$63.42
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
USFL alternative · entry card
APPENDIX · NFLX · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 0.0
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 0.0 + 0.0 = 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 0 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 0.0 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Down |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Down |
| Trend (confirmed) | Down |
✖ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 0/6 · ✖ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 0/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 0/5 · ✖ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 0/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Down → 10-02 Down → 10-09 Down → 10-16 Down → 10-23 Down → 10-30 Down. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 16.7
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 2.0 + 7.7 / 30 |
| Structure | 0 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — negative & falling | 2.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 4.5 / 20 |
| Raw | 16.7 (Established Down) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 16.7 Established Down |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✖ Close above 200-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 0/3 · ✖ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 0/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (NFLX close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 5 Established Down (−) → | -13.44% | -11.06% | Est. Up ≥ 81.42 (+28.4%) · Early Up ≥ 72.02 · Est. Down < 71.64 |
| Trend · XLC | 5 Established Down (−) → | -5.62% | -2.80% | Est. Up ≥ 66.19 (+4.4%) · Est. Down < 65.83 |
| Trading · S&P | 5 Established Down (+) → | -2.41% | +4.25% | Est. Up ≥ 80.00 (+26.1%) · Early Up ≥ 64.86 · Est. Down < 64.51 |
| Trading · XLC | 2 Early Up (+) ↑ | +0.55% | +1.98% | Est. Up ≥ 66.03 (+4.1%) · Early Up ≥ 63.14 · Est. Down < 62.80 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 63.42)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 73.07–75.23 | +15.2% to +18.6% | wk high 10-16 73.07 · wk low 02-27 75.01 · wk low 02-13 75.23 |
| R2 | 70.11–70.86 | +10.5% to +11.7% | wk low 09-18 70.11 · wk low 06-26 70.86 |
| R1 | 65.08–66.54 | +2.6% to +4.9% | wk low 07-17 65.08 · wk low 10-09 66.54 |
| S1–S3 | N/A | N/A | no support band: no 2 or more tools cluster within 3% below the price |
| ATH | 134.12 | +111.5% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < N/A: trading downgrades one state, re-anchor: no support nearby.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): No support nearby: only one support band exists below the price, so there is no separate trend stop.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 81.42 (+28.4%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 72.02 · Est. Down < 71.64 (+13.0%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 80.00 · Early Up ≥ 64.86 · Est. Down < 64.51.
Sluymer context
- 2026-08-18 chartbook: “NFLX is oversold and bottoming at support near its rising 200-week ma and 50-62% retracement levels.”
Notes & caveats
PAG U.S. Focus List alternative, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: issuer file as of 2026-10-14 (RBC PAG "Guided Portfolio Large Cap Equity Grid", last updated October 14, 2026 (u.s._focus_list_current.pdf; Focus List names, weights and Alternatives), Gmail (sc.assistant80@gmail.com), "USFL and CFL equity grids" from stephen.k.chang@rbc.com, Oct 21, 2026 3:20 PM PT; matches the Oct 14, 2026 U.S. Focus List Change Report); Grid Alternative (Communication Services; no Focus List weight). Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLC (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
