$303.43
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
USFL alternative · entry card
APPENDIX · UNP · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 91.7
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 20.0 + 10.0 = 30.0 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 25 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 91.7 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Up |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Up |
| Trend (confirmed) | Up |
✔ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 6/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 5/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Neutral → 10-02 Neutral → 10-09 Up → 10-16 Up → 10-23 Up → 10-30 Up. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 85.8
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 20.0 + 9.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 22 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — positive & rising | 25.0 / 25 |
| Band position | 9.8 / 20 |
| Raw | 85.8 (Established Up) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 85.8 Established Up |
| ✔ Close above 50-day SMA 5/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✔ Close above 100-day SMA 4/4 · ✔ Close above 200-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (UNP close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 1 Established Up (+) → | +5.04% | +6.28% | Est. Up ≥ 289.84 (-4.5%) · Early Up ≥ 289.04 · Est. Down < 287.50 |
| Trend · XLI | 1 Established Up (+) → | +8.64% | +5.40% | Est. Up ≥ 280.46 (-7.6%) · Est. Down < 241.61 |
| Trading · S&P | 1 Established Up (+) → | +4.19% | +2.51% | Est. Up ≥ 292.75 (-3.5%) · Est. Down < 216.10 |
| Trading · XLI | 1 Established Up (−) → | +0.69% | -0.20% | Est. Up ≥ 302.69 (-0.2%) · Est. Down < 252.41 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 303.43)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R1 | 314.15–315.99 | +3.5% to +4.1% | wk high 08-28 314.15 · ATH 07-23 315.99 |
| S1 | 279.70–284.79 | -6.1% to -7.8% | wk low 07-31 284.79 · wk high 05-29 279.70 |
| S2 | 267.98–274.79 | -9.4% to -11.7% | wk high 04-24 274.79 · 40-wk SMA 272.69 · 200-day SMA 271.14 · wk low 09-25 268.26 · wk high 03-06 268.14 · 50% 267.98 |
| S3 | 255.22–261.04 | -14.0% to -15.9% | wk low 05-15 261.04 · wk low 06-05 258.66 · wk high ’25-01-31 256.84 · 61.8% 256.66 · wk low 06-26 255.22 |
| ATH | 315.99 | +4.1% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 279.70 (-7.8%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 267.98–274.79.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 267.98 (-11.7%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 255.22–261.04.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 289.84 (-4.5%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 289.04 · Est. Down < 287.50 (-5.2%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 292.75 · Est. Down < 216.10.
Sluymer context
- Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Notes & caveats
PAG U.S. Focus List alternative, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: issuer file as of 2026-10-14 (RBC PAG "Guided Portfolio Large Cap Equity Grid", last updated October 14, 2026 (u.s._focus_list_current.pdf; Focus List names, weights and Alternatives), Gmail (sc.assistant80@gmail.com), "USFL and CFL equity grids" from stephen.k.chang@rbc.com, Oct 21, 2026 3:20 PM PT; matches the Oct 14, 2026 U.S. Focus List Change Report); Grid Alternative (Industrials; no Focus List weight). Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLI (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
