$137.63
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
USFL constituent · entry card
| Buy zone (breakout retest) | — | — | no confirmed breakout, so no retest zone |
| Profit-Taking Zone | $145.12–148.57 | +5.4% to +7.9% | wk high ’25-10-03, wk high ’25-08-22, wk low 01-30 |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $127.48 | -7.4% | trading downgrade |
| Trend stop · Friday close | below $122.78 | -10.8% | trend downgrade one state |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $141.50 | +2.8% | top of R1 (wk low ’25-10-10, wk low ’25-09-26) |
APPENDIX · TJX · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 8.3
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 0.0 + 0.0 = 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 5 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 8.3 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Down |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Neutral; Down pending 1/2 |
| Trend (confirmed) | Neutral |
✖ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 0/6 · ✖ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 0/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✖ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 0/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Down → 10-02 Down → 10-09 Down → 10-16 Neutral → 10-23 Neutral → 10-30 Down. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 17.5
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 4.6 + 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 5 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — negative & falling | 2.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 5.4 / 20 |
| Raw | 17.5 (Established Down) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 17.5 Established Down |
| ✔ Close above 50-day SMA 5/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✖ Close above 200-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 0/3 · ✖ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 0/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (TJX close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 5 Established Down (−) ↓ | -0.42% | -3.77% | Est. Up ≥ 168.12 (+22.2%) · Early Up ≥ 140.20 · Est. Down < 139.46 |
| Trend · XLY | 5 Established Down (−) ↓ | -2.28% | -7.17% | Est. Up ≥ 163.01 (+18.4%) · Early Up ≥ 143.25 · Est. Down < 142.49 |
| Trading · S&P | 4 Early Down (−) → | -2.62% | -0.71% | Est. Up ≥ 141.81 (+3.0%) · Est. Down < 135.70 |
| Trading · XLY | 5 Established Down (−) ↓ | -6.01% | -3.60% | Est. Up ≥ 168.73 (+22.6%) · Early Up ≥ 146.55 · Est. Down < 145.77 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 137.63)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 149.61–152.34 | +8.7% to +10.7% | wk low 07-03 149.61 · 200-day SMA 151.02 · 40-wk SMA 151.12 · wk low 01-02 152.05 · wk low 03-20 152.18 · 61.8% 152.30 · wk low 06-05 152.34 |
| R2 | 145.12–148.57 | +5.4% to +7.9% | wk high ’25-10-03 145.12 · wk high ’25-08-22 145.58 · wk low 01-30 145.83 · wk low 05-15 146.14 · wk high ’25-10-17 146.46 · wk low 07-17 148.27 · wk high 10-23 148.57 |
| R1 | 138.23–141.50 | +0.4% to +2.8% | wk low ’25-10-10 138.23 · wk low ’25-09-26 138.67 · wk low ’25-11-07 138.82 · wk high ’25-09-05 141.50 |
| S1 | 127.48–131.30 | -4.6% to -7.4% | wk high ’25-04-18 131.30 · wk high ’25-06-06 129.07 · wk high 2024-11-29 128.00 · wk high 2024-12-13 127.91 · wk high ’25-02-28 127.58 · wk high ’25-02-07 127.48 |
| S2 | 122.78–126.20 | -8.3% to -10.8% | wk high ’25-07-11 126.20 · wk low ’25-05-23 124.92 · wk low 09-18 122.78 |
| S3 | 119.84–122.25 | -11.2% to -12.9% | wk low ’25-04-25 122.25 · wk high 2024-11-15 122.10 · wk low ’25-02-21 120.67 · wk low ’25-06-27 119.90 · wk low ’25-07-18 119.84 |
| ATH | 170.00 | +23.5% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 127.48 (-7.4%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 122.78–126.20.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 122.78 (-10.8%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 119.84–122.25.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 168.12 (+22.2%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 140.20 · Est. Down < 139.46 (+1.3%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 141.81 · Est. Down < 135.70.
Sluymer context
- 2026-09-22 chartbook: “TJX – After reversing its 2022-2026 uptrend, TJX is oversold with early signs of bottoming at support near 125.”
Notes & caveats
PAG U.S. Focus List holding, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: issuer file as of 2026-10-14 (RBC PAG "Guided Portfolio Large Cap Equity Grid", last updated October 14, 2026 (u.s._focus_list_current.pdf; Focus List names, weights and Alternatives), Gmail (sc.assistant80@gmail.com), "USFL and CFL equity grids" from stephen.k.chang@rbc.com, Oct 21, 2026 3:20 PM PT; matches the Oct 14, 2026 U.S. Focus List Change Report); List weight 2.50%. Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLY (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
