$186.09
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
USFL constituent · entry card
| Buy zone (breakout retest) | — | — | no confirmed breakout, so no retest zone |
| Profit-Taking Zone | $192.53–194.59 | +3.5% to +4.6% | 50% retr., wk high 01-16, wk high 10-16 |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $181.98 | -2.2% | trading downgrade |
| Trend stop · Friday close | below $176.44 | -5.2% | trend downgrade one state |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $188.68 | +1.4% | top of R1 (wk low 05-15, wk high 02-06) |
APPENDIX · MS · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 21.7
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 2.0 + 1.0 = 3.0 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 10 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 21.7 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Down |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Down |
| Trend (confirmed) | Down |
✖ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 0/6 · ✖ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 0/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Down → 10-02 Down → 10-09 Down → 10-16 Down → 10-23 Down → 10-30 Down. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 58.7
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 18.0 + 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 8 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — positive & rising | 25.0 / 25 |
| Band position | 7.7 / 20 |
| Raw | 58.7 (Neutral) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 58.7 Neutral |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✖ Close above 200-day SMA 0/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (MS close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 5 Established Down (+) → | -8.67% | +3.13% | Early Up ≥ 201.18 · Est. Down < 200.11 |
| Trend · XLF | 5 Established Down (+) → | -9.57% | +0.28% | Early Up ≥ 203.50 · Est. Down < 202.42 |
| Trading · S&P | 1 Established Up (−) ↑ | +2.54% | -0.10% | Est. Up ≥ 182.22 (-2.1%) · Est. Down < 170.69 |
| Trading · XLF | 5 Established Down (−) ↓ | -0.87% | -2.49% | Est. Up ≥ 211.89 (+13.9%) · Early Up ≥ 188.04 · Est. Down < 187.04 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 186.09)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 202.94–208.91 | +9.1% to +12.3% | wk low 07-31 202.94 · wk low 06-12 205.83 · wk low 07-03 206.72 · wk low 08-21 207.32 · wk low 07-17 207.40 · wk low 09-04 208.91 |
| R2 | 192.53–194.59 | +3.5% to +4.6% | 50% 192.53 · wk high 01-16 192.68 · wk high 10-16 193.30 · 200-day SMA 194.29 · 40-wk SMA 194.30 · wk high 04-17 194.59 |
| R1 | 186.45–188.68 | +0.2% to +1.4% | wk low 05-15 186.45 · wk high 02-06 188.68 |
| S1 | 181.98–184.90 | -0.6% to -2.2% | wk low 05-01 184.90 · 61.8% 183.15 · wk low 10-02 182.47 · wk high ’25-12-26 182.34 · wk high ’25-12-12 181.98 |
| S2 | 176.44–177.95 | -4.4% to -5.2% | wk low 01-23 177.95 · wk high 02-27 177.83 · wk low 01-02 177.14 · wk low 10-16 176.44 |
| S3 | 171.77–172.58 | -7.3% to -7.7% | wk low ’25-12-19 172.58 · wk high ’25-11-14 171.77 |
| ATH | 232.25 | +24.8% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 181.98 (-2.2%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 176.44–177.95.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 176.44 (-5.2%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 171.77–172.58.
- Trend vs S&P: above its 16-wk avg ≥ 201.18 · Est. Down < 200.11 (+7.5%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 182.22 · Est. Down < 170.69.
Sluymer context
- 2026-10-06 chartbook: “MS is weak but back to trading support at its 62% retracement (right chart) with short-term momentum oversold.”
Notes & caveats
PAG U.S. Focus List holding, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: issuer file as of 2026-10-14 (RBC PAG "Guided Portfolio Large Cap Equity Grid", last updated October 14, 2026 (u.s._focus_list_current.pdf; Focus List names, weights and Alternatives), Gmail (sc.assistant80@gmail.com), "USFL and CFL equity grids" from stephen.k.chang@rbc.com, Oct 21, 2026 3:20 PM PT; matches the Oct 14, 2026 U.S. Focus List Change Report); List weight 2.50%. Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLF (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
