AAPL

APPENDIX · AAPL · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD

Held-card Trade Breakdown level = 40-wk SMA 298.56.

For adding / new entries (not used for held-position decisions)

Level	Price	From close	Note
Buy zone	$317.40–325.81	-1.8% to -4.4%	wk low 10-02, wk high 06-12
Trading stop · daily close	below $317.40	-4.4%	trading downgrade one state; re-anchor to S2 297.34–300.57
Breakout Buy Level	close above $344.57	+3.8%	top of R1 (wk high 07-17, wk high 07-31)
Trading (10–20 day) state	Neutral: Below 50-day; daily RS vs S&P Early Down.

Scores · Trend 100.0

RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10)	20.0 + 10.0 = 30.0 / 30
Structure (6 checks)	30 / 30
Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60	100.0 / 100
Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45)	Up
Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays)	confirmed Up
Trend (confirmed)	Up
✔ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 6/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✔ No lower high vs cycle high 5/5 · ✔ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 5/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5 Weekly raw states: 09-25 Up → 10-02 Up → 10-09 Up → 10-16 Up → 10-23 Up → 10-30 Up. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only).

Scores · Trading 51.5

RS (S&P 20 + sector 10)	4.6 + 10.0 / 30
Structure	15 / 25
Coppock (daily) — positive but decelerating	12.5 / 25
Band position	9.4 / 20
Raw	51.5 (Neutral)
Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2)	+0
Final	51.5 Neutral
✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✔ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 3/3 · ✔ Close above 100-day SMA 4/4 · ✔ Close above 200-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✖ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 0/5

Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)

Horizon · benchmark	State	RS vs SMA	RS chg	Phase-transition price (AAPL close needed)
Trend · S&P	1 Established Up (+) →	+5.82%	+1.39%	Est. Up ≥ 325.64 (-1.9%) · Est. Down < 310.11
Trend · XLK	1 Established Up (+) →	+8.60%	+2.55%	Est. Up ≥ 316.60 (-4.6%) · Est. Down < 301.24
Trading · S&P	4 Early Down (−) ↓	-1.97%	-2.97%	Est. Up ≥ 339.64 (+2.3%) · Est. Down < 326.33
Trading · XLK	1 Established Up (+) →	+1.25%	+1.72%	Est. Up ≥ 329.38 (-0.8%) · Est. Down < 256.63

Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 331.90)

Band	Range	Distance	Tools in the cluster
R2	345.34–351.73	+4.0% to +6.0%	wk high 09-25 345.34 · ATH 10-23 351.73
R1	334.99–344.57	+0.9% to +3.8%	wk high 07-17 334.99 · wk high 07-31 344.57
S1	317.40–325.81	-1.8% to -4.4%	wk low 10-02 325.81 · wk high 06-12 317.40
S2	297.34–300.57	-9.4% to -10.4%	wk low 08-14 300.57 · wk low 07-31 300.00 · 50% 298.62 · 40-wk SMA 298.56 · 200-day SMA 297.34
S3	280.15–288.62	-13.0% to -15.6%	wk high ’25-12-05 288.62 · wk low 06-12 287.38 · 61.8% 286.09 · wk high 02-06 280.91 · wk high ’25-12-19 280.15
ATH	351.73	+6.0%	all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used)

Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)

Stops & phase transitions

Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 317.40 (-4.4%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 297.34–300.57.
Trend Breakdown (reference, S2 floor): Friday close < 297.34 (-10.4%): information only, no verdict impact. Next support S3 280.15–288.62.
Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 325.64 (-1.9%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 325.64 · Est. Down < 310.11 (-6.6%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 339.64 · Est. Down < 326.33.

Sluymer context

CB Oct 13: “The SOX Semiconductor remains a lightning rod… Another pullback is underway”; “we expect pullbacks will be short lived.”
CB Oct 13 sector table: XLK relative to the S&P is Early Up (−) / Early Down (tactical / trading).
CB Oct 13: semis pulling back but “premature to conclude… the beginning of a bear market”; the Weekly Quadrant Balance “is moving toward oversold levels with early signs of bottoming”.
CB Oct 13: rising rates remain “the second obvious risk”; key S&P support 7508, resistance 7817 then 8053; US 10-yr “beginning to stall at its next extension level at 5.35%”.

Notes & caveats

Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLK (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Holder levels (simple S/R: 40-wk SMA, 200-day SMA, 50%/61.8% retracements, 2-yr weekly swings and prior breakouts, ATH; ≥2 tools within 3% per band): Breakout = top of R1; Profit-Taking = next band above it, else the ATH, else none (blue sky); Trade Breakdown = the 40-wk SMA (Friday close below it = flag, verdict REVIEW); Trend Breakdown (S2 floor) and Profit-Taking are reference only and do not change the verdict. Trend Score (8–16 wk) = relative strength (30 pts) + structure (30 pts) rescaled to 100: Up ≥ 60, Neutral 45–59, Down < 45, confirmed after two consecutive Friday closes; descriptive, not a forecast. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).

Breakout Level confirms hold	Friday close above $344.57	+3.8%	top of R1 (wk high 07-17, wk high 07-31)
Profit-Taking Zone (ref.) reference · rebalance if overweight	$345.34–351.73	+4.0% to +6.0%	wk high 09-25, ATH 10-23
Trade Breakdown review thesis, no trade	Friday close below $298.56	-10.0%	40-wk SMA 298.56
Trend Breakdown (ref.) reference · no verdict impact	Friday close below $297.34	-10.4%	trend stop; next support $280.15–288.62

Trend health

Key levels for holders