$124.86
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
USFL alternative · entry card
APPENDIX · WMT · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 83.3
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 20.0 + 10.0 = 30.0 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 20 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 83.3 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Up |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Up |
| Trend (confirmed) | Up |
✔ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 6/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 5/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✖ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 0/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Down → 10-02 Down → 10-09 Down → 10-16 Up → 10-23 Up → 10-30 Up. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 70.9
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 20.0 + 10.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 25 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — positive but rolling over from >80th pctile | 6.2 / 25 |
| Band position | 9.7 / 20 |
| Raw | 70.9 (Early Up) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 70.9 Early Up |
| ✔ Close above 50-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 3/3 · ✔ Close above 100-day SMA 4/4 · ✔ Close above 200-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (WMT close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 1 Established Up (+) → | +12.33% | +5.04% | Est. Up ≥ 109.84 (-12.0%) · Est. Down < 106.58 |
| Trend · XLP | 1 Established Up (+) → | +5.76% | +1.86% | Est. Up ≥ 117.48 (-5.9%) · Early Up ≥ 116.89 · Est. Down < 116.27 |
| Trading · S&P | 1 Established Up (+) → | +5.25% | +5.04% | Est. Up ≥ 119.29 (-4.5%) · Est. Down < 87.40 |
| Trading · XLP | 1 Established Up (+) → | +2.73% | +2.09% | Est. Up ≥ 121.98 (-2.3%) · Est. Down < 107.95 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 124.86)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 134.69–135.16 | +7.9% to +8.2% | wk high 02-20 134.69 · ATH 05-19 135.16 |
| R2 | 129.69–133.37 | +3.9% to +6.8% | wk high 04-10 129.69 · wk high 05-01 133.37 |
| R1 | 125.91–128.75 | +0.8% to +3.1% | wk low 05-01 125.91 · wk high 03-20 127.19 · wk high 03-06 128.75 |
| S1 | 121.05–122.94 | -1.5% to -3.1% | wk high 06-19 122.94 · wk low 03-06 121.62 · wk low 04-10 121.33 · wk low 02-20 121.05 |
| S2 | 115.48–118.58 | -5.0% to -7.5% | 200-day SMA 118.58 · 40-wk SMA 118.53 · wk high 07-17 118.09 · wk low 03-20 118.02 · wk high ’25-12-19 117.45 · 50% 117.02 · wk high 08-21 116.87 · wk high 07-31 116.03 · wk low 01-30 115.48 |
| S3 | 109.35–112.73 | -9.7% to -12.4% | wk low 06-05 112.73 · wk high 09-25 111.23 · wk low ’25-12-26 110.55 · wk low 01-09 109.81 · wk high ’25-10-17 109.58 · wk high 09-04 109.35 |
| ATH | 135.16 | +8.2% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 121.05 (-3.1%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 115.48–118.58.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 115.48 (-7.5%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 109.35–112.73.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 109.84 (-12.0%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 109.84 · Est. Down < 106.58 (-14.6%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 119.29 · Est. Down < 87.40.
Sluymer context
- 2026-09-22 chartbook: “WMT’s correction is becoming oversold with very early signs of bottoming at its 50-62% support band between 101-107”
- 2026-10-13 chartbook: “WMT is bottoming at its 50-62% retracement band between 100-107. 47”
Notes & caveats
PAG U.S. Focus List alternative, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: issuer file as of 2026-10-14 (RBC PAG "Guided Portfolio Large Cap Equity Grid", last updated October 14, 2026 (u.s._focus_list_current.pdf; Focus List names, weights and Alternatives), Gmail (sc.assistant80@gmail.com), "USFL and CFL equity grids" from stephen.k.chang@rbc.com, Oct 21, 2026 3:20 PM PT; matches the Oct 14, 2026 U.S. Focus List Change Report); Grid Alternative (Consumer Staples; no Focus List weight). Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLP (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
