$84.33
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
USFL constituent · entry card
| Buy zone (breakout retest) | — | — | no confirmed breakout, so no retest zone |
| Profit-Taking Zone | $87.33–89.90 | +3.6% to +6.6% | 200-day SMA, wk high 08-21, 40-wk SMA |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $81.64 | -3.2% | trading downgrade |
| Trend stop · Friday close | below $78.36 | -7.1% | trend downgrade one state |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $86.74 | +2.9% | top of R1 (wk high 09-11, wk high 2024-10-25) |
APPENDIX · NEE · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 35.7
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 15.4 + 1.0 = 16.4 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 5 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 35.7 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Down |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Down |
| Trend (confirmed) | Down |
✖ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 0/6 · ✖ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 0/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✖ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 0/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Down → 10-02 Down → 10-09 Down → 10-16 Down → 10-23 Down → 10-30 Down. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 74.5
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 20.0 + 10.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 14 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — positive & rising | 25.0 / 25 |
| Band position | 5.5 / 20 |
| Raw | 74.5 (Early Up) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 74.5 Early Up |
| ✔ Close above 50-day SMA 5/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✔ Close above 100-day SMA 4/4 · ✖ Close above 200-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 0/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (NEE close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 2 Early Up (+) ↑ | +2.07% | +6.00% | Est. Up ≥ 94.57 (+12.1%) · Early Up ≥ 81.68 · Est. Down < 81.25 |
| Trend · XLU | 5 Established Down (+) ↓ | -0.29% | +1.95% | Est. Up ≥ 85.80 (+1.7%) · Early Up ≥ 84.09 · Est. Down < 83.64 |
| Trading · S&P | 1 Established Up (+) → | +5.36% | +4.72% | Est. Up ≥ 80.49 (-4.6%) · Est. Down < 59.14 |
| Trading · XLU | 1 Established Up (+) → | +1.79% | +2.00% | Est. Up ≥ 83.16 (-1.4%) · Est. Down < 75.70 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 84.33)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 90.99–92.58 | +7.9% to +9.8% | wk high 07-31 90.99 · wk low 05-08 92.58 |
| R2 | 87.33–89.90 | +3.6% to +6.6% | 200-day SMA 87.33 · wk high 08-21 87.52 · 40-wk SMA 87.57 · wk low 03-20 89.17 · wk low 04-24 89.90 |
| R1 | 84.38–86.74 | +0.1% to +2.9% | wk high 09-11 84.38 · wk high 2024-10-25 86.00 · wk high 2024-10-04 86.10 · 50% 86.69 · wk high ’25-10-17 86.74 |
| S1 | 81.64–83.84 | -0.6% to -3.2% | 61.8% 83.84 · wk low 08-07 83.49 · wk low 06-12 83.38 · wk low ’25-11-21 81.64 |
| S2 | 78.36–80.75 | -4.2% to -7.1% | wk low 09-04 80.75 · wk low ’25-11-07 80.60 · wk low 2024-10-11 79.66 · wk low ’25-12-12 79.50 · wk high 2024-11-29 79.38 · wk low ’25-12-26 78.72 · wk high ’25-07-25 78.46 · wk low 01-09 78.36 |
| S3 | 75.21–77.42 | -8.2% to -10.8% | wk high ’25-08-22 77.42 · wk high ’25-03-14 76.29 · wk high ’25-06-20 75.30 · wk high ’25-05-23 75.21 |
| ATH | 98.75 | +17.1% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 81.64 (-3.2%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 78.36–80.75.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 78.36 (-7.1%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 75.21–77.42.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 94.57 (+12.1%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 81.68 · Est. Down < 81.25 (-3.7%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 80.49 · Est. Down < 59.14.
Sluymer context
- Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Notes & caveats
PAG U.S. Focus List holding, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: issuer file as of 2026-10-14 (RBC PAG "Guided Portfolio Large Cap Equity Grid", last updated October 14, 2026 (u.s._focus_list_current.pdf; Focus List names, weights and Alternatives), Gmail (sc.assistant80@gmail.com), "USFL and CFL equity grids" from stephen.k.chang@rbc.com, Oct 21, 2026 3:20 PM PT; matches the Oct 14, 2026 U.S. Focus List Change Report); List weight 2.50%. Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLU (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
