA 83.45 · wk low 06-12 81.56
ATH	110.68	+13.8%	all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used)

Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)

Stops & phase transitions

Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 94.39 (-2.9%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 85.38–86.84.
Trend Breakdown (reference, S2 floor): Friday close < 85.38 (-12.2%): information only, no verdict impact. Next support S3 81.56–83.48.
Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 97.89 (+0.7%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 97.89 · Est. Down < 84.79 (-12.8%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 116.13 · Early Up ≥ 101.79 · Est. Down < 101.25.

Sluymer context

CB Oct 13 sector table: XLK relative to the S&P is Early Up (−) / Early Down (tactical / trading).
CB Oct 13: semis pulling back but “premature to conclude… the beginning of a bear market”; the Weekly Quadrant Balance “is moving toward oversold levels with early signs of bottoming”.
CB Oct 13: rising rates remain “the second obvious risk”; key S&P support 7508, resistance 7817 then 8053; US 10-yr “beginning to stall at its next extension level at 5.35%”.

Notes & caveats

Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLK (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Holder levels (simple S/R: 40-wk SMA, 200-day SMA, 50%/61.8% retracements, 2-yr weekly swings and prior breakouts, ATH; ≥2 tools within 3% per band): Breakout = top of R1; Profit-Taking = next band above it, else the ATH, else none (blue sky); Trade Breakdown = the 40-wk SMA (Friday close below it = flag, verdict REVIEW); Trend Breakdown (S2 floor) and Profit-Taking are reference only and do not change the verdict. Trend Score (8–16 wk) = relative strength (30 pts) + structure (30 pts) rescaled to 100: Up ≥ 60, Neutral 45–59, Down < 45, confirmed after two consecutive Friday closes; descriptive, not a forecast. ETF (cybersecurity): sector benchmark XLK. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).

Breakout Level confirms hold	Friday close above $99.15	+2.0%	top of R1 (wk low 10-16, wk low 10-02)
Profit-Taking Zone (ref.) reference · rebalance if overweight	$101.04–102.35	+3.9% to +5.3%	wk high 08-28, wk high 08-14
Trade Breakdown review thesis, no trade	Friday close below $83.48	-14.1%	40-wk SMA 83.48
Trend Breakdown (ref.) reference · no verdict impact	Friday close below $85.38	-12.2%	trend stop; next support $81.56–83.48

CIBR ETF

Trend health

Key levels for holders