TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
CCO
Cameco Corp. (NYSE: CCJ) · held position
Last Price $72.56
Unrealized G/L +225.1% (+$35,068)
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
Portfolio weight 1.47% (US)
REVIEWHigh risk · consider trim 50%High risk: Trend Down (score 8); Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA ($102.48). Consider trimming 50% if the story has weakened.
Trend health
Trend Score (8–16 wk)
● Down
Score 8/100. Lags S&P and sector; below falling 40-wk.
Opportunity cost (relative strength, weekly)
Lagging the S&P 500 for 10 weeks (-24.0% relative)
Lagging energy (XLE) for 18 weeks (-43.4% relative)
Key levels for holders
Breakout Level
confirms hold | Friday close above $78.96 | +8.8% | top of R1 (wk low ’25-11-21, wk high ’25-08-15) |
Profit-Taking Zone (ref.)
reference · rebalance if overweight | $80.32–80.53 | +10.7% to +11.0% | wk high ’25-08-01, wk low ’25-10-24 |
Trade Breakdown
review thesis, no trade | TRIGGERED · reclaim $102.48 | +41.2% | 40-wk SMA 102.48 |
Trend Breakdown (ref.)
reference · no verdict impact | Friday close below $60.98 | -16.0% | trend stop; next support $58.33–58.72 |
If broken, then…
Trade Breakdown (40-wk SMA; triggered at $102.48): review the thesis (earnings, estimates, guidance). No trade yet.
Trend Breakdown (reference only) (Friday close < $60.98): no verdict impact; reassess if the story has also weakened. Next support $58.33–58.72.
Sluymer's view: Partly agrees. Last named Aug 18: “CCO has bottomed at its 50% retracement level with pullbacks expected to be shallow” (CB Aug 18; his CCO = Cameco, we hold the CCJ listing).
Watch this week: Fri Nov 6: a Friday close ≥ $89.34 (+23.1%) lifts RS vs the S&P off Est. Down; a Friday close back above the 40-wk SMA $102.48 clears the Trade Breakdown.
APPENDIX · CCO · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARDHeld-card Trade Breakdown level = 40-wk SMA 102.48 (already below on the Friday close: Trade Breakdown triggered).
For adding / new entries (not used for held-position decisions)
| Level | Price | From close | Note |
|---|
| Buy zone | $68.96–70.82 | -2.4% to -5.0% | wk low ’25-08-01, wk low ’25-07-11, wk low ’25-08-22 |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $68.96 | -5.0% | trading downgrade one state; re-anchor to S2 60.98–62.55 |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $78.96 | +8.8% | top of R1 (wk low ’25-11-21, wk high ’25-08-15) |
| Trading (10–20 day) state | Established Down: Below 50-day; daily RS vs S&P Est. Down. |
Scores · Trend 8.3
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 0.0 + 0.0 = 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 5 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 8.3 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Down |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Down |
| Trend (confirmed) | Down |
✖ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 0/6 · ✖ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 0/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✖ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 0/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Down → 10-02 Down → 10-09 Down → 10-16 Down → 10-23 Down → 10-30 Down. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 23.4
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 0.0 + 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 5 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — negative & falling | 2.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 15.9 / 20 |
| Raw | 23.4 (Established Down) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 23.4 Established Down |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✖ Close above 200-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 0/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (CCO close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 5 Established Down (−) → | -13.98% | -4.67% | Early Up ≥ 89.82 · Est. Down < 89.34 |
| Trend · XLE | 5 Established Down (−) → | -23.34% | -8.05% | |
| Trading · S&P | 5 Established Down (−) → | -7.90% | -11.35% | Early Up ≥ 78.92 · Est. Down < 78.50 |
| Trading · XLE | 5 Established Down (−) → | -7.21% | -10.45% | Early Up ≥ 78.26 · Est. Down < 77.84 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 72.56)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 83.02–84.29 | +14.4% to +16.2% | wk high ’25-08-29 83.02 · wk low 07-17 83.15 · wk low 07-31 83.50 · wk low 10-02 83.80 · wk low ’25-12-19 84.29 |
| R2 | 80.32–80.53 | +10.7% to +11.0% | wk high ’25-08-01 80.32 · wk low ’25-10-24 80.53 |
| R1 | 77.70–78.96 | +7.1% to +8.8% | wk low ’25-11-21 77.70 · wk high ’25-08-15 78.96 |
| S1 | 68.96–70.82 | -2.4% to -5.0% | wk low ’25-08-01 70.82 · wk low ’25-07-11 69.32 · wk low ’25-08-22 68.96 |
| S2 | 60.98–62.55 | -13.8% to -16.0% | wk high 2024-12-06 62.55 · wk high ’25-05-30 62.27 · wk high 2024-11-22 60.98 |
| S3 | 58.33–58.72 | -19.1% to -19.6% | wk high 2024-10-25 58.72 · wk high ’25-01-24 58.33 |
| ATH | 135.24 | +86.4% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 68.96 (-5.0%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 60.98–62.55.
- Trend Breakdown (reference, S2 floor): Friday close < 60.98 (-16.0%): information only, no verdict impact. Next support S3 58.33–58.72.
- Trend vs S&P: above its 16-wk avg ≥ 89.82 · Est. Down < 89.34 (+23.1%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Early Up ≥ 78.92 · Est. Down < 78.50.
Sluymer context
- CB Aug 18: “CCO is oversold intermediate-term and beginning to rally back from support at its 50% retracement level.”
- CB Aug 18 p58: “CCO has bottomed at its 50% retracement level with pullbacks expected to be shallow.”
- CB Oct 13 sector table: XLE relative to the S&P is Est. Up / Early Up (tactical / trading).
- CB Oct 13: semis pulling back but “premature to conclude… the beginning of a bear market”; the Weekly Quadrant Balance “is moving toward oversold levels with early signs of bottoming”.
- CB Oct 13: rising rates remain “the second obvious risk”; key S&P support 7508, resistance 7817 then 8053; US 10-yr “beginning to stall at its next extension level at 5.35%”.
Notes & caveats
Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLE (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Holder levels (simple S/R: 40-wk SMA, 200-day SMA, 50%/61.8% retracements, 2-yr weekly swings and prior breakouts, ATH; ≥2 tools within 3% per band): Breakout = top of R1; Profit-Taking = next band above it, else the ATH, else none (blue sky); Trade Breakdown = the 40-wk SMA (Friday close below it = flag, verdict REVIEW); Trend Breakdown (S2 floor) and Profit-Taking are reference only and do not change the verdict. Trend Score (8–16 wk) = relative strength (30 pts) + structure (30 pts) rescaled to 100: Up ≥ 60, Neutral 45–59, Down < 45, confirmed after two consecutive Friday closes; descriptive, not a forecast. PIM lists CCO (Cameco's TSX symbol) in the US book; we use the NYSE listing CCJ in USD. Sluymer refers to CCO. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).