TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
AEM
Agnico Eagle Mines · held position
Last Price $167.28
Unrealized G/L +94.7% (+$35,302)
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
Portfolio weight 1.96% (US)
REVIEWHigh risk · consider trim 50%High risk: Trend Down (score 20); Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA ($187.87). Consider trimming 50% if the story has weakened.
Trend health
Trend Score (8–16 wk)
● Down
Score 20/100. Lags S&P and sector; below falling 40-wk.
Opportunity cost (relative strength, weekly)
Lagging the S&P 500 for 2 weeks (-11.8% relative)
Lagging materials (XLB) for 2 weeks (-15.8% relative)
Key levels for holders
Breakout Level
confirms hold | Friday close above $178.02 | +6.4% | top of R1 (61.8% retr., wk high ’25-11-14) |
Profit-Taking Zone (ref.)
reference · rebalance if overweight | $182.21–187.50 | +8.9% to +12.1% | wk high 06-19, wk high ’25-12-26, wk high 05-29 |
Trade Breakdown
review thesis, no trade | TRIGGERED · reclaim $187.87 | +12.3% | 40-wk SMA 187.87 |
Trend Breakdown (ref.)
reference · no verdict impact | Friday close below $149.70 | -10.5% | trend stop; next support $134.38–137.81 |
If broken, then…
Trade Breakdown (40-wk SMA; triggered at $187.87): review the thesis (earnings, estimates, guidance). No trade yet.
Trend Breakdown (reference only) (Friday close < $149.70): no verdict impact; reassess if the story has also weakened. Next support $134.38–137.81.
Sluymer's view: Agrees. AEM last named Aug 18: “weekly momentum continues to build positively from oversold levels… a near-term pause is likely” at C$269–288 (≈US$189.12–202.48 @ USD/CAD 1.4224, Oct 9) (CB Aug 18; his AEM levels are the TSX listing in C$); since then gold “broke below 4273 support” (CB Oct 13).
Watch this week: Fri Nov 6: a Friday close ≥ $120.80 (-27.8%) keeps RS vs the S&P at Early Down or better; a Friday close back above the 40-wk SMA $187.87 clears the Trade Breakdown.
APPENDIX · AEM · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARDHeld-card Trade Breakdown level = 40-wk SMA 187.87 (already below on the Friday close: Trade Breakdown triggered).
For adding / new entries (not used for held-position decisions)
| Level | Price | From close | Note |
|---|
| Buy zone | $160.15–165.00 | -1.4% to -4.3% | wk low 01-02, wk low ’25-12-12, wk low ’25-10-10 |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $160.15 | -4.3% | trading downgrade one state; re-anchor to S2 149.70–150.70 |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $178.02 | +6.4% | top of R1 (61.8% retr., wk high ’25-11-14) |
| Trading (10–20 day) state | Established Down: Below 50-day; daily RS vs S&P Est. Down. |
Scores · Trend 19.8
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 4.6 + 2.3 = 6.9 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 5 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 19.8 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Down |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Down |
| Trend (confirmed) | Down |
✖ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 0/6 · ✖ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 0/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✖ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 0/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Up → 10-02 Up → 10-09 Up → 10-16 Up → 10-23 Down → 10-30 Down. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 18.0
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 0.0 + 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 0 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — negative & falling | 2.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 15.5 / 20 |
| Raw | 18.0 (Established Down) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 18.0 Established Down |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✖ Close above 200-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 0/3 · ✖ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 0/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (AEM close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 4 Early Down (−) → | -8.25% | -11.83% | Est. Up ≥ 183.48 (+9.7%) · Est. Down < 120.80 |
| Trend · XLB | 4 Early Down (−) → | -11.72% | -15.75% | Est. Up ≥ 190.80 (+14.1%) · Est. Down < 129.79 |
| Trading · S&P | 5 Established Down (−) → | -5.18% | -3.01% | Est. Up ≥ 197.68 (+18.2%) · Early Up ≥ 177.10 · Est. Down < 176.16 |
| Trading · XLB | 5 Established Down (−) → | -8.32% | -5.02% | Early Up ≥ 182.60 · Est. Down < 181.63 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 167.28)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 187.87–193.30 | +12.3% to +15.6% | 40-wk SMA 187.87 · 50% 188.78 · 200-day SMA 189.03 · wk high 10-16 192.39 · wk low 09-04 193.30 |
| R2 | 182.21–187.50 | +8.9% to +12.1% | wk high 06-19 182.21 · wk high ’25-12-26 183.98 · wk high 05-29 184.75 · wk low 02-06 187.04 · wk high ’25-10-17 187.50 |
| R1 | 173.10–178.02 | +3.5% to +6.4% | 61.8% 173.10 · wk high ’25-11-14 174.67 · wk low 03-20 175.56 · wk high ’25-12-05 176.00 · wk low 05-08 178.02 |
| S1 | 160.15–165.00 | -1.4% to -4.3% | wk low 01-02 165.00 · wk low ’25-12-12 160.20 · wk low ’25-10-10 160.15 |
| S2 | 149.70–150.70 | -9.9% to -10.5% | wk low 06-12 150.70 · wk low ’25-10-31 150.68 · wk low ’25-09-19 149.70 |
| S3 | 134.38–137.81 | -17.6% to -19.7% | wk high ’25-08-08 137.81 · wk low 07-17 134.38 |
| ATH | 255.24 | +52.6% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 160.15 (-4.3%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 149.70–150.70.
- Trend Breakdown (reference, S2 floor): Friday close < 149.70 (-10.5%): information only, no verdict impact. Next support S3 134.38–137.81.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 183.48 (+9.7%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 183.48 · Est. Down < 120.80 (-27.8%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 197.68 · Early Up ≥ 177.10 · Est. Down < 176.16.
Sluymer context
- CB Aug 18 p61: “AEM’s weekly momentum continues to build positively from oversold levels as it approaches trading resistance at the 50-62% retracement levels between 269-288 where a near-term pause is likely.” Levels are C$ (TSX listing): C$269–288 (≈US$189.12–202.48 @ USD/CAD 1.4224, Oct 9).
- CB Oct 13: “Gold broke below 4273 support challenging its next support band between 4053-4176”; weekly: “a break below 3943 support would signal a failed bottoming pattern”.
- CB Oct 13 sector table: XLB relative to the S&P is Est. Down / Est. Down (+) (tactical / trading).
- CB Oct 13: semis pulling back but “premature to conclude… the beginning of a bear market”; the Weekly Quadrant Balance “is moving toward oversold levels with early signs of bottoming”.
- CB Oct 13: rising rates remain “the second obvious risk”; key S&P support 7508, resistance 7817 then 8053; US 10-yr “beginning to stall at its next extension level at 5.35%”.
Notes & caveats
Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLB (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Holder levels (simple S/R: 40-wk SMA, 200-day SMA, 50%/61.8% retracements, 2-yr weekly swings and prior breakouts, ATH; ≥2 tools within 3% per band): Breakout = top of R1; Profit-Taking = next band above it, else the ATH, else none (blue sky); Trade Breakdown = the 40-wk SMA (Friday close below it = flag, verdict REVIEW); Trend Breakdown (S2 floor) and Profit-Taking are reference only and do not change the verdict. Trend Score (8–16 wk) = relative strength (30 pts) + structure (30 pts) rescaled to 100: Up ≥ 60, Neutral 45–59, Down < 45, confirmed after two consecutive Friday closes; descriptive, not a forecast. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).